REGIONAL COMPARISONS & BEST AND WORST STATES
The individual state cross tables from the SUSA 50 state general election poll demonstrate how the gender gap determines the winner in a very large number of states. But there is considerable variation between states themselves and within regions. Much of the variation appears to be related to other factors, such as race and racism, and how liberal/conservative a state is.
(Part I of this study can be read here. If anyone finds bad links, or egregious spelling/grammar errors, please note the in the comments)
This study is based on the SUSA 50 state general election poll released on March 7, 2008, which examined McCain v Clinton and McCain v Obama
matchups in all 50 states.
States within each region are:
North East: CT, DE, MA, MD, ME, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT
North Central: IA, IL, IN, KY, M!, MN, MO, OH, WI, WV
South: AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA
Mountain/Plains: CO, ID, KS, MT, ND, NE, OK, SD, UT, WY
Far West: AK, AZ, CA, HI, NM, NV, OR, WA
Links to each state’s data can be found at the end of this piece.
OVERALL REGIONAL AVERAGES – Table G4
By far, the best region for Democrats overall is the Northeast. It’s the best region for both Clinton and Obama, not merely overall, but among both men and women.
But there the similarities end. Clinton’s next best region is North Central, where she all but breaks even among all voters. And her worst is the Mountain/Plains states. While Clinton loses the male vote in every region, only in the Mountain/Plains sates does she also lose the female vote
TABLE G4: AVERAGE MARGINS BY REGION McCain v Clinton line All NE N Cen South Mt/Pln West 1 all -04.3% +08.6% -00.1% -05.5% -20.8% -04.8% 2 male -18.1% -07.9% -14.3% -14.5% -34.1% -21.8% 3 female +08.8% +23.5% +13.0% +03.1% -08.1% +12.1% 4 gen gap -26.9% -31.4% -27.3% -17.6% -26.0% -33.9% McCain v Obama line All NE N Cen South Mt/Pln West 5 all +00.4% +11.3% +01.3% -09.0% -07.7% +07.3% 6 male -06.8% +02.5% -06.0% -13.4% -15.5% -00.5% 7 female +07.1% +18.9% +08.2% -04.9% +00.1% +15.0% 8 gen gap -13.9% -16.4% -14.2% -08.5% -15.6% -15.5% Comparison of Gender Gaps (Line 8 divided by Line 4) 9 GG dif 194% 191% 192% 209% 167% 219% (positive number = Dem win, negative number=McCain win)
Obama’s second best region is the Far West, and his worst is the South. The Northeast is the only region where he wins the male vote outright, and the South is the only region where he loses the female vote.
But what is most interesting is that in most regions, the size of the gender gap in Clinton v McCain (Line 4) is almost twice the size of the gender gap in Obama v McCain (Line 8). The only region where its not close to twice as large are the Mountain/Plains states – the only region where Clinton lost the female vote.
THE NORTHEAST – Table G5
(State by state data tables for this region can be found here)
The Northeast is clearly the most “Democratic” region, and its also one of the most difficult to characterize.
· Only in New Hampshire does Clinton do worse than McCain
· Only in Pennsylvania does Obama lose to McCain.
· Clinton does better than Obama against McCain in 6 states,
· Obama does better than Clinton against McCain in the other 5 states.
Unlike the Mountain/Plains states, where misogyny clearly plays a major role, or the South where all margins are obviously affected by racial considerations, its hard to generalize about the Northeast.
Clearly, there is misogyny at play in many Northeastern states like New Hampshire, Maine and Maryland
· Among women in these states, there is a mere 2% difference in support for Obama and Clinton,
· The difference in support, which always favors Obama, is much wider among men (11% in MD, 18% in NH, 20% in ME).
