There's a good reason for the recent Obamabot psyops, pundit declarations, general wailing and at times cajoling Clinton supporters have been subjected to since her recent Indiana victory was spun into a loss: Clinton still has a very good chance of securing the nomination.
What's more, the next few days are absolutely critical for her and her supporters. The end is only here if we allow the latest round to depress morale and turnout for the upcoming WV and KY primaries.
Jay Cost at RCP lays out why Clinton's down but not out. First some numbers and demographics:
Two things are holding me back: West Virginia and Kentucky.
--SNIP--
However, it is possible that she could counter Tuesday's blowout with two big blowouts of her own in the next two weeks. This could undo most of the damage done by her big loss in North Carolina, and put her back on track.
West Virginia is 95% white, and one of the poorest states in the nation. Demographically, Pennsylvania's twelfth congressional district is a decent proxy of it. Clinton won Pennsylvania's twelfth by 46 points. A recent Rasmussen survey put her up 29 points in the Mountaineer State, with 17% undecided. Another poll had her up 40 points, with Obama under 25%.
Kentucky is not as poor or as white as West Virginia, but it is nearly so. Demographically, Kentucky falls somewhere between Ohio's sixth congressional district, which went for Clinton by 45 points, and the seventeenth, which went for her by 28 points. A recent Survey USA poll of the Bluegrass State had her up 34 points - with a staggering 72 point lead in the east, where Obama was winning less than 20% of the vote. Rasmussen recently had her up 25 points with 13% undecided.
And if the demographics hold as they have in every contest?
What happens to "It's Over" if Clinton pulls a 40-point victory in West Virginia on Tuesday, then follows it up a week later with a 30-point victory in Kentucky? If these states turn out in the same margins that states since March 4th have averaged, that would imply a net of about 290,000 votes for Clinton. That puts her within striking distance of a reasonable popular vote victory. "Over" will be over as we turn our attention to Puerto Rico.
Once again all the stepped-up moaning, trolling, and general media drivel we're hearing is an attempt to lower our morale and prevent these blowouts from happening. However, the path to the nomination is clear and goes through Hillary-friendly territory.
There are good reasons not to take Puerto Rico lightly, even though the press has continued to do exactly that. I would note: (a) Puerto Ricans vote in large numbers (2 million in the last gubernatorial election); (b) Puerto Ricans have never had this important a role in United States presidential politics; (c) Puerto Rico's politics is focused at least partially on how (if at all) to adjust its relationship with the United States; (d) Puerto Rico's is an open primary, and the residents of the Commonwealth, who are United States citizens, do not see themselves as Republicans or Democrats.
The inference I draw is that Puerto Ricans could turn out in huge numbers. If they do, and they swing for Clinton in a sizeable way, the popular vote lead could swing, too. Add 290,000 votes from West Virginia and Kentucky to 250,000 votes from Puerto Rico, account for expected losses in Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, and you get Clinton leading in many popular vote counts, some of which are really quite valid. If she has one of those leads when the final votes are counted on June 3rd, the race will go on to the convention.
So Hillary supporters we're days away from doing the impossible once again. It's time to dig-down deep, donate your money, time, phone banking skills, shoe-leather or whatever you can to secure victory. It is well within our grasp and ability to do this.
Need more incentive? How about the hostile takeover of our party lambert and others have so eloquently described? If you need still need more, go read about the prophesied Obamanation.
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Creating their own reality... Been there, done that...
... Got everything that goes with it.
I keep thinking that, if they really had it in the bag, they wouldn't be screaming so loud that they've got it in the bag -- and then attributing Hillary's persistence to, er, psychological factors ("You know how women are...")
Eh?
I mean, why doesn't Obama just release the 50 SDs he's got in the bag and have done with it?
NOTE And I love that "elite opinion" has congealed around Obama triumphalism. This is the Village. They're always wrong about everything.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Today Is Hillary Money Friday
If you have it, shoot a few bucks. If nothing else, do it for Chris Bowers.
It's Going to Be Really Embarrassing
If Clinton can win WVA and KY by enough to keep Obama from being able to declare 2025 victory on May 20th or if the magic number moves out of his reach on May 31. What a shame that would be.
I gotta hand Hillary one
I gotta hand Hillary one thing. Unlike Kerry, who said he would make sure every vote was counted and then folded, she is fighting tooth and nail.
Imagine if she were the candidate and she lost by a questionable small margin in Ohio or Florida or wherever to McCain. I have to believe that she would fight so we would not have another 2000 or 2004 dubious Republican victory.
Meanwhile, Obama's fighting tooth and nail...
... to disenfranchise two states (and yes, he could have gone for the revotes, everyone would have found a way to fall in line, and he'd have assured himself of legitimacy. Oh well).
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Obama's super del lead
is 267-265 according to ABC. As Hillary supporters like to say KY and WV are two states that "don't matter". They're going Repub in the fall anyway.
WV has been a blue state for past elections
And so was KY until 2000.
