Why is the democratic primary still going on?
This question occurred to me while I read a post by Mike Lux at Open Left declaring Hillary Clinton’s candidacy dead. Because while Obama is certainly the frontrunner at this point, I don’t think Clinton’s candidacy is dead, at least not until Tuesday. Maybe not even then.
But shouldn’t it be? From February 5 until now, Obama has gotten mostly glowing press, Clinton has gotten mostly negative, the debate moderators have spent their time grilling Clinton, and Obama supposedly has the momentum from all those February wins. So why is he only up 1.2 points in Real Clear Politics average of Texas polls and down 3.8 in Ohio, almost 11 in Rhode Island, and 9 in Pennsylvania? Shouldn’t he be kicking HIllary’s ass by now? How is it even possible that he could very well lose 3 out of four states scheduled to vote on March 4 (Vermont appears to be safely Obama country)? And that the most likely outcome is that he splits the states, with each of them taking one big state (him Texas, her Ohio) and one small state (him Vermont, her Rhode Island).
I understand that conventional wisdom says that Clinton must win Texas and Ohio on Tuesday. That may even be true in terms of her winning the nomination. But why aren’t more people worried that the Democratic frontrunner, after weeks of positive press coverage and momentum building wins, after outspending Clinton 3 or 4 to 1, will be lucky to eek out a win in Ohio and could lose by double digits?
With regard to why Clinton is still in the race, at some point that seems to me a question more aptly put to Obama than Clinton. If she wins 3 out of 4 on Tuesday, I’d say that would be the time.










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the stupid answer...
because premature burial is a rather effective, and highly efficient, means of ensuring that your rivals can’t win.
Very True, Paul
And I admit nothing gives me more hope for Clinton than hearing the growing calls for her to drop out by Obama supporters. It’s starting to take on a doth protest too much feel. Unless, of course, he crushes her on Tuesday, then that probably is a game changer.
Having said that, I feel guardedly optimistic, especially about Ohio. If she can win comfortably there, he should have some explaining to do. But, of course, that would require folks to question him and they never do. Although I do get the sense that we could be at a tipping point where things are starting to go in her favor. But that might just be me seeing what I want to see and not what really is.
Well..
I wouldn’t say Obama’s press coverage is uniformily “glowing”; witness the idiocy about that photo of him wearing Somali tribal garb. It’s just that for now the real venom’s aimed at Clinton, as the mainstream press, for whatever reason(s), really really hates her. (And this in turn may be contributing to any good poll numbers she’s getting: people lashing back against that coverage.) When/if she’s dispatched, the knives will come out for Obama.
If it matters, I’m not enthusiastic about either of them, but will vote for the winner in the fall.
Geoduck, almost the entire MSM narrative...
about the Somali garb was about the Clinton “dirty trick” of somehow, maybe — fuck, let’s say definitely, because it’s a better story — injecting the photo into the media’s ass.
Because NEITHER can win
If you take the remaining delegates with the under-optimistic Obama numbers, no one has enough to win. It is going to come down to the last 200 superdelegates and even Edwards’ 36 delegates.
If Obama keeps Ohio razor close and takes Texas, then maybe it will eventually landslide, but even if Hillary takes Texas and Ohio, she will need an overwhelming number of superdelegates like 2/3rds. (And yes I’m leaving out FL & MI, but those would have to be a re-vote unless you want to put a big asterisks next to your name and have OFB
rioting in the streets)
They want her to bow out "gracefully."
All those Democrats who heroically stood silently by as misogynistic vitriol was unleashed at HRC or directly engaged in it themselves, honestly fear that her poor feelings will be hurt and are absolutely desperate for that not to happen. What tender souls they are!
With regards to Obama: I have shared your very sentiments for about a month now. This is simply the best he can possibly do: the corporate media acts as his bodyguard, protecting him from any scrutiny and kneecapping Hillary along the way, and he’s running against a demonized caricature that in a deeply misogynistic society has come to symbolize the root of all evil (Obama has only become a projection of our hopes and aspirations because he serves as the antithesis of this supposed “evil”—femaleness). And yet she’s still competitive.
That spells disaster for the GE.
Question: Someone break it down for me: is it even possible for her to win the nomination if she just barely wins the TX, OH popular vote? What if she barely loses TX? I just cannot stomach the idea of Obama as nominee, especially after this hysterical, bigoted campaign.
Your OFB Talking Points for March 3, 2008
I’m feeling better about Tuesday. The OFB
must be worried because it looks like they’re pulling out the Clinton is racist canard again and/or will do anything to win (it’s so hard to tell them apart some times). Via Josh Marshall, who I believe can officially be diagnosed with Clinton Derangement Syndrome, Hillary Clinton did not do a good enough job standing up for Obama on 60 Minutes tonight when asked about the rumor that Obama is a Muslim.
