Just ask Josh. And ignore these polls (especially since I know nothing about polling anyhow):
But now this afternoon come two more national polls essentially confirming the same trends with some significant subterranean changes.
-- the ABC News/Washington Post national poll of registered voters, which shows Obama's 6-point August lead has evaporated to produce a 47-46 Obama-McCain statistical tie,
-- and a CNN/Opinion Research poll, which shows the race still tied at 48% apiece but McCain making significant gains in how voters view his handling of the economy, Iraq and healthcare.
The most surprising results -- and surely the most disturbing for the freshman Illinois senator's camp -- are the immense gains McCain has made among white women following the Republican National Convention and the well-received prime-time speech by Palin.
In barely three weeks since before the Democratic convention last month, that crucial group of female voters has moved from 50-42 in Obama's favor to 53-41 for McCain now.
That's a huge 20-point shift in almost as many days, no doubt attributed in large part to the addition of a woman to the Republican ticket, Alaskan Gov. Palin, for the first time in the party's 164-year history.
The same poll also revealed a large shift toward McCain in Midwest battleground states from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge. The same numbers also indicated Obama making little or no progress in the areas of having sufficient experience and wooing to his side former supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Oopsie.
Yes, I know Palin's awful on the issues, and that now Obama's calling both her and McCain liars, which is like saying they breathe. But Palin's not about truth, any more than Reagan was. She's about resentment. Calling her a liar just throws gasoline on the resentment!
And if it's legitimate to vote for Obama as a blow against racism, regardless of his policies, then it's equally legitimate to vote for Palin as a blow against sexism, regardless of her policies. And if it's legitimate to vote for Obama because of his compelling life story, then it's equally legitimate to vote for Palin because of her compelling life story. And if it's legitimate to vote for Obama because he's charismatic and gives a good speech, then it's equally legitimate to vote for Palin because she's charismatic and gives a good speech. And if it's legitimate to vote for Obama because he's a media darling, then it's equally legitimate to vote for Palin if she becomes a media darling. And since the post-partisan schtick can only mean that there's no intrinsic difference between D and R, that means all the candidates are equally legitimate, so why vote for one as opposed to the other? Eh?
All back to the original sins of the primary, I'd say.
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I'd like to legitimately vote...
"None of the above."
Unfortunately, such a vote does not carry much weight under the current system.
Imagine your plane landing at Sarah Palin International Airport
Or driving down the President John McCain Expressway, 15 years hence. Choices of lanes will include HOV and POW, and our cars will be powered by tar sands and coal from leveled mountain tops.
Returning to the subject: this all the fault of that bee-atch and her sometimes husband, Billary. If neither one of them had called the Obama bid for president a fairy tale, TinkerBell would not have flown into that bug zapper.
Ha!
I imagine they would allow you to shoot wolves while landing on the Sarah Palin Airport and you could flip-flop your Hummer on the McCain "Straightalk" Express.
God, now I truly hope McCain doesn't win in November. The thought of that man and woman in the White House scare me. Give me a reason to vote for you, Barack! Make me believe, you bastard!
Until then, I'll just vote downticket.
Hope you're just drunk, drewvsea
you make no sense and you're not clever.
go munch on a bag of chips and sober up.
Hillary Clinton, The Man of My Dreams
"If we have to have a dictator, who better than Obama"
- progressive blog commentator
McCain Stole Change
...and he's not giving it back.
Republicans never give anything back.
However, this sort of faith I find touching:
(emphasis mine)
You don’t know me, son. So let me explain this to you once: If I ever kill you, you’ll be awake, you’ll be facing me, and you’ll be armed.
-Malcolm Reynolds, “Serenity”
Re: drewvsea
Several years ago my plane landed at George H.W. Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas. Somehow, I managed to survive...
Hope, Change
all those 'wonderful' Republican ideas that Obama praised and the whole identity nature of this season appear to be coming home to roost.
We needed a candidate willing to beat Republicans to a bloody pulp, not one who appeared fond of their 'wonderful' ideas.
Now the campaign shifts to bashing Pallin and dismisses any chance of returning to issues. Attacking Pallin's experience only casts a bright light on Obama's skimpy "experience" and could open the door for assaults on his exceedingly poor judgement.
The issue in this campaign should have been Republicans, their misrule and how they've brought us to grief. Bi-partisan, post-partisan and praising their ideas took away the best weapons.
