While the media is concentrating on the massive change in the percentage of Democratic vs Republican votes in the 2010 Massachusetts special election, the real significance lies in the fact that Republican voters turned out, and Democrats stayed home
Brown managed to attract just slightly more votes that McCain got in the 2008 election (105.8% of McCain's vote or 63,823* more votes.) But Coakley was only able to attract 56.0% of the votes Obama received in 2008 -- thats 832,401 fewer votes. Or to put it another way, 3% of the 2008 Democratic electorate switched to the GOP from the Dems -- but 44% of the 2008 Democratic electorate stayed home rather than vote for the Democrat again.
To understand what happened, its instructive to look at Democratic strongholds in population centers. In 2008, in the 10 largest towns in Massachusetts**, Obama got over 76% of the vote -- and getting 316545 more votes than McCain in the process.
Brown got virtually the same number of votes in those 10 towns as McCain did (138K for McCain, 140K for Brown) but Coakley only managed to get 257K -- 198K fewer votes than the 455K votes Obama got in 2008.
Its abundantly clear that Massachusetts voters did not switch to the GOP -- instead, those voters who went to the polls in 2008 expecting real "change" saw no reason to show up to maintain the status quo represented by Obama's center-right policies.
If this was, as is being reported, a referendum on health care reform, it represents a rejection of Obama's embrace of corporate control of health care -- this was "Ted Kennedy's seat", and in betraying everything that Kennedy stood for in terms of real health care reform, Obama signalled to Massachusetts voters that a vote for Coakley was a vote to betray the Kennedy legacy.
* Data sources
2010 election results
2008 election results
** Boston, Worcester, Springfield, Cambridge, Newton, Quincy, New Bedford, Brockton, Somerville, Lowell
Statewide
McCain 1,104,284
Brown 1,168,107
Obama 1,891,083
Coakley 1,058,682
10 Largest Towns
McCain 138,335
Brown 140,339
Obama 454,900
Coakley 256,841
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Comments
i can't help it.
"We Told You So!!!eleventy1"
titter.
i'm very petty this morning. seriously, i'm a naughty schoolgirl who just put her foot out and tripped the fat kid. i'm just made of gleeful evil. people of good conscience should ignore me, and indeed, excoriate me. for my many, many sins.
heh.
sorry. um, yes: GOTV efforts failed in MA last night. i wonder why? actually, i don't. "it's the economy, Stupid" + bailout + Senate HCR
bill. i guess some people didn't quite understand that yesterday. the important question is: will they today.
Actual progressive loses;
actual teabagger wins.
Really vile.
Reporter to Mahatma Gandhi: What do you think of Western Civilization?
Gandhi to reporter: I think it would be a good idea.
Excellent piece...
this was the right outcome. The base stayed home, and now the words "Medicare expansion" are being spoken again, and the Health Whatever bill has been slowed down in Congress. We may have to do the same thing several more times before the Democratic Party gets it - Democrats will not put up with their crap any more.
I am, indeed, sorry that Coakley paid the price for Obama's horrible policy, but she certainly did not have to embrace the Stupak abortion restrictions three weeks after roundly denouncing them. That did not help her cause at all.
She is a young woman and her career does not have to be over. In a few years, we might have a lot more breathing room for liberals to govern as liberals again, if the base keeps refusing to vote for Democrats.
Never vote for people who hate you.
ERA Now!
The Widdershins
her flip-flop epitomizes progressivism
I can't tell you how many progressives I have lost respect fr because they abandoned decades of fair elections struggles to help rig an election and/or were complacent (or participants) in one of the most disgusting displays of misogyny I've ever witnessed. Vits almost as if you have to sell out to be a progressive.
I feel neither joy nor sorrow at the outcome. If you did want me to feel bad you can start by leaving out progressive. Because progressive is like cheap tequila: was good when I was young and naive, but now that I have more experience there is way better stuff out there.
