[Update from Iowa Independent at the bottom of this post]
Wow. It's here. It feels like the campaigning has been going on...forever. But today Iowa will choose your president, with the help of the media. Got any bets on who will win? I'm being snarky and cynical, but I am curious if anyone has predictions.
For those of us who have wanted to talk about things other than the horserace, the last few months have been pretty hard. Having avoided a lot of it, I don't really "have a feel" for what Iowans will support today. I hope it's Edwards. And I have no idea which Republicans will do well, but I'd laugh if Paul and Hucksterbee came in 1 and 2.
I guess my problem stems from the fact that it seems very clear that there is not going to be a "national election." There's going to be a popularity contest in the fall, in which Hillary and Rudy will prove who is more popular in the Village
. But as far as "most Americans" go, well hell! It's not like they are going to get an opportunity to cast a meaningful vote. And this "contest" seems to me to have been predetermined quite some time ago. By media execs, corporate donors, probably some foreign governments with deep pockets. But we aren't going to actually participate, us Little People. If we did, why, there might actually be surprise and doubt, and as each state voted, likelihoods and probabilities would change.
But all that's too messy for our "democracy." So instead "conventional wisdom" tells me that either today, or when NH votes, "everyone" will be sure which candidates have it locked up. And "everyone" is already pretty sure that's going to be Hillary. And everyone is confident that she'll beat any Repubican in the general*, except for those who think she's guaranteed to lose in the general. That will be determined by who gets better coverage over the course of this year in the media. And the media wants to get started with that new made for teevee movie coverage of events right away. Today, if Iowa will oblige.
I'm doing a toss off post on this topic, to reflect the deep dissatisfaction and frustration I'm feeling today. I vote in MI and I don't count this year. How in the fuck is that "democracy?" Don't get me started on the undemocratic nature of public caucusing. Or voting machines.
Yes, it matters who becomes our next president. Yes, some Americans will have a say in choosing her. I won't. Millions of others won't. It pisses me off, and makes me unwilling to devote my limited reading time in the blogosphere to stories (as in fake, false, not real) about candidates who are little more than media constructs in a fake media narrative, who promise good policy but deliver corporate desires instead.
Edwards seems the least evil of the Dems in the bunch and I like his wife. So as far as my endorsement, or vote, matters, he's got it today.
*Heh. I first typed that as "Hillary will be any Republican..." My fingers are so naughty sometimes.
update: iowa independent, folks from an old crew of mine, shed a little light on how this "democracy" of ours really works:
[Exclusive] It seems that the under-the-radar caucus night dealmaking first reported by Iowa Independent last night may be even more complicated than once thought, according to additional reports from sources on the ground across the state.
Two well-placed sources told Iowa Independent last night that Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign plans to direct their supporters to Sen. Barack Obama in precincts where their candidate does not reach the 15% threshold for viability.
Today, more sources have come forward to tell Iowa Independent that some supporters of Sen. Barack Obama have been directed to swing delegates to Gov. Bill Richardson in certain counties and precincts. Sources confirm that in at least three counties, Obama campaign field organizers have told their supporters to drive support to Richardson. The three confirmed counties are all likely Obama strongholds, and each county will assign a relatively high number of delegates tonight. We have decided not to list the counties by name to protect sources' anonymity.
Obama activists in certain other counties denied receiving instructions for Richardson-Obama vote-swapping. We have heard similar rumors about precinct-specific deals between Obama and Sen. Joe Biden, although we have been unable to confirm them.
As more reports come in, we will continue to update this post with new information. That said, the deal is likely to manifest itself in ways that will be difficult to detect, even after the caucuses are over. So what exactly happens in the 1,784 precinct caucuses across the state may be difficult to explain for some time.
The Richardson campaign continues to deny our reports.
Of course they are.
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And They Are ALL Guesses
Watching the main-stream political pundits for months now, it makes me crazy that they predict who will win - then go on and spin their coverage in an if not blatant - a subconscious effort to prove that their "predictions" were correct.
They can heroically pull out old tape of themselves calling the election correctly and pat themselves on the back on teevee come election night.
Of course, most pundits are so behind the curve; they follow polls and who knows what else - then in their attempts to be "right," pundits engage in a bandwagon mentality. As the polls have shifted so often, there must be tape of nearly every pundit "predicting" each of the candidates in both major parties "the winner" in their archives.
Being "right" has overtaken the journalistic obligation to report on issues and the candidates' positions. Pundits' spin is the result: self-fulfilling prophecies.
With that - I have a list of my guesses - but I'm probably behind the curve too - and I'd hate to pat myself on the back tomorrow if I just so happened to GUESS correctly!
Amen CD, it is truly frustrating.