The Obama campaign's ads attempting to paint McCain as George Bush probably won't work. The maverick image is ingrained into the public conscienceness and the Pallin choice only reinforces that image however false.
Running a candidate with a con-job resume and negligable conviction insured that a probable slam dunk would be a struggle.
This was no year to take any chances.
By the way
Lambert. You've written yet another Hall of Fame post.
Guys, drewvsea was joking
At least it seems clear to me (i.e. TinkerBell would not have flown into that bug zapper.).
Anyway, I can't tell you how many times I've seen the whole "there is nothing to see here" sentiment expressed in the other boards and forums I frequent. Of course, when Obama is up 5+ points then the polls are right. Seriously, there are literally three or four major national polls, yesterday, done by different polling companies that show the race having come to a dead-heat or McCain gaining a slight lead. There is something fundamentally different, now, that can't be denied and I don't imagine it can be significantly reversed.
I said it very early one, but the minute Obama loses the "hope & change" message, or at least has it neutralized, he becomes just another politician. And, when you're choosing between two politicians instead of a Messiah and a politician, you're going to take into account government experience.
The Obama candidacy can not survive without retaining the exceptionality of Obama. You strip him of his exceptionality and novelty, and he becomes "the freshman Senator from the State of Illinois." The conventional knowledge was that for the Democratic nominee to lose, this year, they'd have to destroy themselves. Well, if I didn't know any better I'd say that Obama is doing just that.
But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...
Q&A
Question:
Answer:
Question:
If McCain = Jelly, what = Obama?
Answer:
Toast
and McCain didn't go to W-A-R..
what is most remarkable about this is that Team McCain hasn't really gone to W-A-R (Wright-Ayres-Rezko) yet.
They're waiting, Paul
If they do it in October, Obama doesn't have time to distract the electorate with something else shiny.
He who will not reason is a bigot; he who cannot is a fool; and he who dares not is a slave.
- Sir William Drummond
What Aeryl said. McCain is holding the reins here and he's
got W-A-R+ in storage. After McCain gets his money's worth out of the "tax, tax, tax" ads he'll pull out the mud and smear Obama.
I was hoping that at some point Obama would get back to the issues that appear to be of importance, economy, healthcare, the war in Iraq.
This race has been terribly mismanaged and we haven't even had the debates yet.
I love this job!
I love this job!
The last shiny thing Obama flashed was Biden. Yikes, where
the hell is Biden and what was the upside on that decision?!!
I love this job!
I love this job!
the upside of Biden....
the upside of Biden is that he was a tourniquet that stopped the hemorrhaging of Obama's support -- Obama was sinking fast in the polls prior to the convention, based on Team McCain's successful characterization of Obama as a "rock star" (although I think "teen idol" is a more apt term). The Biden pick was an effort to reassure voters that Obama would listen to his elders, rather than just go off half-cocked when it came to Presidential decision-making.
The problem, of course is that Biden was the personification of everything that Obama supposedly stood for.
It should be noted that while McCain's Palin pick contradicted one of McCain's major themes (experience matters), it reinforced the most important theme of his candidacy-- his "maverick" status -- and provided people with a reason to vote FOR McCain. Palin reinforced what was most important for McCain, Buden contradicted the entire rationale for supporting Obama.
The OFB seems eternally distracted by the bright shiney Palin!!
It's like crack or chocolate or banana cream pie or pringles or something, they just. can. not. leave. Palin. alone. "just one more.. pleeze!"
It's like these latest polls hurt their feelings that people are leaving their hero (can't have that!) and so they dive right back into the bottle of Palin Ale or run down to the crack house for a rock or two more of Palin "scandals" that go up in smoke.
Days and days and days of a fast ending campaign are being spent on this drivel--all distracting the public from THE ECONOMY!
One thing is certain: Hillary would never ever ever have fallen for this trap. She'd have praised Palin and then tied Republican policy around her neck with a big bow (which she did in her press release) and then ignored her for the rest of the campaign.
(As Lambert says echoing Carville: ITES - It's the economy, stupid.)
Why does Obamacamp fail to "get" that anything about Palin just sucks the air out of Obama? And that's really bad 8 weeks before a major watershed presidential election.
just sayin'
dupager
dupager
I Don't Know If I Believe Those Swings In the Poll
A 20-pt. swing seems a bit much among women, but who knows whether the first poll or the latter poll is right or neither is right.
