“because it moved the total available pledged delegates high enough that Obama cannot possibly win more than half”

…does he really have to win more than half?

She’s having a really good run.

I’ve got a friend, by no means a typical liberal or a Democrat, who got totally turned off to Obama when he threw the UCC under the bus. “At least McCain is not an empty suit.” And we’ve never talked seriously about politics, because, of course, I didn’t want anyone else yelling at me, filled with rage and contempt, because I didn’t support Obama.

Bringiton’s right. This is all going to fester.

So, hang in there, Hillary!

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

this is a good, solid summary of the weekend events for the dems.

i’m still a unclear about the consequences of obama quitting his church, but your comment that it was unprecedented will stick in my mind for a while.

that’s the Democratic Party’s motto - the deeper in they get with Obama, the more they keep digging (see Saturday’s clusterfuck). That’s been Hillary’s problem and it’s going to continue to be. These folks decided in February that Obama was going to change the party and build their oft-dreamed of but never achieved “new coalition.” Starting in March, voters started rejecting Obama in large numbers in critical states as Paul has documented. There is no evidence that this has had any effect on the party’s thinking.

Which leads me to question whether an Obama meltdown over the summer will have any effect. Sure, if he gets caught fucking someone other than his wife or Clinton supporters (rimshot), he’ll have to get out. But absent one big scandal, I’m not sure falling polls or support in key states will be enough to do it. It should be enough to do it, but that would require the Democrats to be good at winning elections. Instead, I suspect just as they’ve reasoned he’s being hurt by the on-going primary (instead of seeing the on-going primary as an opportunity to collect more data), the Democrats will rationalize that he’ll get that convention bounce and everyone will rally around him then. Sure, he’s had problems, but he can put them behind him at the convention and restart his campaign with a media blitz with all that GE money he’s going to have. And anyway, it would be too late in the cycle to change candidates. If it seems like he’s in a hole in late July/early August, then the answer will not be to find a candidate not in a hole, it will be to just keep digging.

I used to think otherwise, but after watching Saturday’s clusterfuck it’s quite clear to me that party leaders are divorced from reality.

That’s another positive. Very clear and realistic summary of where we are. I think HRC is in a very good position: looking strong and in control, no poop on her shoes, still making concise and detailed policy statements and, as always, setting the political-style bar high ala Mt. Rushmore. I love stuff like that Mt. Rushmore piece - it’s classy, smart and veteran.

I love this job!

After he delivers a diatribe at the top of his lungs, RBcommittee members complimented him and labeled his delivery as eloquent. Huh? Does he have something over these folks? Shocking.

I love this job!

two years. A lot can happen and I suspect it will.

I would love to hear from folks about what you expect or hope HRC to do during this 2 month break before the convention. My first thought is for her to make some high visibility presentations on policy, this may be difficult while we’re in full WWTSBQ but I think it’s possible. I also would like her more about the people/talent she would surround herself with should she get the nomination. I believe the names are out there but they need to be broadcast to the general public to bring more depth to what a HRC administration would entail.

I love this job!

You may be right. On the other hand, you may be wrong. That’s what keeps it interesting, at least for me.

There will be tremendous pressure on Clinton to quit once Obama gets to 2118 total, but she actually isn’t required to formally fold up shop nor is she required to make any declaration of who is or who is not the “presumptive” nominee.

I could be wrong, but I expect her to keep her campaign alive by simply “suspending” it, as Edwards has done and, IIRC, so has Richardson. It is a bit arcane, but the difference is critical in terms of being able to shift money; if she shuts the campaign down completely, she can’t use it to repay the debt to herself. Since that debt is some huge amount it would seem unlikely that anyone will force her, politically force her, to abandon it.

The delegates she’s attracted are going to be left in place, as is, out of “respect for the process.” A reasonable stance consistent with every other campaign that has ever been. Again, there is no amount of political force that can make her give instructions to her delegates about anything, much less about changing their votes in advance of the first Convention ballot.