Table G5-NE: THE NORTHEAST Averages, Highs, Lows & Ranges Clinton v McCain line all male female male-fem 1 avg +08.6% -07.9% +23.5% -31.4% 2 high +22% +10% +39% -15% 3 low -08% -25% +07% -47% 4 range +30% +35% +32% +32% Obama v McCain all male female male-fem 5 avg 11.3% 2.5% 18.9% -16.4% 6 high +34% +32% +35% -03% 7 low -05% -16% +00% -36% 8 range +39% +48% +35% +33% Range Difference (line 4 minus line 8) 9 R diff -09% -13% -03% -01%
But in other states, like Rhode Island and Massachusetts, feminism plays a role in Clinton’s favor.
· In RI, the difference between the two Democrats among males (in Obama’s favor) is 3%
In RI, the difference among women (in Clinton’s favor) is 8%.
· In MA, Clinton has a 4 point advantage over Obama among men
· In MA, Clinton has 16 point advantage among women.
And while there is evidence of both misogyny and feminism in some states, there are a few states, like Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey, where race (and racism) appears to play a factor.
THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES
(State by state data tables for this region can be found here)
The North Central states are also good territory for the Democrats.
· Obama leads McCain in 6 out of the 10 states
· Clinton leads McCain in 5 (with one tie, Michigan)
· Both are ahead or even with McCain in Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan
· Both are behind in Kentucky, Indiana, and Missouri.
· Obama leads McCain in Iowa, while Clinton is behind McCain there;
· In West Virginiam Clinton leads, Obama lags
Obama does better than Clinton against McCain in 6 states, Clinton does better in 3 states, and one state is tied. But the North Central states also presents the largest contrasts in the differences in ranges of all the regions.
· In the Northeast, the difference in ranges for Clinton and Obama is no more than 13 points (see line 9, table G5-NE above).
· The difference in the North Central region (see line 9, table G5-NC below) are far higher.
This contrast in ranges tells us that there is enormous variety in the North Central states.
Table G5-NC: NORTH CENTRAL Averages, Highs, Lows & Ranges Clinton v McCain line all male female male-fem 1 avg -00.1% -14.3% +13.0% -27.3% 2 high +11% +05% +29% -11% 3 low -17% -25% -08% -39% 4 range +28% +30% +37% +28% Obama v McCain all male female male-fem 5 avg 1.3% -6.0% 8.2% -14.2% 6 high +29% +23% +36% -02% 7 low -21% -28% -16% -30% 8 range +50% +51% +52% +28% Range Difference (line 4 minus line 8) 9 R diff -22% -21% -15% -00%
Misogyny appears to play a moderate to highly significant role in most of the region.
· Only in Iowa and Wisconsin is the level of support among men and women for both candidates essentially equal.
· In five states, the difference between how men and women vote is over 15 points (IL-26 pts, KY-16 pts, MI-18 pts, MN-17 pts, and WV-26 pts.)
· In two states Clinton’s advantage over Obama among women is in double digits (KY-19 pts, .WV-35 pts) But in both these states, racism, rather than feminism, may be the determining factor.
THE SOUTH
(State by state data tables for this region can be found here)
The South in general is very unfriendly territory for both Democrats, with Obama having a slight edge over Clinton overall.
· McCain bests Obama in 10 states, and ties with Obama in the 11th (Virginia).
· Clinton beats out McCain in only 2 states (Florida, and her home state of Arkansas) and ties in on (Tennessee); she is behind McCain in the other 8.
· In the 7 states where both candidates lose to McCain, Obama outperforms Clinton in 5 of them (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas)
· Clinton doing better among the remaining two (Alabama and Louisiana).
Table G5-S: THE SOUTH Averages, Highs, Lows & Ranges Clinton v McCain line all male female male-fem 1 avg -5.5% -14.5% +3.1% -17.6% 2 high +11% +05% +22% -08% 3 low -21% -30% -13% -28% 4 range +32% +35% +35% +20% Obama v McCain all male female male-fem 5 avg -9.0% -13.4% -4.9% -8.5% 6 high +00% +09% +08% +21% 7 low -20% -25% -18% -24% 8 range +20% +34% +26% +45% Range Difference (line 4 minus line 8) 9 R diff +12% +01% +09% -25%
Racism, rather than misogyny, appears to be the prevailing bias throughout the South.
