Obama's Sour "Apples to Apples", Part Two

DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW, MALE AND FEMALE VOTERS

In the last six weeks, Barack Obama has been losing support in virtually every key demographic category when matched against John McCain, while Hillary Clinton has gained support. Obama has lost support among men, women, White voters, “Independents”, and “Moderates”, while Clinton has gained support in all those categories.

Obama’s margins against McCain have fallen significantly in all of these categories, while Clinton is “holding her own” in these key categories as previously undecided voters make up their minds.

These conclusions are drawn from an “apples to apples” comparison of Survey USA polling done April 11-13 in nine states (California, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin) with similar polling done in late February as part the SUSA 50 state poll (conducted Feb. 26-28).

THE BIG PICTURE

Hillary Clinton’s nine state averages shows that she picked up 1.3% more support overall between late February and mid-April, while Obama lost 1.6% of his support (Chart B-1). Clinton improved in all the key demographic categories; although her average improvement among Moderates is negligible (+0.1%), she has managed to pick up significant support in a Clinton v McCain matchup among those groups that she is considered weakest, male voters (+1.8%) and Independents (+2.4%).

CHART B-1

At the same time, Obama lost support against McCain in all the major groups – including among his supposed “strong suit”, the “Independent” vote, where he lost, on average, 4.2% compared to late February. Obama also lost considerable support among White voters (-3.2%) and Moderates (-2.9%)

The news isn’t all good for Clinton, however. Despite gaining support in every category, she lost some ground to McCain, as her margins (Chart B-2) among White voters (-2.1%) and Moderates (-2.3%) declined, while her overall margins (0.1%), and margins among men (+0.8%), women (-0.7%), and Independents (no change) showed little change.

CHART B-2

But if the news isn’t all good for Clinton, it is all bad for Obama. His average margins against McCain decreased by well over 4 points in all key demographic categories; men (-4.8%), women (-5.2%), White voters (-8.8%), Independents (-11.4%), and Moderates (-7.8%). As a result, his average margin against McCain has dropped by 4.9 points.

CHART B-3

That 4.9% average margin drop in support is especially telling, given that the percentage of undecided voters dropped only 1.8% in the hypothetical Obama v McCain matchups. While in the Clinton v McCain matchups, undecided males trended slightly in Clinton’s favor, and slightly in McCain’s favor among white and moderate voters, the “newly decided” voters in all demographic categories went to McCain in Obama v McCain.

MALE VOTERS

Overview: While Obama managed to increase his support by small amounts in a majority of the nine states, major losses in male support in three states results in average net loss of support. (Chart B-4) Morever, where Obama does achieve modest gains in male support, McCain has gained even more support, and Obama’s margins among males versus McCain are consistently lower than in February. Clinton’s performance among males is more mixed, but results in a net average increase in overall male support, and in her average support among males against McCain. As a result, Obama’s advantage over Clinton among male voters was cut in half.

CHART B-4

· Clinton shows significant losses in male support in three states, Massachusetts (-6%), New Mexico (-4%), and Wisconsin (-4%).
· Obama also shows losses among males in three states (MA –10%, NM –7%, OH –6%) but his losses are more severe than Clintons.
· Obama shows a significant gain in male support in only one state (MO +6%); Clinton shows significant gains in 4 states (CA +17%, MN +3%, MO, +7%, OR +7%).
· Overall, Clinton’s 9 state average level of support among males rose by 1.8%, while Obama’s had a small average net loss of support (-0.9%), despite a 2.4% decrease in undecided male voters.

CHART B-5

· .In the two state where Clinton was leading among male voters in February, she now lags behind McCain. In Massachusetts, her margin among males was +10%, now its –9%, and in Ohio it was +5%, now its –3%. (Chart B-5)
· Clinton now lags significantly further behind McCain in three other states; Iowa, where she lost an additional four points (to –19%), New Mexico where she lost 3 points (to –14%), and Wisconsin (losing 4 more points to –16% among males.)
· In California, Clinton picked up significant male support, going from –9% to +7%.
· In two other states, Clinton cut into McCain’s male support significantly, gaining 13 points in Missouri (to –4%) and gaining 11 points in Oregon (to –13%)

CHART B-6

· Obama significantly improved his margin among males in only one state (by +13 points), Missouri, where he went from –15% against McCain to –2%
· Obama is now losing among males in two states where he lead in February, Ohio, where his margin declined by 16 points (from +9% to –7%), and Massachusetts, where his margin dropped 23 points (from +6% to –17%).
· Obama’s margin among men also dropped significantly in New Mexico, where he went from –2% among males to –16%.