Only tyrants rig elections.
LOL
Bartcop has built an entire following around his discussions of tequila.
What a morning this is. I feel like some moral order has been restored to the universe. I'm sad that Martha lost because she would have been a good addition to the senate. I'm shocked that Ted Kennedy's seat was lost to the Republicans. I'm horrified that Brown will be in the Senate. And I am delighted that the voters of Massachusetts, the one state that voted for George McGovern, did their bit to set our party and our nation back on the right path. They delivered a return blow to the people seeking to turn the Democratic party into a carbon copy of the Republicans.
Hopefully, in two years, when Brown runs for re-election, the Dems will have given the people of Massachusetts a reason to show up and we'll take the seat back. Although, I'm not holding my breath on that one.
"Someone needs to point out that elephants produce infinitely more shit than donkeys." Brad Mays
If Teddy really wanted the Dems to hold onto that seat
Why did he give us Obama?
It's hard to sort out what to think of his vigorous championing of The One. Was his infirmity exploited, or was he plain old fooled?
I gather there was bad blood (can't say as I know the details) between Kennedy and the Clintons, so that may have played a role. He may have simply loved the air of electability that Obama seemed to be bringing to the Democrats, details be damned.
In any case, he was bouncing around like toddler with his enthusiasm for the lightbringer, so I look at is as more his failure to protect "his seat" than it was Coakley's.
It wasn't the machines it was the Machine
The Democratic leadership though they could run on fear of Bush. Republicans can run on nothing, they are the party of doing nothing about half the time, the other half they are the party of imperialism. Democrats must always be producing wins for the public.
Obama's slogan is now "Better than Nothing."
Unfortunately, nothing isn't on the ballot.
Or, "2% Less Evil!"
As I said here.
Never vote for people who hate you.
ERA Now!
The Widdershins
Why aren't these numbers just an off-year drop?
IIRC, special elections have lower turnout anyhow. Can you show that the turnout was even lower than normal?
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Actually...
Special elections are notoriously low in in turnout, but in this case, the 54% turnout is pretty good. considering turnout in 2008 was 66.2%. In mid-term elections, we used to expect about a 20% drop overall, and special elections even more of a drop.
Brown's voters were motivated. Coakley's were not. Poor turnout was definitely a one-sided phenomenon in this race.
Blue Lyon
turnout was lower in Obamaland
I divided the state in half -- in the towns which comprised the 50% of the population where Obama did best (getting approximately at least 60% of the vote) 70.31% of the votes cast in 2008 were cast in 2010. In the other half of the state, 77.37% of the votes cast in 2008 were cast in 2010. (Statewide 73.78% of the votes cast in 2008 were cast in 2010.)
Obama best "Half"
Obama % 71.09
Obama votes 1.093 million
Coakley% 58.73
Coakley votes 0.635 million
Total Voters in 2008 1.54 million
Total Voters in 2010 1.08 million
Obama worst "half"
Obama % 52.82
Obama votes 0.798 million
Coakley% 36.25
Coakley votes 0.426 million
Total Voters in 2008 1.51 million
Total Voters in 2010 1.17 million
The numbers are even more telling in the "10 biggest towns". In those towns (which Obama won with 76.68% of the votes cast) only 66.95% of the votes cast in 2008 were cast in 2010.
In other words, the better Obama did in 2008, the fewer voters that turned out in 2010.
because if they are then then all the drop was
on the democratic side.
McCain 1,104,284
Brown 1,168,107
That would never happen
not holding my breath for democratic reform
Quintile analysis
Not to beat a dead horse or anything, but....
I divided the state in quintiles based on how Obama did in 2008.
Obama %..............2010 vote/2008 vote
49.20%.........................78.15%
54.12%.........................77.52%
59.41%.........................75.35%
68.23%.........................71.12%
79.33%.........................66.84%
The better Obama did in 2008, the lower the turnout in 2010.