Live from Cairo (8)

11:44PM Now 6:44AM in Cairo; dawn.

More light by the minute.

10:42PM No Tienanman so far. Could the outcome be good?

9:15PM (4:00AM in Cairo). Dark before the dawn. Demonstrators seem to have taken then 6 of October overpass, north of Museum, which would be awesome.

6:51PM (2:00AM in Cairo) Seems to be a confrontation building in one of the streets off Tahrir Square. Pro-Mub forces, who people in the residential blocks along the streets recognize as local policemen, are building, in methodical and "leisurely" fashion, a barricade. So. Map here.

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Gathering stones.

The square at night.

BBC:

Khaled Kamal, a doctor in Cairo, tells the BBC: "The pro-Mubarak protesters were the usual regime mercenaries that we used to see each time they want to end the peaceful protests. People are crying because they fear they have lost what we have built up over the last few days. We tried so hard to keep the protests peaceful. Now we don't know if we should continue or stop because of the potential for violence. At the same time we don't want to lose what we achieved in the last few days. If the opposition groups don't find a solution we will march again on Friday, maybe on the presidential palace. But the real question is what will happen in Tahrir Square tomorrow."

As Votermom said.

7:03PM Rep: Definitely a retreat by the pro-Dem forces, now surging forward. Anch: Is it easy to tell who's who? Rep: Pro-Dem pushed back pro-Mub onto a bridge. Sealed off square to protect from attack. A second line inside, anchored on the Museum. Running back and forth, not clear why.

7:13PM Egyptian TV is not showing anything from events of the evening.

7:14PM Anch: How protected yourselves? Protester: Barriers from construction. Their bridge is far away, and it's a standoff. The mlitary did not prevent them from coming too close, holding clubs and Molotov cocktails. Military have been useless. Anch: Where does this end? Int: Only thing I can say. We've lost three guys at least and maybe four, yet we keep coming back, resisting by throwing rocks. Medical staff are behind the line of fire. We plan to continue to hold our ground [until the barricades move in? Unclear].

7:18PM AJ Tweet Tension is rising at kasr al nil entrance to tahrir, they expect an attack here.

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Tahrir Square, via Google Earth. Click on the image for a larger image. The museum is up top. TS proper is the circular area down at the bottom. It looks like a construction area in the middle, where materials for barricades were gathered.

Now watch this excellent video from Cooper (CNN) as he points out the salient features. The front line (at least last night) was not in the square proper at bottom right, but near the museum, at top left.

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Jack Shenker, Guardian:

It's almost 2am in Egypt, and amid all the drama on our screens and rumours zipping around on the web, we shouldn't lose sight of one basic and incredible fact – for the ninth night running, ordinary Egyptians are on the streets in their thousands, still bound together with remarkable social solidarity, still battling their three-decade-old dictatorial regime, still holding their ground even as it is rained on by rocks and molotov cocktails.

Downtown Cairo is aflame tonight, its streets playing host to block-by-block, roof-by-roof, corner-by-corner urban warfare – but it's the bravery behind those fighting that battle that should really be leaving people open-mouthed.

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Int DC Steve Cook, CFR: Existential for regime, with which Army is deeply enmeshed. Mub "defiant to the end." A sense of some change: Elevation of Sul. Find a graceful exit for Mub, and that means get the country under control. He's not going to run out, and his plane is not going to traverse the Mediterranean looking for places to land.

["Get the country under control?" How? The Army could go the Tiananmen, and lose all legitimacy, and the troops might not obey. The cops could try, but unless they can do it tonight, not likely -- today was long-planned. So... Who does the regime dialog with? In a way the pro-Democracy forces have thrown the steering wheel out the window in the game of chicken: There really is no leader to negotiate with. The only way for Mub to gracefully leave is ... For him to leave. --lambert]

8:15PM Rep: Square may not be sealed of South and West. At leats 50% wearing bandages, tired, bringing food and water from outside. Army in the middle of the square, nothing happening. Pro-govt are leaving [why?]. Pro-Dem never leave. Fatalistic, boss of the checkpoint. "Remember my name if I die here." Protesters are shuttling up huge bags of rocks, moving them using four people.