Another reason to not like Obama supporters, they are unaware of history. They know WV and KY are hick places, so they must go red.
Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!
He who will not reason is a bigot; he who cannot is a fool; and he who dares not is a slave.
- Sir William Drummond
the media narrative...
the "presumptive nominee" status of Obama will remain, but now "serious questions will be raised" about Obama's electability.
Personally, I think that Hillary supporters should say that Obama IS the presumptive nominee -- so that next week, when the WV results come in, we can all say that its a protest vote against Obama -- a complete and utter repudiation of the choice of Obama for the Democratic Party that tells us that Democratic voters are not going to vote for Obama just because he's the nominee of the Democratic Party.
I mean, if you look around the Oblogosphere, its not hard to find people trumpeting McCain's failure to get 80% in Indiana and North Carolina. If that is supposedly bad news for the GOP nominee, the failure of the "presumptive nominee" of the Democratic party to break 40% in WV and KY should be considered an absolute cataclysm.
Oy, I see we've got some folks
who are trying to prove my main thesis correct.
PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!
Do You Know Anything About Political History?
WVA has gone blue in 3 out of the last five elections (88, 92, 96) and six out of the last ten. It's a swing state, at least if Obama isn't the nominee. Clinton leads McCain in the latest SUSA poll. Just because Obama is losing to McCain by 29 points, doesn't mean no democrat can win the state.
KY just elected a Democratic Governor, the Republican party there is scandal-marred, and it went twice for Bill Clinton. Moreover, Hillary only trails McCain by 2 in the most recent SUSA poll. Again, just because Obama is trailing McCain by 34 points doesn't mean the state can't be won by any democrat.
they are unaware of history
damned right Aeryl.
In the last three presidential elections, there is only 1.6% difference in the GOP favor's in terms of the popular vote.
If you go back two more elections, the 5 election average shows a Democratic advantage of 2.7%
Compare those to the numbers from states that Obama supposedly puts "in play"
VA 3 years -- 9.1% GOP advantage
5 years -- 6.7% GOP advantage
NC 3 years -- 14.3% GOP advantage
5 years -- 13.1% GOP advantage
CO 3 years -- 3.7% GOP advantage
5 years -- 4.9% GOP advantage
and that list is very long.
I got some history for you
Those who don't learn from history...
I'd try to play dumb, but I'm not that smart.
Here's HRCs letter to BO re FL/MI delegates
An open letter to Senator Obama. I hear that Bill Clinton mentioned on a conference call this morning that MI is close to being settled (BO gets uncommitted) and FL may be done soon. Good news.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/05/08/...
I love this job!
I love this job!
Swing STate SDs Pen Letter in Support of HRC to Peers
"...On the first question, Hillary has shown she can win the all-important battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida even while being outspent. This speaks to her ability to connect with voters we must deliver in the fall, including blue collar Democrats who can sway this election as they have in the past.
On the second question, Hillary has won rural and suburban districts which we as Democrats must carry to maintain our edge in Congress. Of the fifteen districts rated “toss up” by the Cook Political Report, Hillary has now won ten. Of the 20 districts we picked up in 2006 that had gone for President Bush just two years before, Hillary has now won 16. She is strong in the places we must win to hold and expand our majority...."
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/relea...
I love this job!
I love this job!
What should they do?
"I keep thinking that, if they really had it in the bag, they wouldn’t be screaming so loud that they’ve got it in the bag ..."
What should they be doing? This is not rhetorical. I do not know what people who think they won would be doing other than saying repeatedly that they won.
For example, I can't think of an important sporting event where the fans of the winning team didn't start cheering as soon as they knew they had it in the bag. There might be some time on the clock, but the cheering starts when there's no doubt left in anybody's mind (except the losing teams fans who say it ain't over till the clock says 0:00 and want the winning fans to pipe down).
"Clinton still has a very good chance of securing the nomination."
For the record, the article cited does not say that. The OP uses the analysis of the heavily block-quoted article to conclude that there is a "very good chance."
However, the author does not, based on his own analysis, believe that: "My point is that those in the media who are declaring this race to be over are necessarily predicting that she can't do all of this. That's a conclusion I can't go along with. It's quite unlikely, but it is still possible - and it is more possible than the "Obama might have a meltdown" scenario."
Moreover, even the author acknowledges that he is amongst 5% of people that believe there is a path for Clinton to the nomination. When 95% of analysts believe that there is no path for Clinton to the nomination, Obama supporters are not "Creating their own reality" to believe he has the nomination "in the bag."
Was George McGovern creating his own reality?
"Well, I think the battle is about over. Senator Obama has won almost a majority of the delegates. He’s way out in front, I think somewhere around a 150-delegate lead. I’m told that the superdelegates are about evenly divided between the two candidates, so that’s not going to change much if that ratio continues."
OMG Awesome grapic!
Can I steal it?
PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!
What should they do?
Ask for my vote?
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi