Misogyny, Sexism, & the Gender Gap in the 2008 Election
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Misogyny, sexism, and the gender gap are alive and well in the American electorate.
Overall, men prefer McCain over either Democrat, while women prefer either Democrat over McCain. But the gender gap widens considerably when a woman is running. When McCain is matched with Obama, the gap is 13.9% (comprising 7% of voters), but when it is McCain versus Clinton, the gap nearly doubles to 26.9% (comprising 13.5% of voters.)
The expansion of the gender gap is due almost entirely to changes in how men vote. Only a few more women (1.6%, comprising 0.9% of all voters) prefer Clinton when matched with McCain than when Obama is matched with McCain—
women pretty much stick with the Democrat regardless of whether its Clinton or Obama.
But far more men (11.3%, comprising 5.6% of all voters) prefer Obama when matched against McCain than when its Clinton versus McCain. As a result, when the margins in all 50 states are averaged, Clinton gets 4.3% fewer votes than McCain, while Obama get 0.4% more votes than McCain.
(This study is based on the SUSA National Poll released on 3/5/07 than polled voter on their preference for Clinton or Obama when matched against John McCain in all 50 states. Links to each state’s data will be provided in Part 2)
Table G1 (see below) shows the averages for all 50 states for the margins found in all states, for males, for females, and the gender gap – the difference between the male average and the female average (male minus female), for both each Democratic candidate when matched against McCain. (Rows 1 and 2). Row 3 shows the difference between support for Clinton and Obama (negative numbers mean less support for Clinton) relative to Obama in each category) .
Rows 4, 5, and 6 show the same data weighted based on the percentages of male and female voters in each state. While Rows 1, 2, and 3 compare margins within specific categories, rows 4, 5, and 6 show the percentage of the electorate that the margin comprises. (i.e. In Row 1 the “Male” percentage represents the margin among male voters – McCain received 18.1% more male voters than Clinton. In Row 4, the “Male” percentage represents the margin as compared to all voters – McCain’s advantage among males represented 8.9% of all voters.)
TABLE G1: AVERAGE DEMOCRATIC MARGIN VERSUS McCAIN
G1A--Unweighted Averages
Row All Male Female Gender Gap
1 Clinton -4.3% -18.1% 8.8% 26.9%
2 Obama 0.4% -6.8% 7.1% 13.9%
3 HRC minus BHO -4.6% -11.3% 1.6% 13.0%
G1B--Weighted Averages
Row All Male Female Gender Gap
4 Clinton -4.3% -8.9% 4.7% -13.5%
5 Obama 0.4% -3.3% 3.7% -7.0%
6 HRC minus BHO -4.6% -5.6% 0.9% -6.5%
Table G2 (see below) shows where these margins come from. The data shows total vote percentages (“All”), is broken down by gender (“Male” and “Female”, and the “Gender Gap” (“Male” percentage minus “Female” percentage) is shown.
In Table G2A, McCain’s vote is shown the average for each Democratic candidate matchup. Row 2 shows that in a McCain-Obama matchup, McCain gets 45.1% of the total vote, consisting of 49.3% of the male vote, and 41.2% of the female votem resulting in a gender gap of 8.1%. Row 1 shows that in a McCain-Clinton matchup, McCain gets 47.2% of the total vote (2.1% more than against Obama), which consists of 54.1% of the male vote (4.8% more than against Obama), and 40.8% of the female voter (0.4% less than against Obama) , resulting in a gender gap of 13.3% Clinton’s gender gap is 5.2 points higher than Obama’s, largely because of the 4.8% difference in the male vote for McCain.
In G2B, the average vote percentage for each Democratic candidate is shown in their own matchups with McCain. Row 2 shows that Obama gets 45.5% of the votes, comprise of 42.5% of the male vote and 48.3% of the femail vote, creating a gender gap of –5.8%. Row 1 shows that Clinton gets 42.9% of all voter (2.6% less than Obama), comprised of 36% of the male vote (6.5% less than Obama) and 49.5% of the female vote (1.2% more than Obama), creating a gender gap of -13.5%. Again, Clinton’s gender gap is greater than Obama’s (by -7.7 points), due primarily to Obama getting 6.5 more of the male vote than Clinton.