The nine state averages show that Clinton’s margins against McCain among males held steady (+0.8%, from –10.2% to –9.4%) while Obama’s margin’s against McCain among males deteriorated (-4.8%, from –0.7% to –5.4%). As a result, Obama’s advantage over Clinton among males in these nine states decreased by about half, going from an average 9.5 points to an average of 4.2 points.

FEMALE VOTERS
Overview: Obama increased his overall support among women in only two of nine states, while losing at least 3% among women in 5 states. (Chart B-7) resulting in an average net loss of female support for Obama. Obama’s lead among women against McCain decreased by an average of more than 5 points (Charts B-8, B-9). . As with male voters, Clinton’s performance among female voters is more mixed, but does result in both a small overall increase in support among women, and a small increase in her average margin against McCain among women. . As a result, Clinton’s overall advantage over Obama among women voters in these nine states increased substantially.

CHART B-7

· Clinton shows significant losses in female support in one states, California (-7%).
· Clinton shows significant gains in female support in two states, Massachusetts (+8%) and Ohio (+6%).
· Obama shows a significant gain in female support in only one state (MA, +6%);
· Obama shows a significant loss of female support in two states, New Mexico (-6%) and Ohio (-5%). .
· Overall, Clinton’s 9 state average level of support among females rose slightly (by 1.0%) which is only one third of the decrease in the average female undecided vote
· Obama’s had an average net loss of support among females of –1.8%, despite a 1.8% average decrease in undecided female voters.

CHART B-8

· In Missouri, Obama’s margin against McCain among women is now negative, dropping 15 points from +2% to –13%.
· Obama also lost significant ground among women in 4 other states, California (dropping 8 points, from +16% to +8%), New Mexico (-13 points, from +16% to +3%), Ohio (-9 points, from +11% to +2%), and Wisconsin (-9 points, from +25% to +16%)
· Only in Massachusetts did Obama’s margin among women increase significantly, going up 10 points, from +9% to +19%.

CHART B-9

· Clinton’s margin among women against McCain decreased in 5 states, three of them significantly: California (-13 points, from +31% to +18%), Minnesota (-7 points, from +22% to +15%), and New Mexico (-6 points, from +12% to +6%)
· Clinton significantly increased her margin among women in 3 states, Massachusetts (+11 points, from +25% to +36% Ohio (+7%, from +16% to +23%), and Oregon (+4 points, from +12% to +16%)

Clinton’s nine state average margins against McCain among women decreased only slightly (by -0.7 points, from +16.4% to +15.8%.), Obama’s average decrease in margins among women was more than 7 times that of Clintons (-5.2 points), and his advantage over McCain among women was cut by more than a third, going from +14.3% to +9.1%. As a result, among women, Clinton tripled her relative advantage over Obama when matched against McCain in these nine states, going from an average of 2.1% to 6.7% between February and April.

SUMMARY OF MALE AND FEMALE DATA

CHART B-10

The results for Clinton (CHART B-10) are decidedly mixed. She improves her overall margins against in four of nine states, improves among males in three states, and among females in 4 states. The gains and losses are offsetting each other, resulting in very small in average increased margins overall (+0.1%) and and among male voters (+0.8%), and a small average decrease among female voters (-0.7%)

CHART B-11

But the news for Obama is almost all bad. He increases his overall margin in only one state (OR), and is generally losing ground among both male and female voters – in the two states where he does substantially improve his margins with one gender (MA, MO), the gains have been offset by reduced margins in the other gender, resulting in a net margin decrease. As a result, his average margins against McCain have decreased significantly among both male (-4.8%) and female (-5.2%) voters, resulting in an overall average margin decrease of –4.9%.

The mixed news for Clinton, and the generally bad news for Obama, results in good news for Clinton.

CHART B-12

Out of nine states, in the last six weeks, Obama outperformed Clinton overall when matched against McCain in only one state, Minnesota, and only outperformed Clinton among males in two states (IA, WI), and among females in two state (CA,MN). Everywhere else, and in both gender categories and overall, Clinton did better than Obama in the last six weeks among these nine “should be Democratic this year” states.

When Obama improves his margins, Clinton improves hers more. When Clinton’s margins decrease, Obama’s go even lower. On average, Clinton outperformed Obama by 5.0 points overall, and by 5.6 points among men and 4.6 points among women.

Perhaps “outperformed” is the wrong word to use, because Clinton’s average margins against McCain didn’t change significantly. Clinton looks better than Obama in these nine states because during the last six weeks previously undecided voters are saying “no” to Obama, and supporting McCain, and Obama is losing some of the support he had six weeks ago. Obama is tanking, while Clinton is hanging in there.

NOTE: Data tables used for this post can be found at http://www.glcq.com/election08/apples/ap...