Tue, 02/20/2007 - 1:03pm — lambert
Here, for instance, is a plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran: Iraq fails to meet the benchmarks for progress toward stability set by the Bush administration. This is followed by U.S. accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure, then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the United States blamed on Iran, culminating in a "defensive" U.S. military action against Iran.
But surely Brzezinski's concern is a little exaggerated?
After all, it's not an election year!
NOTE See here for the master timeline on Republican manipulation of terror alerts in the 2004 election.
UPDATE Then again, it could be any day!
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God, I can only hope so.
God, I can only hope so. Sounds rather bleak in his words, doesn't it?
The skunk in the room,
The skunk in the room, ignored by Brzezinski as well as every other 'serious' commentator on the situation, is the oil. His solutions to the crisis sound sensible only if you do the same thing he does, and pretend there is no oil under Iraq.
Before the war, U.S. Oil Majors were looking at being cut out of the profits on refining and marketing Iraqi oil entirely. Now they have contracts giving them %75 of the profits.
125 billion (proven) barrels x $60 per barrel = 7.5 trillion dollars. Iraq crude is of the very highest quality, and so cheap to refine, but let's be generous and say a trillion in costs. That still leaves 6.5 trillion, 75% of which is a cool 4.9 trillion. Moreover, Iraq is one of the few oil-rich regions of the world not yet fully explored, so there could be much as the same amount again waiting to be found. Also, the long-term future of the price of oil is nowhere but up.
Anyone who thinks that America Inc. is going to walk away from that kind of wealth (and power) without a fight to the finish is simply hallucinating.
Give Them a Rope
Oil from Iraq is sold by their national ministry at market prices similar to those quoted spot prices to a variety of firms mostly in Europe. The American refiners over the past several years are running practically flat out full capacity. Grabbing share of refining income is mostly a matter of having refining capacity, not owning police power in Mesopotamia. You would have a point if refineries owned by Americans were sitting idle or in low use.
Iran has been running proxie wars in Lebanon and Iraq through their Revolutionary Guards, which have been coopted by Iranian "corporate" influence. It is organized to fund itself and it's owners. Iran tries vigorously to force oil prices higher, since oil dominates the export profile and necessarily funds the Revolutionary Guards and the government. A limited war (a la Lebanon) is Iran's goal. Propoganda regarding their ability to stand up to the West, combined with $100 oil gives the Ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guards the glory and wealth to convert more to the Shia way and so forth.
This incident in Iraqi waters, according to the Captain of the ship being boarded, is just like firing Katyusha rockets into northern Israel. Any response that can be called "a provokation" will do.