(Table G2D — which is the same as table G1, above —is created by subtracting the values in Table G2A from the the values in Table G2B.)
Table G2C looks at the “Undecided” vote. In the average McCain-Clinton matchup, there are 9.9% “undecided” voters, just 0.6% more than in a McCain-Obama matchup. But there are 2.5% more undecided voters in a McCain-Obama matchup than a McCain-Clinton contest. And while 1.8% more men are undecided when it’s the Clinton matchup, slightly fewer women (-0.7%) are undecided when Clinton is the nominee. (And people say that women can’t make up their minds!)
TABLE G2: UNWEIGHTED AVERAGES
G2A--Average McCain percentage
Row All Male Female Gender Gap
1 vs Clinton 47.2% 54.1% 40.8% 13.3%
2 vs Obama 45.1% 49.3% 41.2% 8.1%
3 HRC minus BHO 2.1% 4.8% -0.4% 5.2%
G2B--Average Democratic percentage versus McCain
Row All Male Female Gender Gap
4 Clinton 42.9% 36.0% 49.5% -13.5%
5 Obama 45.5% 42.5% 48.3% -5.8%
6 HRC minus BHO -2.6% -6.5% 1.2% -7.7%
G2C--Average Undecided Percentage versus McCain
Row All Male Female Gender Gap
7 vs Clinton 9.9% 10.0% 9.8% 0.2%
8 vs Obama 9.3% 8.2% 10.5% -2.3%
9 HRC minus BHO 0.6% 1.8% -0.7% 2.5%
G2D--Average Democratic margin versus McCain
All Male Female Gender Gap
10 Clinton -4.3% -18.1% 8.8% -26.9%
11 Obama 0.4% -6.8% 7.1% -13.9%
12 HRC-BHO -4.6% -11.3% 1.6% -13.0%
Table G3 presents a “weighted” version of Table G2. (see above explanation of Table G1B.) It should be noted each state was weighted according to its own demographic profile; Row O represents the average democgraphic profile of all 50 states.
TABLE G3: WEIGHTED AVERAGES
Demographic Break down by Gender
row All Male Female Gender Gap
0 Average 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% -3.2%
G3A--Average McCain percentage
row All Male Female Gender Gap
1 vs Clinton 47.2% 26.2% 21.0% 5.3%
2 vs Obama 45.1% 23.9% 21.2% 2.7%
3 HRC minus BHO 2.1% 2.4% -0.3% 2.6%
G3B--Average Democratic percentage versus McCain
row All Male Female Gender Gap
4 Clinton 42.9% 17.4% 25.6% -8.3%
5 Obama 45.5% 20.6% 24.9% -4.4%
6 HRC minus BHO -2.6% -3.2% 0.7% -3.9%
G3C--Average Undecided Percentage versus McCain
row All Male Female Gender Gap
7 vs Clinton 9.9% 4.9% 5.1% -0.2%
8 vs Obama 9.3% 4.0% 5.4% -1.4%
9 HRC minus BHO 0.6% 0.9% -0.4% 1.2%
G3D--Average Democratic margin versus McCain
row All Male Female Gender Gap
10 Clinton -4.3% -8.9% 4.7% -13.5%
11 Obama 0.4% -3.3% 3.7% -7.0%
12 HRC minus BHO -4.6% -5.6% 0.9% -6.5%
There can be little question that it is not simply “Hillary hatred” or “Clinton Derangement Syndrome” that is at work here. It is sexism and misogyny. Women are voting for the Democrat, regardless of who is running. It is men who switch their votes in droves to McCain when it’s a woman running.
But there is a great deal of variation in the extent to which this misogyny and sexism shows itself in various states. That will be the subject of Part 2. Part 3 will look at group of states where the “gender factor” plays a significant role in individual states.