· The South is the only region where Clinton does better than Obama overall,
· The South is also the only region where there is very little difference in the percentage of the male vote.
But misogyny does seem to play a supporting role in a few states. The difference between how men and women voted is more than 10 points in four states(LA-12 pts, MS-12 pts, TN-14 pts, TX-13 pts).
Only in Florida does misogyny appear to outweigh racial factors.
· Both Democrats won the male vote, with Obama doing only 4 pts better than Clinton,
· Among females, the difference was much larger—25 point
· Clinton received 13% more of female vote than McCain
· Obama lost the female vote to McCain by 12%.
MOUNTAIN/PLAINS STATES
(State by state data tables for this region can be found here)
Much like the South, the Mountain/Plains states region is unfriendly territory for both Democrats. But unlike the South, misogyny plays a huge role in the margins.
· Clinton not only loses every state to McCain, but only in 3 states is the loss in single digits (Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma).
· In 7 states her losing margin is at least 20% (Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Utah, and Wyoming.)
· Obama manages to outperform McCain in only 2 states (Colorado and North Dakota), Obama’s losses are in double digit in 4 states(Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wyoming.)
Clinton outperforms Obama in only one state (OK), and ties in another (KS). In fact, this is the only region where Obama outperforms Clinton among female voters.
· Clinton loses the male vote in every state,
· Obama wins (by 1%) the male vote in only 1 (ND).
· Clinton manages to win the female vote in only 3 (CO, KS, OK – the only states were her overall losses were in the single digits),
· Obama won the female vote in those states, and three others (MT, ND, and SD
Table G5-MP: MOUNTAIN/PLAINS Averages, Highs, Lows & Ranges Clinton v McCain line all male female male-fem 1 avg -20.8% -34.1% -8.1% -26.0% 2 high -06% -19% +20% -16% 3 low -38% -49% -28% -54% 4 range +32% +30% +48% +38% Obama v McCain all male female male-fem 5 avg -7.7% -15.5% +0.1% -15.6% 6 high +09% +01% +22% -08% 7 low -23% -29% -18% -29% 8 range +32% +30% +40% +21% Range Difference (line 4 minus line 8) 9 R diff +00% +00% +08% +17%
But what is most remarkable is consistency or the misogyny of the Mountains/Plains states.
· The average difference between how men voted for Clinton and Obama is 18.6 points.
· The difference between how men and women voted for Clinton is in the double digits in every state – and 19 pts or more in all but 2 of them (MT, SD),
· The difference between men and wom is in single digits for Obama in two states (ND, NE), and 19 pts or more in only three states (CO, ID, KS).
But while the misogyny is consistent, the primary dynamic in the region appears to be “pro-McCain/ant-Democratic” in nature. The Mountain/Plains states actually have the lowest average difference between how men and women vote for Clinton and Obama (see line 9 of Table G4, above). Neither men nor women are favorably disposed toward either Democrat; men are just less favorably disposed toward Clinton relative to Obama than women are.
THE FAR WEST
(State by state data tables for this region can be found here)
The Far West is a mixed bag for both Clinton and Obama, but Obama does better than Clinton throughout the region, outpolling her against McCain in all 8 states.
· Both win 2 of the same states (California, Hawaii) and lose 2 of the same (Alaska, Arizona.).
· Obama outpolls McCain in the remaining 4 states,
· Clinton lags behind the Republican in 3 of them (Nevada, Oregon, Washington) and is tied is the fourth (New Mexico).
But even in states where the Democrat is behind McCain, both remain competitive in most states.
· Only in Arizona are both candidates lagging by double digits
· Clinton has only one other double digit loss state, Alaska.