What could the Party do to her at this point? Be mean, call her bad names? Make her promises? Yeah, sure, she’ll just walk away before the convention based on promises from Obama, sure she will. Her worst case is she goes back to the Senate, a secure seat, and waits for Obama to collapse in the general or while in the White House. Why would she need to give up anything for him or anyone else?

We’ll see what happens over the summer, but I wouldn’t look for a lot of Obama/Clinton joint campaigning. I do expect she will pivot her focus, and Bill’s, to attacking McCain. Personally I think she should have started doing that a long time ago, best thing for her. Give folks a preview of how she would go after him in the general. I expect that she and Bill will be really, really busy what with fundraisers to repay their campaign debt , loyally raising money for DSCC and DNC campaign coffers, and campaigning in Senate races like KY an LA where the Dems need some support. Bill would love to help his dear friend Obama, but he will also have to get back on the speaking tour while Chelsea will need to get back to her day job, adult responsibilities and all. “Good Luck, Barak! Write if you get work.”

“Let Obama be Obama” will be Clinton’s plan, and depending on how well he does at that she still has a serious chance the Convention will turn. IIRC, at Convention time Kerry was at least even and Dukakis was well ahead (+17). While both Gore and McGovern were well behind, there were no other available candidates who polled any better. To nominate a candidate who is weak in the polls while another candidate, one who did well in the primaries, is polling strong would truly be self-destructive on an historic scale.

I’m not so anti-Obama as many others around here. All I care about right now is winning in November. If Obama appeared solid in polls nationally and for the Electoral College, I wouldn’t even be having this discussion. For me, the difference between any Democrat and any Republican is so huge that I don’t have to really think about it; I just vote “D”. Whatever needs doing after the election I’ll deal with then.

Not winning, however, is for me unacceptable. Going with the weaker candidate, however confident one might be of a Party victory, strikes me as damn foolish. I don’t expect to give up on Clinton until I have to, after the convention is over, or if Obama makes a huge positive move in the polls. Call me an unprincipled political slut, I don’t care; all that matters for me is the win.

[Plus, Harold Ickes will need something to keep him occupied over the summer, and I’m guessing he won’t be getting one of those “welcome back” leadership roles with Obama. Poking and prodding at the superdelegates one at a time will suit him just fine, although it is that back-room kind of politics that Hillary supporters find so distasteful. :-)]

Yes, give or take, the numbers I see floated around show her ahead. The popular vote is what it is, the R&BC decision had no effect. That kind of sillyness is just more Obama camp propaganda. Several of the caucus staes didn’t report numbers, since they aren’t normally tallied, but so what? You count the voters you can count, and whoever has the most has the most.

The nomination is made on the basis of delegates, not popular vote, so it is only symbolic, but it is a pretty potent symbol. It may not be enough to keep Obama from getting past 2118 in the delegates, but it will be a very convenient out should the Convention need to make a change.

R&BC was all about getting all cozy and close again with DFL and DMI. Wexler could have taken a crap on the table and they would have praised him for the size and the smell. It was all for show; IMHO a mistake to take it to seriously. (I know, poorly done and bad sportsmanship and fudging the rules but in the big scheme, a footnote - just my opinion.)

because the best way to not be disappointed is never, ever underestimate the Democratic Party’s ability to fuck things up and lose an election. It works along with the corollary to never ever underestimate how much the media and party elite hate Hillary and Bill Clinton.

I don’t think she’ll concede. I expect a suspension and a vow to work for the nominee. I think she will urge her supporters to do the same. She may go a bit further, but I don’t think she’ll totally walk away. She’s not going to trust Obama or anyone else and I don’t think it was entirely bullshit when she told SDs that she doesn’t think Obama can win. I think she really believes that and will find a way to keep herself as an option.

But she’s going to have to walk a very fine line because Donna Brazile and Barack Obama and, yes, even Dean, Pelosi, and Reid would love to have someone to blame if Obama loses in November. So would the media. She has to say enough so that she can’t be accused of splitting the party.

And I’m not giving up on her until the convention either, but I have just about given up on the party.

