The assertion I've seen fairly often in the last week or so is that the credit markets are shutting down - businesses can't get the credit they need to operate.
Now I run a business, so I understand in my own small way the need for credit. We have a loan outstanding, a credit line, credit cards, and even a home equity line of credit (with no balance).
Nobody's called us up or sent us a letter saying "We're calling your business loan" (they can't, anyway - in fact it has a pre-payment penalty), or "We're canceling all your credit lines" or "Please throw your credit cards away." I'm half tempted to draw a few hundred thousand in credit just to prove to myself it's possible, because I'm sure it is.
If this credit squeeze is really happening, then I'd like to see some evidence for it. Which department store can't bring in its Christmas season inventory because credit is unavailable? Which manufacturer has been prevented from expanding because they can't get construction loans or equipment leases? Whose brokerage has terminated their margin privileges, or even tightened them up? Anybody refusing to take your credit cards? I bought some groceries yesterday with mine.
Maybe I don't read the news enough, but my guess is the credit squeeze exists on the same island with Saddam's WMDs, where Elvis and Pablo Escobar are living out their lives in peace. Anybody have any evidence?
UPDATE: Here's an article describing what's supposedly a "credit crunch", but here's the money quote that pretty much sums up every example in the article:
David Zugheri, co-founder of Envoy Mortgage Ltd, which has 475 employees in 20 states, has also seen a big slowdown. He said 30 percent to 40 percent of prospective buyers who could have qualified for mortgages two or three years ago are being shut out.
"There has been a mad rush back to the basics and if you don't have the necessary documentation you cannot get a loan," Zugheri said. But he noted that not all credit is dead.
"If you have decent credit, a verifiable income and want a loan for under $400,000 it's business as usual."
And this is bad why?
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Same here
And thanks for the post Bsdger. I'm experiencing the same lack of lack of credit in my business. In fact, my bank is pressuring me to borrow for more equipment.
That's why I believe this is a manufactured crisis.
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Around these parts we call cucumber slices circle bites
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I'm not such a bad guy once you get to know me.
I thought something was funny
when my sister, whose husband is a self-employed carpenter, told me this morning that their credit card limit had just been raised. They're struggling a little, but manage to get the bills paid.
Yeah
We just had a card limit raised last week too, and this summer our bank called us to restructure our credit with them, effectively increase our limits and lower our interest rates. And talked us into a no cost, very low interest home equity line of credit which we aren't using.
We have assets (our house is nearly paid off, we have some retirement savings left after putting our daughter through a very expensive private college), but our income and future prospects aren't exceptional - in fact they're looking marginal. We've just never missed a payment in nearly 40 years of borrowing - sounds like your sister and husband are the same.
It Depends
Folks and businesses with excellent credit will see their limits go up and lines extended because of the loss of having to get rid of shakey borrowers. I don't think this is a fairy tale by any means. Borrowing for most folks is going to get more difficult, no doubt about it.
But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...
The alternative
is to continue extending credit to all kinds of people and corporations who can't afford to repay the debt, effectively making the shitpile higher.
But that's not a credit crunch - that's a return to responsible lending practices (as opposed to irresponsible lending practices, which are one of the things that got us where we are). It's your money the bank's lending out.
A credit crunch is when there's no money left to lend to even good customers. And that's not happening.
I believe in a right to a fair trial, a right to a decent home and job, a right to health care, even fair bankruptcy laws, but I don't believe in a right to go so far into debt you can't get out.
You don't achieve a sustainable high standard of living by writing bad loans (as we're in the process of proving). That comes about through decent jobs at decent wages and market regulations that insure bubbles don't price necessities out of reach. All of which our elected representatives continue to pay absolutely no attention to. It also comes from some fiscal self-restraint, from the top to the bottom.
Here’s an article this AM
Here's an article this AM in the
Boston Globe:
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/...
Now we just had the street in front of our house paved and the city was going to pay for part of it with this state money. so......I don't know where that leaves us.
That looks like an example
and it's the first one I've seen that does (if MA's credit is good, which I assume it is).
oh, lambert?
I just read this at TL:
Senate leaders have scheduled a vote for Wednesday on the $700 billion Wall Street rescue plan rejected by the House.
Majority Leader Harry Reid and GOP Leader Mitch McConnell say, however, that they're going to add a tax cut package already rejected by the House on Monday.
The bipartisan move caps a day of behind-the-scenes maneuvering on Capitol Hill over what sweeteners to add to the bill to attract votes from House Republicans.
Reid and McConnell's move may prove popular with Republicans, but it risks a showdown with House leaders insisting that a popular measure extending certain business tax breaks be financed by tax increases elsewhere in the code.
The Senate plan would also raise federal deposit insurance limits to $250,000 from $100,000.
Can someone explain how the government can afford tax cuts?!!
Holy crap.
Excellent post, badger. More local data points!
Yes, I know that anecdote is not data. (That's why we need a network to do sampling with: PB 2.0....)
[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
On borrowed time
The problem in the late 80's and early 90's, as I understand it, was that people with good credit weren't spending enough money to keep the economy going, and banks were literally running out of people to lend to. Thus credit was liberalized to take in millions of people who wouldn't have qualified before, because the banks were fearful of The Big Shitpile exploding even back then.
A better alternative might have been to allow the working class to take home more in wages, therefore reducing their need for credit, but of course nobody wanted to do that.
...for the rest of us
...for the rest of us
LIPOR anyone?
Have any of you seen what happened to the LIPOR rate today? Amazing!!!!
Obama's now making calls to get this passed. Will vote for the measure in the senate.
peter
Well
I assume you're referring to the overnight LIBOR, which I think I heard dropped to around 5% from around 6.8%.