The Bill of Rights is a born rebel. It reeks with sedition. In every clause it shakes its fist in the face of constituted authority. . . . it is the one guaranty of human freedom to the American people. - Frank Irving Cobb
The Bill of Rights is a born rebel. It reeks with sedition. In every clause it shakes its fist in the face of constituted authority. . . . it is the one guaranty of human freedom to the American people. - Frank Irving Cobb
Everybody wins a pony!
What Atrios said.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Chances are
Obama, Hillary and Edwards will all finish within the margin of error. What'll be interesting to see is if any of the others throw their support to any of the other major candidates ala Kucinch and Obama before NH. Anyway it doesn't look like Iowans are going to coalesce around just one candidate so at least two and maybe three survive and we do this all again on Saturday in NH.
Oh and cold weather with 30 mph winds bode well for Obama's kid turnout and bad for Hillary's older women vote.
The only significant win would be...
Obama. If a black man can go to Iowa and win that would be massive.
Him coming in 2nd would be attributed to the Other factor (Kucinich and Richardson, and who knows who else by 6 p.m.) telling their people that if they can't muster viability to go with Big O.
Coming in 3rd would be seen as a reflection of "overwhelmingly white Iowa lying to pollsters and not being able in the end to go black." This would be seen as an Ominious Forboding of the future, esp. in Overwhelmingly White New Hampshire and by extension the white voting populace in general.
A Hillary win would be written off as the result of Bill, heavy cash expenditure etc. and the Pompous Punditocracy will pontificate that she Still Has To Prove Herself in state after state. A condescending pat on the head for historic significance will be patronizingly given.
An Edwards win will result only in wash-rinse-repeat of the Great Insignificance of Iowa, claims that he hasn't left the state even to bathe or relieve himself since the loss in '04, and mostly to the Hill and Barak people hating on each other so badly that neither would caucus with the other, leaving Johnny the default. Therefore his win should really only count as a second place blah blah blah. They will never ever say that his populist message was popular with the populace. O noes! That would mess up their major meta message altogether.
Our statistician, Marge Inovera
Very, very acute comment on the weather, markg8.
I'm betting you're right. I'd say that the DRM will run true to form, and get the order right, and the spread wrong, that is, OHB, JRE, HRC with very little split between them.
My pre-spin on JRE happens to be the truth: That with a lot less money and no favorable coverage he's achieved parity, which means that real message trumps no message.
Then, the non-OHB supporters can start praying that all the NH independents hop on the Straight Talk Express, giving them a straight shot -- and leaving whatever vicious scheme the Republicans have devised to take care of McCain in the SC firewall.
Sigh. Hey, get off that thread! This thread is for Obama supporters, troll!
UPDATE Xan:
1. ------ [joke about Obama. Not going there.]
2. Broder's column devaluing Iowa suggests that the Village
thinks JRE will win. Of course, they're always wrong about everything.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Predictions
For what it's worth (nothing) here are my biased predictions based on my intuition and C-Span addiction:
Democrats:
Edwards, Obama, Clinton. Edwards will have a good lead.
Republicans:
Huckabee, McCain, Paul, Romney. Huckabee's lead will be significant.
About the weather. I used to live in rural Minnesota. All this talk I hear about the weather keeping the old people home is BALONEY. These are hearty, active old people no matter how cold it gets. They'll be there in their Sunday best and bring their famous baked goods. This is the most exciting thing that's happened all winter for them. They'll finally get to go and visit with all the other old folks from the community for a few hours. The younger folks aren't as likely to be interested in having to interact with a bunch of locals and would rather stay home and watch football and play video games.
Now with the Republicans, the only ones I see as serious about showing up are the Huckabee and Paul supporters. They are passionate about their candidates. Since Republican caucuses are not as involved as the Dem ones are, they don't hang around long, so it's not a huge social event. The reason I think Romney will do so poorly is because he's just not genuine enough to bother going out for. People who claim to support him do it because that's who they're told to vote for but they don't feel passionate about it. They'll watch the game instead.
what i learned at npr today
that iowans would rather watch "the game" than go to a caucus meeting.
i found this interesting. what time is the game on, and how much overlap is there into caucus time? aren't games played at night? and then i learned that "the game" that iowans are supposedly excited about is between some team from another state and...kansas.
to me it was a tiny piece of zen re the failing of the village to understand the most basic things about the people they purport to cover. at least when i was a sports-enthusiastic college student, it was very rare that my friends and i would plan an evening around watching the ohio state game. um, no, that never happened. in fact, the only time i would make a point to watch another school play was when there was a specific reason, such as their loss resulting in my teams immediate and significant gain.
anyway, thanks for the input, randy. your perspective is helpful.
