While I’ll jump all over SCLM approved polls, I suspect this one has a little more value. I’m not sure if it has great value, given how much can and always does change in the run up to the election, but it’s an interesting snapshot of now, at least (look under June 13, 2006 entry, CC doesn’t do live links):

A May 13 National Journal Insiders Poll of 103 members of the Republican establishment had 63 picking the senator from Arizona as the most likely nominee, 20 choosing Allen, and 10 opting for Romney. The results are quite different from those of the Cook/RT Strategies poll, though a survey at this point is heavily influenced by name recognition, while the Insiders Poll shows where the “smart money” is inclined to place a bet. It was also a marked shift from the December Insiders Poll that had Allen and McCain neck and neck with 39 and 38 votes, respectively, and Giuliani with 7.

One explanation is that Allen, as the most Bush-like candidate, has been badly hurt by the president’s popularity plunge, while the nomination of maverick McCain was always more likely to be based on electability, or perhaps desperation, than on his being the first choice of conservatives and the party establishment.

McCain’s chances have long appeared to be in direct proportion to the perceptions within the GOP that Clinton would be the Democratic nominee and that McCain would have the best chance of beating her. If a less polarizing Democrat were likely to win the nomination, say a Bayh, a Vilsack, or a Warner, McCain’s stock might fall a bit.

On the other side, Clinton led among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in the Cook/RT Strategies poll with 37 percent. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts held second place with 20 percent, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina landed in third with 12 percent. In the second tier, Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware ran fourth with 5 percent, and there was a three-way tie for third between retired Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas, Sen. Russell Feingold of Wisconsin, and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, each with 3 percent. Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana had 2 percent, and Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, the latest to throw his hat toward the ring, had 1 percent. Clinton’s strongholds were women (45 percent), nonwhites (50 percent), Northeast voters (51 percent), those with some college education (47 percent), and those ages 35 to 49 (44 percent).

In the NJ poll of 108 Democratic insiders, 73 picked Clinton as the most likely nominee, 10 picked Warner, and seven chose former Vice President Gore, who all but swore off the race last week.

When the front-runners were matched up in the poll, McCain led Clinton by 7 points, 47 percent to 40 percent. McCain carried Republicans by 86 percent to 6 percent; Clinton dominated Democrats 78 to 16 percent. McCain held an 11-point lead among independents, 45 to 34 percent, while Clinton edged him among women, 45 to 43 percent. The Republican prevailed among men by 19 points.

Of course, I’m not impressed by people who still call McCain a “maverick,” but I guess that meme is still in play. Which makes no sense to me, as I was pretty sure we’d killed that one here on the Internets. McCain’s lead in the I category tells me all I need to know about why some are keeping that alive.

I was just reading something that I can’t find now, but the author made a point I can’t help but steal. It seems people like Pelosi and Murtha are already talking to other dems about what they’ll do as majority leaders, passing out letters and strategy notes and whatnot, assuming that victory is assured. Well, it’s not. Rove still isn’t in jail, Fitz still hasn’t produced a conviction, we’re still spending billions every month “in” Iraq, etc. It seems to me that the only thing that’s really changed is that there is so much anger and frustration about the Bush administration that the SCLM has no choice but to occasionally let that bubble up. Which is great, but hardly enough, if various recent polls about the Republican “bounce” are true. I’m not going to talk about the voting machine problem here, but obviously nothing much has changed there either, except that more precincts than ever are using them.

Careful observers have noted again and again: Hill and McCain aren’t exactly progressives. Of course I’d rather have her than him, but if these numbers mean anything, they mean that progressives have to get their shit in gear and get to work. Matt has a nice list of places and people where we can start, so get busy.