Just Wait Until Oil Starts to Creep Back Up and the PseudoBubble Bursts

Gee, I’m so shocked. Not. There is a limit, to graft, to cronyism, to the false narratives which speak of easy profit for some, but not all, at the expense of most. So many things play into this, not the least of which is that a lot of people must be starting to think about the end of various gravy trains, and asking themselves if a 1.5 hour commute to and from a “community” with no community is really worth the $2,467/mo mortgage. Also: building standards, anyone? Compare your average bungalo in Chicago’s classic 1920s ’hoods with your average exurban development, and it’s more than clear which one isn’t going to last 35 years without significant decay and rot. Yes, I’m having a schadenfreude moment, because so many of our environmental problems are a direct result of the madness that made these communities desirable, at the expense of so much. Perhaps now some of these communities will listen when people like me speak of such “unimportant” or “irrational” issues like the water table, public transportation, integration of schools, moderated development schedules, etc:

Exurbs hardest hit in recent housing slump
Distant suburbs of major cities experiencing biggest decline in price and sales since summer of 2005.
February 6 2007: 4:14 PM EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — While the U.S. housing downturn has depressed once-thriving real estate markets around the nation, far-flung suburbs of major cities have suffered the most abrupt market correction.

Home construction in these distant exurbs has slowed and prices and sales have fallen more than those of close-in suburban neighbors since a five-year U.S. housing boom ended in the summer of 2005.

Average home prices in Loudon County, Virginia, 35 miles outside of Washington, D.C., fell roughly 11 percent in 2006, according to the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors. By contrast, Virginia’s Arlington County, which hugs the nation’s capital, saw a price decline of only about 2 percent.

Real estate: Who’s buying now
“It’s been hard for sellers to comprehend, and I’m usually the bearer of bad news,” said Mike Wagner, a real estate broker who works in Loudon. “The news is: Your home is worth $100,000 less than it was a year and a half ago.”

And it’s not just prices that have suffered.

The average Loudon County home sold in December spent 101 days on the market, according to the Realtor group. In Arlington, the average was 72 days.

Wagner and other local real estate agents say the area’s soft market is a hangover, in part, from a building spree and a buying binge among investors priced out of other areas.

The same holds true for California, where exurban housing markets have softened more than those close to urban centers.

Home prices in Los Angeles rose a relatively modest 5.8 percent in December from a year earlier, while sales were down 14.5 percent, the California Association of Realtors said.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties, which are on the eastern edge of Los Angeles’ suburban frontier, saw a more modest 3.9 percent increase in prices, while sales volume plummeted 40.6 percent. High Desert, about 80 miles from downtown Los Angeles, saw just a 1.3 percent increase in sales price and a 39 percent drop in the number of sales.

Some observers blame the sales stall in the Los Angeles area on home builders who for years gobbled up available land in exurban tracts and overbuilt. Areas closer to the city are already built out and have not faced a big injection of new homes, said Leslie Appleton, an economist with the California Association of Realtors.

Now, real estate agents in the exurbs trying to sell a glut of new homes, along with the inventory of previously owned houses.

“There is intense competition in the inland areas of the state between the existing stock and new homes,” said Appleton. “The absorption of this new product is going to take some time.”

And while new buyers are needed to sop up the housing stock, many investor-owners are losing their properties through bankruptcy, said Jesse Ramirez, a real estate agent in Riverside.

Short version of this post: in the long and medium runs, racism never pays.

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Well, they can just get jobs near their McMansions, right?

Oh, wait. There’s nothing out there, is there?

Actually, though, CD, to be fair… I remember reading a year or so ago about houses in the Northern Pennsylvania exurbs — I’m sorry, “the dream of home ownership — that were sold to people with bad credit ratings who also had to commute all the way into Manhattan, maybe 2 1/2 hours away. Of course, they were sold with variable mortgages, so the mortgages began to bite, then the gas prices began to bite, and the bottom line is that they lost their homes to foreclosure, and all the money they’d paid, too.

And as I recall, a lot of them were black.

No authoritarians were tortured in the writing of this post.

Stirling was right

About the American Thermidor.

But I still believe
And I will rise up with fists!!

therimdor is a post before its time

and i’m sorry, lb. but i can’t have too much feeling for exurban ’bad risk’ buyers. why? because i was one of those ’bad risk’ would be buyers (oh so long ago, it seems now) who was turned down when i wanted to buy an urban property. “it has no long term value,” i was told. but exurban enclave gated property does? um, no.

i rich friend of mine has an investment portfolio that includes foreign financial vehicles. a long time back, she got into japanese “multi-generational” mortgages. in japan, it seems, families sign mortgages that last for several generations, and each generation lives in the same property. this happens because there are literally no other choices for a young, “working class” japanese family when it comes to owning property.

there are several solutions. we could reevaluate how we think about “property” and “banking.” we could better understand that not everyone needs to live the life of the gas guzzling hyperconsumer who enjoys a life of ease based upon the labor of third world slave labor. would could face our energy issues, and climate issues, and begin to build in a way that accepts the shape of the future, in all the environmental and demographic senses.

but we don’t do that. as you say, exurbanites would rather live far, far away from dirty fucking hippies and niggers, guzzling gas to go to their urban jobs, than develop sustainable communities in which everyone can share in the wealth and opportunity. i won’t say “fuck ’em,” but i will say- sorry, you brought this on yourself. and it’s only going to get harder. to which i reply: welcome to the life most of us (brown, urban/deep rural)people have lived in for a generation.

Well...when 'peak oil' happens...

they’ll all be starving to death out there as there will be no way to get food to them.

So says James Kunstler anyhow.

Us Dirty F$%kin’ Hippies may yet have the last word.

Maybe.

Seriously, you are right to point out that none of these homes are gonna last for a generation due to their being built really, really shitty.

Just like the Twin Towers…

But that’s a story for another comment.
.

Peak oil is already here

Read Twilight in the Desert.

So, to grossly caricature the bottom line these comments are coming to:

1. We have a trillion dollar defense establishment

2. To fight the wars

3. To protect the oil

4. That fuels the SUVs

5. That take the exurbanites

6. To their Christianist megachurches

7. in the “racially covenanted” exurbs?

Tell me again why I’m paying for that — and not having my cities protected from the inevitable blowback?

No authoritarians were tortured in the writing of this post.

That's easy

Because a long time ago, the slave states rigged the system in their favor, and they’ve still got us by the balls.

But I still believe
And I will rise up with fists!!