NPR is teh suck
What I learned is that Leno was in top form, and it was really good for Huckabee to be there, even though Leno broke the picket line. And I also learned that Letterman's beard looked scraggly, and he was off his game, even though he'd made a deal with his writers. Actually, they played clips from both, and Leno sounded, well, like he always does, and Letterman was just fine.
And apparently the beards are a solidarity gesture with the union, and if so, that was't mentioned.
Oh, and the strike is going to fail soon because "people are tired of it.
Unbelievable.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
oh, come on, lb- worse still was that fluff about
the 8th graders learning about what a caucus is like. "no, pick obama, pick obama!" screams the child's voice. because as we all know, politics is really no more than a game of dodgeball, and everyone wants to be with the popular kidz team.
what really made me want to puke: they devoted twice as much time to the "meaning" behind leno and the other teevee people than they did on the caucus story. all the "serious" analysis they put into the leno story, and you'd think that his return made some kind of significant impact on millions of lives.
i hate being trapped in the car w/o a cd.
If kids could vote Obama...
...would be a shoe in. I handed out Almond Joys on Halloween which apparently was a big deal to the local kids and word must have gotten around. I was inundated with trick or treaters and more than a few
of them squealed in approval when they saw my Obama sign. I'm guessing it's because of his baritone.
my predications
HRC, Obama (It's all about who spends the most in IA)
Huckanut, McCain, Romney, and Dr. Paul is #4 (There is a reason that private companies count the vote in Iowa caucus)
Insufferably chirpy NPR announcers
Damn, I can't find a YouTube of Lou Reed's Junkie. Oh well.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Why guess when you can vote yourself!
Sick of Nice Polite Republican saying things that 12 year olds don't believe. Tired of The Tweetster and PumpkinHaid bloviating on so long you're wishing a cardiac arrest on the fat, insufferable tools? Even though you know you shouldn't....
Well here's your chance to vote for your fav Dem! Right here:
http://takeaction.wordpress.com/2008/01/...
Prove the Great Orange Satan wrong. I've included Dennis the Menace and Gavel so they've got a shot! And for extra fun I've got the RePukes! Ever wished Romney would lose and just go away? Here's your chance.
From the Department of Who The Fuck Do They Think They Are
This little anecdote. Good God.
NOTE I love it -- sorry, Xan -- that they're doing an interview with Merle Haggard. But in combination with Iowa? Gad. So pretentious. And he is so classy, and the announcer is so vapid. Thank God NPR isn't mainstream. Oh, wait...
Merle Haggard on the state on the country is ... Amazing.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Oh, snap!
The Great Orange Satan:
When the games not rigged, Republicans suck. That's why they put their energies into rigging the game, eh?
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Olbermann is the Mann
Some things you don't hear from Brian Williams or Wolf Blitzer:
lol.. poor website
Yep, the website is crashing because the GOP is stupid..
Ok, keep telling yourself that. And Bush keeps screwing up because he is an idiot.
On the IOWA RESULTS;
What happens when the results are:
EDWARDS 32.XX%
CLINTON 32.XX%
OBAMA 32.XX%
Is the media stupid enough to announce a 1st, 2nd, 3rd place when it is literally a handful of people from a hnadful of Iowans who bother to be Democrats and also show up on caucus night?
Also, it appears dead-man-walking will actually pull off a third place finish.
Huckabee son dog-killing story to assume new prominence
NPR just called the Republican primary for Huckabee.
I am so, so happy.
NOTE A little oppo for the boys in the back room...
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
burn the puppies! shed blood and treasure for corrente! all hail
the 4000$ haircut overlords!
32/32/32 = "we need more ad revenue."
let the games continue.
Chris Matthews is teh suck
"John Edwards is a much more traditional figure, he is a populist of the perhaps the Hubert Humphrey variety someone who says we're going do redistribute the income between rich and poor, we're going to give a better break to the little guy, little woman, over the big corporation, but I'm not sure that that is a message which sounds like it's going to grab the people around the country, it just doesn't hit me, I think let me just blunt about it he doesn't have the organization worldwide... nationwide."
More vapidity from NPR
Evangelicals are 60% of the vote and break 2:1 for Huckabee, and NPR says it's because Huckabee did well in the debates. And (Rich Lowry) incredible communications skills.
Guys! The story: The Republican Party has been seized by lunatics!
On the Dem side, it's more about personalities and less about issues, oh, and Obama is all about "change."
Meanwhile, NPR starts putting the boot into Edwards....
[Reach me that bucket, wouldja hon?]
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Huckabee called winner
How do they declare Huckster with only 25% reporting? The media must know something.... Statistically they cannot make this call.
I wonder if the rest of the votes are used to fix the story for third place, etc.
msnbc calls it for Obama
Matthews hypes the idea of Obama having an international appeal, a repudiation of Bush by voting for a man of African descent. Cites the Bible: "Deliverance."