Here are the controversial statements, via TPM
Now, when I read these quotes it seems clear to me that Clinton is saying Obama is not a Muslim, there is no basis for saying he is, and that she compares the Muslim rumors to the “ridiculous rumors” about her and calls it a smear. But, you see, this is not good enough and is “on the edge” according to Josh because she uses the phrase “as far as I know.”
Josh, you may recall, thought it was ridiculous to read anything into Obama’s obviously prepared line reading of “Periodically when Hillary is feeling down…” but feels free to parse Clinton’s off-the-cuff response for precision and perfection. And, by the way, what else can a person attest to about someone else’s religious beliefs besides what the other person says and what the speaker knows? Is she supposed to take some blood oath about what Obama’s faith is or isn’t?
And you will be seeing more of this because, unsurprisingly, it’s already been diaried by some Obama supporters. And note the video does not include the last lines about scurrilous rumors, it stops before then. Hey, look at that, right in time for the March 4 voting, they finally find a way to pin the Muslim smear on Clinton even if it is because she denied there was any truth to the rumor. Nice.
Link to TPM - http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/18…
Like clockwork
That “racist” trump card is hilariously punctual—and transparent (Who in their right mind would think that Hillary would keep playing a card that clearly hurts her every goddamn time?!). Whenever Clinton gets any momentum out it comes. Mind you, Obama’s previous pattern of overtly refusing to denounce the assumption underlying the “smear”—that being Muslim is itself derogatory—going so far as to state “I’m not and never have been of the Muslim faith,” and having his supporter, Kerry, refer to the rumor as a “smear Barack’s Christian faith,” never triggered outrage from his fans (as it should have), but when Clinton states something basically as benign as, “It’s not true,” it’s racist as hell!
Naomi Klein, “It’s no slur to be called a Muslim:”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/…
My bet is “ridiculous” will become the new “fairy tale.”
Fuck
.
Typo
My comment should’ve read:
Kerry claimed in mailers that the rumor served to “smear Barack’s Christian faith.”
HIllary's response
should be:
“Listen I just denounced the rumors that Obama is a Muslim. That’s not good enough for you? Fine. I reject those rumors.”
Absolutely
That’s what she should say if she’s asked.
But it’s ridiculous that she will be asked. The Clinton Rules, again. I do think if the OFB
push this they’re going to look ridiculous to most non-crazed folks, including other Obama supporters. It seemed pretty clear to me that Hillary said “as far as I know” as a challenge to Kroft on whether he knew more (and it wouldn’t be unlike the press to try to spring something on her).
11 wins in a row, 11 losses in a row
makes it pretty clear folks. Any other candidate than Hillary would be getting Huckabee coverage if not the Ron Paul treatment by now. But the cablenets have commercials to sell and publishers want to peddle papers too. If they tear the Democratic party apart or damage the eventual nominee in the process promoting a “breathtaking” race that’s devolved into negative campaigning by the eventual loser, why that’s all for the better.
The longer this goes on the less stature Hillary ends with in the Democratic party. The only question is can she do enough damage to Obama to get McCain elected. I’d say no, after tomorrow she could keep her campaign going to the convention and she wouldn’t even be that relevant. I doubt she will, I think she’ll drop out before PA.
geez who cares
maybe the narrative should be “with 11 wins in a row Obama is still barely ahead with major states of TX, OH, PA left” and if MI & FL voted, it would be a totally different story.
Anyways, here’s where it stands now using the leaked conservative Obama spreadsheet for remaining primaries:
BHO 1872.5
HRC 1776.5
missing from the above, 366 unpledged superdelegates & 36 Edwards delegates. Magic number is 2024. The above is assuming 52.3% & 51.7% Obama losses in TX & OH. Even if you reverse those and Obama has a blowout in TX & wins OH it is only a net flip of 15 delegates.
Obama still has to get 40% of the unpledged superdelegates period. (Maybe less depending on Edwards support)
The point is even if Obama got 60% of the vote in all remaining primaries after OH & TX he still needs 80 superdelegates (which would be easy). But certainly Clinton could win this with a Dean scream moment or a lot of money pumped into buying off superdelegates, or even putting MI & FL into the mix and Obama is behind.
And for the record, I have stated many times I think Hillary would be a bad choice. Why can’t OFB
even listen to any logic? (I know, see chanting brain-wash will.i.am video)
Voodoo
I do agree with most of the comments. One point wasn’t mention and is of importance in the Obama ritualistic crowd. As Johnathan Alter has demonstrates in his article about HRC quiting, there is a need in the Obama camp for a Voodoo spell that will cause HRC to disappear into the thin. If magic, smoke and a few cracked mirrors is all you have, social security and health care clearly are Republicanized with Obama, then Voodoo must be deployed.
But hasn't Voodoo worked before?
Didn’t apparently magical strokes as of a deux ex machina cripple or destroy Obama’s previous opponents?