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If Obama didn't suck, his campaign team wouldn't need to rebrand him

Ugh. A billion dollars won't save this guy. Stick a fork in him.

I've got to stop writing on the horse race. It's literally bad for my stomach and my heart. And it's nothing but dis- and misinformation, anyhow. But who can resist the horrid fascination of a trainwreck?

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Submitted by Hugh on

You have to wonder what the White House is seeing and thinking in terms of votes in the 2012 election. I think they are wedded to the notion that progressives will come back to the nest because they have in the past. Alternately, they can be scared into coming back by a nutcase Republican contender.

This approach may work among some liberal Democrats, but one of the memes which we have legitimized is that Obama really isn't that much different in his policies from the extreme Republicans. He has afterall continued and expanded most of Bush's policies, and if that doesn't qualify him as a rightwing conservative, what does?

I don't think that Obama will lose all of the base, but a large chunk of it is likely to abstain either by staying home (young voters and the old), voting for third parties or voting for local candidates but not for President (progressives). Just as importantly, these groups are not going to be volunteering to his re-election effort. As for the independents Obama supposedly covets so much, they'll either vote Republican or stay at home.

I think Obama also is relying heavily on the African American vote. He probably will get most of it, but even here he is surprisingly vulnerable. We're already hearing some rumblings. We need to keep hitting on African American unemployment (16.7%). It's more than twice that of whites. Unemployment among teenage African Americans is one in two. And these are the U-3 numbers. Actual disemployment will be a lot higher. Then too there was the recent Pew study that showed that white median wealth was 20 times that of African Americans, and nearly that big a difference between whites and Hispanics. If Obama has done nothing for whites, the truth is he has done less than nothing for African Americans.

We are 15 months out from the election and I see the electoral politics of an Obama run as only getting worse.

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Submitted by DCblogger on

will be devastating. Political consultants acts as if there is no connection between winning the votes of independents and the party base. But group dynamics are a big part of winning elections. Independent voters are swayed by TV advertisements, but they also need to see signs of support on the ground. They expect to see the candidate's supporters marching in the July 4th parade, they expect to see candidate booths at the county fair, they expect to see yard signs, not just on the side of the road, but on people's yards. It is the party base who preforms these tasks. If they just sit out the election, or only do these things for the local candidates, then independent voters will be less likely to respond to TV commercials.

As for the African American vote, across the country Republicans have created additional barriers to voting for the precise purpose of suppressing the African American vote. Even with such barriers, it is possible, thru sustained voter registration drives by organizations such as ACORN to drive up AA turn out. But ACORN no longer exists. I really think its demise was a contributing factor to the 2010 debacle. The very sort of people who did the thankless work of voter registration and GOTV are the very people repelled by the Obama administration. Even though Obama'a support among AA remains high, it does not follow that turn out will be high.