Speaking of...
the media just declared Obama the winner, but is anyone really comfortable with this insanity? Do they have exit polling they are using to supplement them?
I mean we are talking about +/- 10 people..
OBAMA declared when the official vote tally:
Senator Barack Obama : 35.25%Senator John Edwards : 31.02%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.78%
Precincts Reporting: 1304 of 1781
Sure that looks like a lot of precincts.. but the real numbers:
Precincts Reporting: 1331 Of 1784 74%Barack Obama 602 34%
John Edwards 522 31%
Hillary Clinton 519 31%
So 80 vote lead with ~500 votes still to count. I wouldn't feel comfortable calling that with all precincts coming in right around 30-35% for all three candidates.
Interesting again...
Interesting.
I should say right now that it's a wonderful, wonderful thing that we've got a woman, a black man, and the son of a millworker running for President.
That says absolutely great things about the Democratic Party.
Also about Obama's organization. The flip side of the trolling is dedication and turnout. And if they used a community organizing model, that's really interesting (first useful nugget, though it's from NPR...) since it goes back to his roots. (Too bad no such thing in the blogosphere...)
That said... The unity message still makes me gag.
And those numbers were way off. Could have been embarassing!
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Anybody heard numbers on R turnout?
Talk talk talk for an hour after it started about the D turnout being up around 180-200k vs. 120 k in 04. Zip nit nil nada about Republicans.
keep in mind Iowa is a no-party-registration state. You have no party listed on your registration papers and on primary day (night) you show up and announce on the spot which one you want to vote in.
Anecdotal reports (2 women) heard quoted earlier today saying they were Republicans so for the cause they were going to caucus Democrat ("ic" omitted intentionally) so as to fuck Hillary. And much comment that "Independents and some Republicans are voting Dem tonight"--so are they walking towards the light or are they like those two twits cited earlier?
Hope it holds like it is now, O-E-C. Iowa really is meaningless in the great scheme of things, more so this year with the machine-gun rate of fire of primaries...but damnit, much as he pisses me off on issues I got a thrill over seeing a black man win Iowa.
Moment of astonishment: Matthews actually cited electoral history and got right not just the facts (black men getting the vote right after the Civil War while women of all colors didn't get it for another 50 years) but the significance: much more resistance to the Scary Vagina than the nice polite discourse would like us to think.
first response: obama is set up to go down
he wins here, he will lose later. to hilly.
that's how the horserace works. quoth some tour of LA movie studios i once took:
"the hero always takes the first blow." another way of saying the loser always wins the first round.
no Dennis supporters
How is there not a single person in the State of Iowa who can support Kucinich?
ANyways, sorry the 1784 number is from local affiliate which must have wrong numbers.
GOP turnout:
Mike Huckabee 26054 32%Mitt Romney 19186 25%
Fred Thompson 10536 14%
John McCain 10192 13%
Ron Paul 7864 10%
Rudy Giuliani 2779 4%
Note that TEN TIMES as many Iowas walked through the snow to vote for Paul, or McCain, or Thompson, or Romney, or Huckster than Obama supporters. Or36:1 republican to ONE democrat (SDE) turnout. How many people equal one SDE delegate equivalent?
I need to gather the 2004 GOP turnout.
surprise McC 3rd place
Like the good voter theft criminals they are, McCain's folks are hacking the last minute numbers.
72% reporting
Thompson 11522 14%
McCain 11281 13%
You watch as the numbers seems to put McCain in third and Thompson retires from the race.
Amazing numbers
Ten times more?!
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
or: Expendable Crewman #37!!! Kirk Lives, while Pfc. Nigre
Expendible always dies!!! how many episodes do i have to cite to you people??!??1? before you believe me? it's a con-spear-ah-seeeeeee!!!
heh, i can't wait to wake up monday next week and be sure who 'won' in our presidential, i mean iowa caucus race.
not ten to one
Ok, I misunderstand the delegate reporting system. I wonder if the Democrats publish the head counts??
From 2004, Dems had 124,000 caucus-goers.
From FoxNews
As far as the GOP goes, "The GOP's most recent contested presidential caucus was in 2000, when 87,000 Iowans took to their precincts"
Currently the GOP has 91,000 with 76% precincts reporting. Looks like they shattered their turnout records.
turnout
Turnout surged for all Democrats, easily surpassing the 125,000 voters in the 2004 primary with only two-thirds of the vote counted.
And this gem, "Over half the people entering the Republican gatherings identified themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians, and said they preferred Huckabee."
If the Republican Party is 100% taken over by evangelicals
that means we don't have to suck up to moderates and low information voters.
Screw "unity"!
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
pony show
Screw “unity”!
But but then... everyone won't get a free Unity
Pony
from Oprah! *