There is a difference in how each Democrat does with each gender itself.
*Clinton loses the male vote throughout the region,
· Obama wins the male vote in 3 states (CA, HI, WA), and ties with McCain in another (NV).
· Both Democrats do well with female voters in the region, each losing that demographic in one state by small margins (Clinton—AK –3 pts, Obama—AZ –1 pt.).
Table G5-FW: THE FAR WEST Averages, Highs, Lows & Ranges Clinton v McCain line all male female male-fem 1 avg -4.8% -21.8% 12.1% -33.9% 2 high +10% -11% +31% -23% 3 low -22% -40% -03% -45% 4 range +32% +29% +34% +22% Obama v McCain all male female male-fem 5 avg 7.3% -0.5% +15.0% -15.5% 6 high +30% +21% +39% -07% 7 low -12% -24% -01% -23% 8 range +42% +45% +40% +16% Range Difference (line 4 minus line 8) 9 R diff -10% -16% -06% +06%
But while both candidates do better in the Far West than in the Mountain/Plains region, the evidence of misogyny and sexism is just as pervasive. The difference between how men and women vote for Clinton and Obama is the highest of all regions (see line 9 of Table G4, above).
While on average, women are fairly close in their support of Obama and Clinton, and men support Clinton far less than Obama (see lines 1 and 5, Table G5-FW above), those averages belie the true nature of what is happening in the individual states.
· In only two states (CA, AZ) does Clinton outperform Obama among women,
· Except for Obama’s home state of Hawaii, Obama’s advantage is in the single digits.
· Obama’s consistent advantage among men is in the double digits in all but one state (NM), and in the teens (12 pts) in one other, McCain’s home state of Arizona.
· In the other six states, Obama’s advantage among men is 20% or more (AK-25 pts, CA-20 pts, HI-33 pts, NV-24 pts, OR-23 pts, WA-24 pts).
THE TOP TEN STATES FOR MISOGYNY AND SEXISM
Two criteria were used to determine the most misogynistic states.
1) Gap in support for Clinton between men and women of 30 pts or more. (see lines 2, “g. gap” in Table G6)
2) The overall gender gap when comparing Clinton v McCain to Obama v McCain . (see lines 2, “g. gap” in Table G6)
Four states (AZ, HI, IL, NY) were excluded because of the “home state” factor, which may skew the results. It should also be noted that these are not necessarily the most misogynistic states – other factors may hide the true extent of misogyny in many states.
TABLE G6—MISOGYNY TOP 10 line margins 1 California all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +10% -14% +31% -45% 3 Obama +11% +06% +16% -10% 4 HRC-BHO -01% -20% +15% -35% 1 Colorado all male female g. gap 2 Clinton -06% -34% +20% -54% 3 Obama +09% -06% +22% -28% 4 HRC-BHO -15% -28% -02% -26% 1 Connecticut all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +10% -10% +27% -37% 3 Obama +21% +16% +24% -08% 4 HRC-BHO -11% -26% +03% -29% 1 Delaware all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +05% -11% +19% -30% 3 Obama +09% +05% +14% -09% 4 HRC-BHO -04% -16% +05% -21% 1 Maine all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +06% -19% +28% -47% 3 Obama +14% +01% +26% -25% 4 HRC-BHO -08% -20% +02% -22% 1 Michigan all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +00% -19% +17% -36% 3 Obama +01% -08% +10% -18% 4 HRC-BHO -01% -11% +07% -18% 1 Nevada all male female g. gap 2 Clinton -08% -24% +08% -32% 3 Obama +05% +00% +10% -10% 4 HRC-BHO -13% -24% -02% -22% 1 Oregon all male female g. gap 2 Clinton -05% -24% +12% -36% 3 Obama +08% -01% +17% -18% 4 HRC-BHO -13% -23% -05% -18% 1 Pennsylvania all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +01% -16% +16% -32% 3 Obama -05% -11% +00% -11% 4 HRC-BHO +06% -05% +16% -21% 1 W. Virginia all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +05% -11% +19% -30% 3 Obama -18% -20% -16% -04% 4 HRC-BHO +23% +09% +35% -26%
Of particular note is the lack of any states where McCain outpolls both Clinton and Obama. Race and general pro-Republican bias seem to mitigate the impact of misogyny in many states.