For the record, I don’t find backroom deals distasteful per se. They are only distasteful to me when they are incompetently done and undercut the purpose they purport to serve. I had no problem with MI/FL being resolved by a deal. I have a huge problem with putting on a show that even my dog wouldn’t believe and then making a decision that, again, even my dog could see would make the party more difficult and not less difficult to unify (and which was unnecessary to get to the ultimate goal of nominating Obama). That’s terrible, awful politics. And I do hold the party responsible for that.

As I’ve said, I expect two things from the Democratic Party: 1) that they reflect my values most of the time or on the very big things, and 2) that they care about beating Republicans. Saturdays fiasco, like so much of this campaign season, violated both of these two things. If it had helped with number 2, I might forgive number 1 or vice versa. Instead, it insulted my intelligence, violated my principles, and was absolutely horrid politics.

For me, the difference between any Democrat and any Republican is so huge that I don’t have to really think about it; I just vote “D”.

He selects a gooper for VP? For me, that’s a dealbreaker, I don’t vote for goopers.

0. “black cloud”
1. Obama is black
2. Obama is vaporous
3. Why do you hate Obama?

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

More boring bullet points about policy! (not ironic; the press hates them, but voters love them.)

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

That works for me, bringiton.

Demolish McCain on health care and push for the right thing too and, as a happy side effect, put it to Obama. When the convention votes for him, he’s the nominee, and not before, so far as I’m concerned. Two months is a long time in politics, especially with the scales so closely balanced and a declining candidate…

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

And everyone else for a first-rate discussion.

Haw.

I join with Leah in praising this post. As always, a bracing shot of realism.

Nonetheless, let’s remember that legitimacy is only achieved with soft power….

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Very kind of you. I am touched.

All kind comments much appreciated. (ALL comments always appreciated, but I am human.) We still have a long haul here, and the current nastiness will not help anyone. Most especially, there is Republican Evil to be defeated, at all levels, and there does need to be an eventual pulling together to get that done.

Yes, cenobite, I will have to hold a gun to my own head if it is an Obama/R ticket, but I will do that over any R/R ticket.

Not everyone appreciates sports metaphors, but I find baseball to be so instructive for life, in so many ways.

The key strategy on offense in baseball is to not make an out. Anything else is a good at-bat, because “not out” means you are still in the game - and still in the game means you can still win, no matter how far behind you may be.

And all this “clinching” crapola makes me think we’re dealing with football fans. And while football is a great game it is, after all, only a game….

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Metaphors, so difficult to manage.

For me the game goes on, after the nomination, after the election, until I’m called out for the last time. Should have made that clearer.

I don’t won’t can’t agree with the “it’s all over now” kind of thinking. If you get knocked down you pick yourself up, dust yourself off and dig in for another swing. You run out every hit. When you can, you take the extra base, and when you slide you slide hard. No backing down, no giving up.

It is a long game, not played by the clock, and not for the fainthearted.

(The “clinched” talk reminds me not so much of football as of WWE-WrestleMania. Huffing and puffing and screaming and yelling and “clinches” as fake as a three-dollar bill.)

Via Talk Left, ARG has two new polls today for Montana and South Dakota:

Montana:

Obama 48%
Clinton 44%
Undecided 8%

South Dakota:

Obama 34%
Clinton 60%
Undecided 6%

Now, I don’t think that South Dakota poll is right and I even suspect Montana isn’t as close as it appears. But wouldn’t it be something if tomorrow night, we get Montana as “too close to call” (I have no doubt it will end in Obama’s column) and a fairly comfortable Clinton win in South Dakota, Tom Daschle’s home state.

will get you a hole in the wall.

Total shock if she even gets close in either one. Bigger import, no D will win either state in the general. More meaningless R state delegates for Obama.

In addition to the last two primaries, we might be getting a Rezko verdict. The jury is deadlocked on one count, but appears to have reached a verdict on the other 23 counts.

Not sure that’s good or bad news or even relevant news for Clinton, but I wasn’t sure where else to put this.

Throw the Rezco shitpile on my thread. :-)

I can’t make anything out of this, beyond the obvious smell, but the Rs sure will. Sigh.