Real Clear politics, 311/142 with 85 tossups. Meaning that McCain could still win though the odds are low:

For McCain to win, he must hold all the states that went for President Bush four years ago, which would be enough to give him 286 Electoral College votes and victory. He could even lose one midsized Bush state, such as Virginia, which has 13 electoral votes, and still have more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.

To be sure, that won't be easy. Obama leads in many of those states, including Florida and Ohio narrowly. And McCain doesn't have any good prospects right now for offsetting the loss of a "red" state; he doesn't lead in a single state that went Democratic in 2004.

"It would take a perfect storm. Everything has to break his way," said Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Iowa, a Bush state in 2004 where McCain now trails. "All of a sudden, all of those states that are close or within the margin of error would have to tip back to McCn."

One way to win independent voters, analysts said, is to stay on the economic message that McCain's adopted in recent days, raising doubts about whether Obama's tax increases on the wealthy would hurt the economy while simultaneously convincing voters that McCain's plan is better for growth.

Already, McCain has gained on the issue of the economy, by far the top concern on voters' minds. The Ipsos/McClatchy Poll found likely voters preferring Obama to handle the economy by a margin of 7 points, a much narrower edge than his 16-point advantage the week before.

Obama can't close the deal on "It's the economy, stupid?" Guess the infomercial wasn't a fireside chat after all.