· In 5 of the states both Obama and Clinton are ahead (CA, DE, CT, ME) or tied with (MI) of McCain.
· In 3 others (CO, NV, OR) Obama does better than McCain, while Clinton does worse,
· In the remaining two (PA, WV) Clinton does better than McCain and Obama worse.
THE ANTI-MYSOGYNY HONOR ROLL
Two criteria were used to determine the 5 least misogynistic states.
1) An overall gender gap of plus or minus 5 points when comparing Clinton v McCain to Obama v McCain . (see lines 4, “g. gap” in Table G7)
2) The gap in support for Clinton between men and women (see lines 2, “g. gap” in Table G7)
TABLE G7—5 LEAST MISOGYNIST line margins 1 Iowa all male female g. gap 2 Clinton -05% -14% +05% -19% 3 Obama +09% -01% +17% -18% 4 HRC-BHO -14% -13% -12% -01% 1 New Jersey all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +05% -09% +17% -26% 3 Obama +00% -16% +13% -29% 4 HRC-BHO +05% +07% +04% +03% 1 New Mexico all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +00% -11% +12% -23% 3 Obama +07% -02% +16% -18% 4 HRC-BHO -07% -09% -04% -05% 1 Wisconsin all male female g. gap 2 Clinton +04% -12% +18% -30% 3 Obama +11% -05% +25% -30% 4 HRC-BHO -07% -07% -07% +00% 1 Wyoming all male female g. gap 2 Clinton -33% -42% -23% -19% 3 Obama -19% -27% -10% -17% 4 HRC-BHO -14% -15% -13% -02%
Unlike in the “Top 10 Misogynistic States”, there is no clear pattern in the results. Only in Wisconsin do both Clinton and Obama out-poll McCain, in 2 others (NJ, NM) one Democrat beats McCain, while the other ties him. In Iowa, Obama beats McCain, and Clinton loses to him, while McCain outpolls both Democrats in Wyoming (where the it would appear that anti-Democratic sentiments outweigh any misogynistic biases.
LINKS TO SUSA STATE BY STATE DATA
The Northeast:
CT—Connecticut (7), DE—Delaware (3), MD—Maryland (10), ME—Maine (4), MA—Massachusetts (12), NH—New Hampshire (4), NJ—New Jersey (15), NY—New York (31), PA—Pennsylvania (21), RI—Rhode Island (4), VT—Vermont (3)
North Central
IL—Illinois (21), IN—Indiana (11), IA—Iowa (7), KY—Kentucky (8), MI—Michigan (17), MN—Minnesota (10), MO—Missouri (11), OH—Ohio (20), WV—West Virginia (5), WI—Wisconsin (10)
The South
AL—Alabama (9), AR—Arkansas (6), FL—Florida (27), GA—Georgia (15), LA—Louisiana (9), MS—Mississippi (6), NC—North Carolina (15), SC—South Carolina (8), TN—Tennessee (11), TX—Texas (34), VA—Virginia (13)
Mountain/Plains States:
CO—Colorado (9), ID—Idaho (4), KS—Kansas (6), MT—Montana (3), NE—Nebraska (5), ND—North Dakota (3), OK—Oklahoma (7), SD—South Dakota (3), UT—Utah (5), WY—Wyoming (3)
The Far West:
AK—Alaska (3), AZ—Arizona (10), CA—California (55), HI—Hawaii (4), NV—Nevada (5), NM—New Mexico (5), OR—Oregon (7), WA—Washington (11)
There was no polling data for DC—District of Columbia (3) and it is not included in any region.