But here are the 1,3, 6 and 12 month LIBOR rates, along with the Call Money rate (what brokers pay for money used for margin on stock purchases), and if you compare to a month ago, the rates have gone up slightly. On the other hand, credit was apparently tighter (rates much higher) 12 months ago. Rates are 2% to 3% lower now.
Must've been a credit crisis last year*, because the rates still look like this year they're having a hard time giving the stuff away (or is that what the crisis is - no one borrowing?).
* I believe that's when Bernanke created a crisis by raising rates.
He Hinted As Much At the Debate
I'm not sure either McCain or Obama ever hinted or said anything otherwise than that they'd both support the bill in some form or fashion.
But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...
My understanding
is that it takes awhile for the effects of a credit crunch at exalted financial levels to trickle down to ordinary folk, but that once the trickles start, they're very hard to reverse, and they join up and gradually swell to a torrent.
NBC Nightly News has had several stories about small businesses that are already having difficulty getting credit. According to correspondent Mark Potter, "The National Small Business Association says 67 percent of small-business owners surveyed a month ago are feeling the credit crisis."
The piece went on to profile several small businesses that can't get credit, including a marketing firm in Florida and a computer service business in Ohio. Car dealers are having trouble selling cars because buyers can't get loans.
And I have to say, I read the article you quoted, and your "money quote" really does not sum up every example in it--in fact, it stands out as different from most of them.
Here's a post from the NewsnEconomics blog
by Rebecca Wilder, an economist in the financial services industry in Boston, titled "Credit crunch still not evident in the data but is on the horizon":
http://tinyurl.com/4lmegc
She quotes Fortune Magazine:
“When John Dykstra got his September credit card bill from Advanta, a small-business card issuer, he was shocked: Dykstra says he has a good credit score and has never missed a payment, but his interest rate had jumped from 7.99% to 26%.
"He was even more shocked by the explanation: A brochure in the mail told him he needed to be aware of the 'continually changing business environment.'
"He's not alone. Card issuers from Bank of America to Capital One are using the economic crisis as a reason to raise rates. According to Consumer Action's 2008 survey of card companies, Bank of America, Citi, and Capital One have recently said that 'market conditions' could cause them to increase APR's.”
Wilder's post's concludes:
"Recently, rising prices have forced consumers to draw on their credit cards (revolving lines of credit) more and more to finance everyday purchases like gasoline and food, and increasing credit card APR’s will force consumers to cut back on their credit card borrowing; this will almost certainly curtail consumption. Further, evidence suggests that commercial and industrial lending is set to fall as lines of credit dry up, forcing businesses to cut back on investment. Get ready for a rocky fourth quarter."
She includes interesting charts from the Fed of borrowing trends and links to other publications and blogs documenting her thesis.
What vs. why
It turns out I have about $15,000 outstanding with Advanta on a low interest rate cash advance, and as of the current bill, the rate hasn't increased. So we have that "what" above where Dykstra's Advanta rate went up, but not really the "why" - "Dykstra says", given the normal quality of reporting, isn't especially convincing - it's another case of extending credit without verification or documentation.
I think the "why" really is more obvious in the article I quoted - each case seems to be one where people didn't qualify for what used to be the normal requirements for getting a loan. That isn't a credit squeeze - it's a return to rationality.
As to whether businesses with decent credit histories will be able to continue to get credit - tightening there is a possibility in the future, but there isn't any reliable way to predict the future. Considering we're well into this crisis (it's been obvious for well over a year - probably 3 or 4), and large failures have already occurred, it seems likely the credit markets have already discounted the future. Credit card issuers will use the sun rising as an excuse to raise rates - esp with a Democratic Congress and increased regulation on the horizon.
To pretend we can continue to lend - whether mortgages, car loans, credit cards or commercial lending - using the extremely lax standards that have recently been applied is to simply postpone and deepen the crisis when the excrement finally contacts the ventilation device. Some people are going to have to change lifestyles and quit living off their credit - home equity, cards, whatever. The solution isn't to keep throwing them more and more credit - it's to make sure they have the wages necessary to obtain necessities and on their part the willingness to live within their means.
Not being able to have both HBO and Showtime isn't an humanitarian crisis, and there are people who'll have to make more of those kinds of choices rather than keeping food on the the table. At the Federal level, a concern for people's well-being is a fairly new development and of questionable sincerity. Had it been an ongoing concern, we might not be where we are now. What about people who couldn't put food on the table last year or for the last 5 years or more? Didn't seem to be a problem back then.
At any rate, presuming the worst does happen and credit gets really tight (in which case lenders are cutting their income streams), I'd think the way to deal with a credit crisis is by making credit available, just as the way to deal with a mortgage crisis is to address the mortgage, not the derivitive, problem. Expecting liquidity to trickle down by bailing out the failed investments of irresponsible financiers seems like Hooverism to me. And after we've taken the Hooverism course, there isn't going to be any money left for real solutions.
Better response than mine!
Thanks, badger!
[ ] D [ ] ????? [ ] R
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Corrente coverage on this issue
(in large part your posts and links) has been excellent and informative.
Thanks! back at ya.
LIBOR
Thanks for correcting my spelling.
LIBOR went from a 2.9% to 6.9% yesterday! This is the rate banks use to loan to each other. They don't trust each other right now folks.
peter
Nobody trusts them
that would be the problem, all the way around.
Do you ever wonder why?
LIBOR revisited
That would be the fear explanation, and the conventional wisdom.
The other explanation (see Sterling, cited here) would be greed.
After all, if all you had to do, to gain a trillion dollars of money that's not yours, was to give some painful shocks to small businessmen and 401(k) holders, what would you do? Of course, that would presume that torture had been normalized in our ruling circles. Oh, wait...
[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi