Iran's governing elite starts to split

Reuters

Pro-reform clerics in Iran stepped up criticism of the authorities on Sunday after more than a week of unprecedented popular defiance against the leadership of the Islamic Republic.

EDITORS' NOTE: Reuters and other foreign media are subject to Iranian restrictions on their ability to report, film or take pictures in Tehran.

But in an indication of their determination to crack down hard on demonstrations which culminated in the death of at least 10 people on Saturday, authorities dismissed the protesters as "terrorists" and rioters.

They also detained the daughter of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani during an opposition rally in Tehran on Saturday, according to state media.

A disputed June 12 election which returned to power hardline anti-Western President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has sparked the most violent unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution which ousted the U.S.-backed shah.

As authorities fulminated against protesters backing defeated presidential candidate Mirhossein Mousavi, moderate former president Mohammad Khatami signaled increased opposition among pro-reform clerics to Iran's conservative leadership.

"Preventing people from expressing their demands through civil ways will have dangerous consequences," Khatami, a Mousavi ally, said in a statement, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported.

His comment, implying criticism of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has backed a ban on protests and defended the outcome of the election, found an echo with Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, the most senior dissident cleric.

This doesn't sound like a story that's going to end soon. That's all I can say, and I hope somebody more knowledgeable weighs in.

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Numerian has good write-up about the Iran election and protests

at The Agonist. Rafsanjani wanted to gain more power, get his person in the presidency, but most of all, apparently, he wanted Khamenei out and himself or his choice in.

Sometimes revolts, like wars, have a life of their own. Rafsanjani may have wanted to just displace the current mullah leadership. Instead, he may get a destruction of the Islamist Revolution in Iran. Or...the current power structure may be made stronger.

And what then? Well, the US does like its strong man lackeys in charge of governments with resources we want....

Tina in comments provides a link to this article by Patrick Cockburn which suggests the revolt has peaked and will not succeed.

Tina also wonders: "youtube says it will allow videos showing violence for documentary purpose, will they start showing Chinese ones next?" (Don't count on it.)

The longer this continues

The more I'm convinced that nothing's going to change, let alone the ending of the Islamic Revolution. As was said on another post, the current uprising will be successful so long as law enforcement stays neutral or even decides to help the opposition. No one has flipped, not the IRG nor the police, and with the thuggish Basij militia (really, WTF? Why aren't they getting more attention, in this?) running around almost completely under the auspices of both, I don't see anything changing.

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

We can't know, though

It looks like the split goes top to bottom, but (as in the Thailand revolt) it does not do to read Iranian events through the US lens, and the press is horribly untrustworthy. So...

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

Interesting article on Iran:

Khamenei rides a storm in a tea cup by M K Bhadrakumar in Asia Times

Cast of characters and some possible plot lines.