Does McCain stand a chance?

vastleft's picture

Via e-mail:

Dear MoveOn member,

Here's some ominous news: In the last week, Obama's lead in the national tracking polls has dropped by almost three points. If it keeps dropping, we could be looking at four years of President McCain and Vice President Palin.

Now, don't panic yet. Obama's still ahead. But if you thought it didn't matter whether you helped the campaign this weekend, think again. The election looks like it'll be very, very close. If folks start thinking that Obama's got this one licked, and he doesn't really need their vote—well, we could be in big trouble.

In recent weeks, here in a relatively conservative part of liberal Massachusetts, the number of McCain-Palin signs and stickers has gone up considerably. Maybe you're seeing such phenomena in your neighborhood.

Now comes the conveniently timed news (not that I'd suspect the Bushies of using the criminal-justice system for political gain) that an Obama aunt is in the country illegally, a timely helping of red-white-and-blue meat for those fixated on "illegals" as the cause for our nation's woes.

Such developments suggest that the GOP base may be a little more energized than some might have it.

If only there were a base of progressive voters ready to be energized, to help bolster Obama's presumed lead, the Democratic nominee would surely be reaching out to them.

Just kiddin'. The good news is that Obama will probably score 300 or more electoral votes, proving him right about throwing us die-hard lefties under the bus. Does good news get any better than that!

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Sarah's picture

I guess it's time for me to ask what a die-hard lefty

can hold onto, these days.

The most nearly Leftist candidate in the primaries was Kucinich, the next most Edwards. Neither of them survived.

Apparently some of the ideas that used to be "die-hard lefty" have now moved to the "centrist" ideal -- that is to say, more people favor clean air, clean water, and making extractive industries like mining clean up their messes than ever before. That's just not being reflected in government policy.

I think more of us are for safe workplaces. More of us want to see immigration reform. More of us are for a universal health care system (not the same thing as universal insurance by a long chalk) than were in 1992 or 1996, but that's a bug in the current system: fear of not being able to afford needed care, or having the cost of emergency care drive bankruptcy.

I'm pretty sure it's still leftist, though, to want to see the Constitution and the Bill of Rights applied to everybody, regardless of little ticky things like religion, race, gender, immigration status, or income.
Especially that last one. Income. Not what people hope to make someday, or what the TV makes people think their lifestyle equals. Real income -- take-home, after-taxes, have-a-rainy-day-fund income.

It's fear that drives the Right, and the need to make other people as scared as they are that fuels the worst of their noxious, toxic spewage.

Not that we don't have our own fearmongers on the Left, but in general a couple of things happen when progress occurs:
1. The sky doesn't fall
2. The next generation takes for granted that things should always be this way.

Which honks off their elders, sometimes.

I hope to live to see grandkids of mine and my neighbors' taking gay marriage and universal health care as much for granted as I, a divorced woman who has since remarried, take my right to vote, own property in my name, and control of my wages -- as well as my right to decide if/when to bear children, in consultation with my doctor -- not at the mercy of a judge, the church, or the state.

For my mother's generation, those things were radical leftist notions indeed.

1 John 4:18


We can admit that we’re killers … but we’re not going to kill today. That’s all it takes! ~ Captain James T. Kirk, Stardate 3193.0

1 John 4:18

Simple answers, etc. : No. No way.

But, of course, my preditions don't always work out. However, I think Obama is definitely going to win; size of victory is the only iffy thing.

Now, when can we hold his feet to the fire?

Start emailing for UHC on 11/5?? FISA redo? Dump that stupid immunity for telcos (which does extend to Bushies, right?)?

Start emailing for UHC on 11/5??

why wait? i've been emailing since they all started campaigning. not that it's done a noticeable amount of good yet....

DCblogger's picture

why wait?

elixir's picture

Here in north of Boston I've noticed mucho McCain/Palin signs.

Obama, not so much. Agreed on the energized part, Sarah has certainly perked things up and I like her for that. I don't think I can vote her but I certainly love her energy and committment. Too bad she's so crazy right.

I love this job!

I love this job!

tartu's picture

Judging by the number of signs

Obama is winning Pasadena, CA handily - at least last Saturday. The entire city was papered in the Obama signs.

Damon's picture

If He Does Comeback

It's my opinion that it would only help him in the popular vote count. I think people don't pay enough attention to the Electoral College map, a map in which it is nearly impossible for McCain to recover. It also happens to be the only number and map that actually matters in elections, and I say that with a bit of disgust because I've been railing against the College since 2000, and it matters not to me the politics of it.

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

amberglow's picture

i see it the opposite way, Damon--

that Obama has the popular vote, but not electoral.

that McCain will do well in all the lightly populated parts and exurbs of a lot of states, while Obama gets the more densely populated cities and closer suburbs.

Damon's picture

How Do You Figure?

All of the polling data is pointing to quite the opposite: McCain closing in, nationally, but not closing in on Obama in the states where it's going to matter. Take a look at the different EC maps all over, now.

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

amberglow's picture

"McCain's fate rests on who will vote"

-- http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-turnout1nov02,0,2192902.story

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