Is it time to panic on Iran yet? If not, when?

vastleft's picture

NYT:

Senior staff members of the United Nations nuclear agency have concluded in a confidential analysis that Iran has acquired “sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable” atom bomb.

The report by experts in the International Atomic Energy Agency stresses in its introduction that its conclusions are tentative and subject to further confirmation of the evidence, which it says came from intelligence agencies and its own investigations.

But the report’s conclusions, described by senior European officials, go well beyond the public positions taken by several governments, including the United States.

Two years ago, American intelligence agencies published a detailed report concluding that Tehran halted its efforts to design a nuclear weapon in 2003. But in recent months, Britain has joined France, Germany and Israel in disputing that conclusion, saying the work has been resumed.

A senior American official said last week that the United States was now re-evaluating its 2007 conclusions.

If this isn't a call to starve and/or slaughter the Iranian people, I don't know what is. Senior staff members (senior!) of the UN have concluded (concluded!) in a confidential analysis (confidential!) that Iran has certain information. Do you want those near-Arabs to have information!? Not just any information, of course, but information that could lead to WMD-related information programs!

We must act now, without taking time to ponder how "conclusions" can be "tentative." Because the not-yet "confirmed" evidence came from not just any intelligence agency, but from unstated plural "intelligence agencies"! You can look it up (in the confidential report)!

There used to be* a popular bumper sticker that read "Question Authority." There really should be one that says "Question 'Intelligence,'" since even some of the best of them/us don't.

Alas, Arthur Silber's recent extraordinary post on the subject would be hard to read off the back of a moving car. But if you someday find yourself with access to the internet, read his masterpiece on why you should question "intelligence."

NOTE: Glenn, in a post update, observes a tug-of-war within the Obama administration on whether to embrace the new findings. The NSA chief says he's not buying, yet other senior (!) figures are feeding these stories to the Times. In the meantime, how many of us are learning not to follow the shiny objects called "intelligence reports"?

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* One would assume that with the Greatest Administration Evah in charge, there's currently no market for such a decal, at least for the hippie demographic.

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