The main thing is that the race is in question. I still think Obama has a better map than McCain, but it's not a guaranteed map. He's been running a very reactive campaign. It's April-May instead of February for the Obama camp and that's not good. Biden stopped the bleeding, but did nothing beyond that. If he'd selected Clinton, he'd be up at least 5 points. If it were Clinton/Obama, I think they'd be up 10.
Obama has two main paths to the presidency it seems to me: 1) the economy continues to tank and the tide turns against the GOP so strongly, McCain can't possibly win; or 2) Obama starts talking boring policy points about what he's going to do for the American people. He could use fewer stadium appearances and more standing on the back of a pick up truck in rural Virginia, IMO. There's a third option, which is that McCain/Palin somehow self destructs, but I don't think the media will allow that and, in any event, the framing of Palin leading up to the convention was so badly done by Democrats that I'm not sure anyone is listening anymore.
That, of course, assumes that Obama doesn't make some "big" mistake in the debates or otherwise (I think he has less room for error because he is young and people do worry about his experience level) and that McCain and the GOP don't have some sort of brilliant negative attacks up their sleeves. Although I've always worried about a Rezko ad, the kind Hillary couldn't run. That entire matter just stinks to high heaven, I don't care if Obama didn't violate any laws. Tony Rezko, who at the time was known to under investigation, does not simply help you buy a house using hundreds of thousands of dollars and not want something in return, at least eventually. And I do not believe Obama is so stupid as to think otherwise. If the GOP play Rezko right, it will be devastating, IMO. The other two are just distractions.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
You're leaving out an October surprise
and election theft.
[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
October Surprise & Election Theft
I'm not convinced an October surprise is possible in that I think a war with Iran or whatever may backfire against McCain. People outside the Village
are pretty tired of war, I think. I'm not sure a new one or a military crisis or terrorist attack will lead to people wanting the GOP or wanting to get rid of the GOP even more. An even split I expect.
As for election theft, that's a given. I presume the election will be tilted in the GOP's favor and that a Democratic win means beating the Republican by a big enough margin that the election couldn't be stolen.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
An Obama/McCain race was always going to be close
- much closer than it would have been with Hillary - and very small demographic shifts in a handful of swing states can move the election one way or the other.
The polls cited here have been far off the mark on many demographic subsets all summer. Obama was never up 8 with white women, he was at best even and IMHO probably down 4 right after the D convention. He isn't down 12 with them now, although Palin may have picked up a couple of points for the Rs (essentially all newly enthused evangelical Dominionists, not enough PUMAs to matter). The key question, not answered by these polls, is where geographically are the shifts occurring? How are the swing states being affected?
Looking at the state-by-state polls, it appears right now as though the key to the whole thing will once again be Ohio. I'm not at all convinced, especially with Palin on the ticket, that Obama can win either Colorado or New Mexico; in my view, he must take Ohio or he will fail.
If the Republican strategists feel the same way, they will have arranged to start manipulating the voter rolls in Ohio as they have elsewhere, and we should soon see them attacking the Democratic Party voting base...Oh, wait....
It doesn't matter what voters tell the pollsters they intend to do, if when they show up at the polls they are denied the right to vote. A potential purge of 600,000 Ohio registered voters, maybe more, with the focus on those who have recently moved could easily take away enough Democratic votes to keep Ohio in the Republican column.
Grim as things appear, it could have been worse for the Democrats. Suppose, as I and many others here had wished, John Edwards had won the primary?
Vote Theft
I fully expect an all-out effort by the GOP this Fall, especially now they have a fundie on the ticket. The real problem is that it's almost impossible for Democrats to challenge the results if it happens. First because Kerry didn't in 2004, so there's a history of go along, get along and people don't see the pattern. Second all of this post-partisan bullshit. Obama and the party (and really this is a longstanding problem with the Dem party leadership) have set themselves up to be as defenseless as possible if Ohio gets stolen. Not only have they treated the GOP as if they are deserving of some kind of respect both collectively and with McCain, individually, but they also ceded the high ground the moment they counted Hillary votes as Obama votes (and I know technically primaries are different, but I'm talking political argument here). I think all of it combined not only makes it harder to fix it if it goes wrong, it actually encourages the GOP to try, knowing the Democrats have painted themselves into a corner.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
The counter-argument here
is that if you give credence to the reports coming out of the TX caucuses, as I am inclined to do, the Obama team has already stolen some elections for themselves. Kerry wasn't in that class.
[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
True, lambert
Whether they can do the same in an election, as opposed to a caucus, I doubt. If they could do that, Clinton wouldn't have won Daschle's home state of South Dakota.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
Nonsense
Gotta let that construct go. Caucuses suck, for many reasons, and if ten percent of what was reported in Texas happened it was outrageous and unacceptable from many standpoints not the least of which is that it was just plain rude.
But.
The power of nomination was always with the Party, and firmly in the hands of the DNC as the Party’s trustee no matter what the rules appeared to say. The election part, the voting and the caucuses and all of it, was a sham. If a sham is corrupted, is it really any worse than it was? How far below meaningless could it get?
The Party cannot steal from itself. The Party, openly and clearly, decided the nomination. Those who see themselves as having lost something they never had need to confront the reality that they ended up in this position because they allowed themselves to be conned into believing they owned a voice in the nomination, when in fact they never did.
It’s a bit like discovering that your heartfelt lover who for lo these many years could only see you on alternate Tuesdays is actually married with five kids – and isn't about to leave them. However angry you are with the ex-lover, your real object of distrust and humiliation and the focus of a need for change is that face you’re looking at in the mirror.
What happened in the primary, a delusional dancing around in the streets outside the private affair where the real decisions were made, has nothing to do with voting theft and corruption in a public general election. One is the doings of a private club, the other is our Constitution and the very basis of our self-governance. A big mistake, IMHO, to confuse them.
That's A Great Argument, BIO
Do you think that's going to be the media narrative if the Democrats complain about GOP vote stealing? That the entire primary process in which the media invested so much time and energy was a giant charade? Do you think the Democratic Party will put forth that argument?
I don't give a fuck what the Democratic Party's rules say. When you lead people to believe their votes will count and then don't count their votes, you're creating a problem for yourself when you try to later argue about votes being counted.
And, in any event, if the GOP steal votes, the problem will not be reality, it will be the media narrative. And if this is the best argument the Dems have - that all that excitement that was created during the primaries and all the talk about letting people vote was all a sham - they are going to lose that narrative.
Which was my point. It's not that the Dems couldn't do what they did, it's that it puts them in a weaker position to argue about the sanctity of votes, precisely because they are never going to admit their nominating process is a sham.
But they are hurt even more, IMO, by this post-partisan bullshit.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
you have to ask?
Suppose, as I and many others here had wished, John Edwards had won the primary?
anita hill, sarah palin, hillary clinton, many many more... rielle hunter would have been slimed just like all the others and the white male voters would be absolutely scrambling to cast their votes for him as a sop to all their wounded feelings over the many many injustices they've suffered at the hands of all the stupid bitchez in the world. edwards would have won in a landslide.
or not, but
lovemisogyny makes the world go round.None of which to my mind is justification for repeating untruth
Eh?
The Democratic Party didn't steal the nomination. Gotta stop repeating that. It will only be a part of the "serves you right" narrative if it is constantly repeated and becomes imbedded in the national psyche - so everyone stop, please.
The MSM media narrative will be what it has been for some time, the Republicans are masterful strong studly sorts who win because they understand the brutal reality that might makes right and isn't that the strength of character and steadfastness we need to protect us from the Evildoers who are coming to kill us and rape our daughters?
The Democrats will again be depicted as effete and out of touch, weak and ineffective, snobs looking down their noses at the common people while once more getting their asses handed to them by the noble righteous Godly warrior Republicans. Truth, honesty, education, knowledge, analysis, probity, equality, compassion, caring, none of that matters and will not be a part of the MSM narrative in the general election than it was in the primary - will it?
And you wonder that at a tactical level the Democratic Party are not as worried about sexism as you think they should be? Neither is most of the rest of the country. Not as it should be, but it is the way it is. You go into an election with the electorate you have, not the one you wish you had - or something like that. Again, at the risk of being repetitious: alligators first, then the swamp - IMHO.
On Dems Stealing the Vote All By Their Lonesome
Why is that such an incredibly silly proposition? The Democratic-sympathizing ACORN has been the focus, in recent weeks, of quite a few stories on some voter registration fraud in some key states, and this is just those that have been caught.
Cuyahoga County Board of Elections investigating registration fraud
10 more voter registration workers face investigation
This is not to say that the GOP has not mastered the art and science of election fraud, but I've been hearing quite a bit of news out of Democrats trying to game the system before the Republicans get their hands on it, again.
But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...