9:07PM Reuters, some live fair. Unclear source.

9:15PM Rep: Shooting but source unclear. Can't see where it comes from, echo off building, north toward the gun. Tracers in the sky. Now a lull. Tank moving over the bridge. Anch: Here we are, at the darkest time of night. Are we seeing gunfire into crowd of unarmed civilians? Smoke flowing up from moving tank past Reuters camera. Reuters: "One protester killed in shooting in Cairo's Tahrir Square: Al Arabiya TV" Barrage from the north. Anch: From behind pro-Mub lines? Rep: [does not answer]

Crawlers: Reports that pro-Mub supporters have opened fire on protesters.

9:31PM Dawn approaching. Protesters: Nine entrances to square, we are trying to secure them all.

9:45PM Intermittent gunfire. [Reminds me of Maus, evil cats playing.] Protester: Tanks leaving square steadily.

9:50PM Two shots. Witness in TS, Greek photojournalist: Latest development, protesters, game changers, have taken the 6 of October overpass. Lifted morale of people! Anch: Despite gunfire [this is voyeuristic! I don't like this announcer.] Int: Extraordinary development that demonstrators hurling stones six hours ago, have now pushed forward to the bridge. Creates an opening out of the square! Or in: They hope for reinforcements. Int: It's a fascinating issue, spoken to organizers, could not have happened before 2011, two years ago, not ready, a process that took six years to come together. You see people organically shift from entrance to entrance. Anch: You're a photojournalist, you have experience... Int: This has been looking a lot more like ... Thought it was going to be a Lebanese style waiting game, in last 24 hours changed, Mub's carrot, not run for election, and today the stick. Both sides feel this is a game they cannot afford to lose.

10:01PM Gunshots. People now running from the bridge. Tracers in the air. Anch: You just got off the Sixth of October Bridge. Int: Yes. [Frustrating, I can't hear what he is saying at all. Goddammit, the story is not the gunfire, the story is the bridge! I don't care if it's a "moving" account! OK now the announcer gets back to that.] Now the protesters are beating the steel fence again, a sign of defiance. [NOTE: Tank also moved toward protesters on bridge. And a tank in the midst of pro-Mub protesters fired into the air at a crucial moment, frightening the pro-Mub. Hmm.] Anch: There it is again! [gunfire] No confirmation on 6 killed, we are getting international reaction. Int: More gunfire, running away. Anch: Repeating an interviewee: "How can we trust an administration, that is shooting at us?" "Fatima, who do you think is shooting at you?" [I think this anchor is ghoulish, and I want the bridge story confirmed, and gearing up for a Tienanman story is not my agenda, as is all-too-obviously for this anchor. Snarl. Te morituri salutamus is all very well, but I'd prefer to say it myself, and not have it said for me. --lambert]

10:22PM Hillary calls Sul, condemns violence as "shocking development." Anch: Sounds as if the scene has been set for more aggressive. Protester: The Army made it very clear they are here to maintain police. Difficult for them to step in. Anch: Army not acting at all, seems remarkable. Could this have happened Army knowledge? Int: A lot of unlicensed guns around, since police stations were looted. Int: People putting up barricades in a very organized way. Rocks in the middle, bottles filled. Did not seem like it was something they hadn't prepared for. All the neighborhood people say they know the pro-Mub thugs: Local policeman.

10:38PM Anch: Reassured by Clinton? Protester: No, a week ago she said Mub was stable.

Crawler: Clinton: Transition must happen "now." [Not sure what diplospeak was, though.]

Crawler: Men in balaclavas surround the square. [Hmm. All nine entrances?] No further confirmation.

Interesting:

Tommy Evans in Tahrir reports drumbeats used to signal which entrances need reinforcements. Loudspeakers call for more ambulances.

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AJ evanchill:

I am going to be busy filing and uploading, but suffice to say tonight was the Battle of Tahrir, and the protesters won. Cairo is changed.

11:05PM Anch: The Molotov cocktails were made somewhere! How could the govt not have known?

11:20PM Anch: Cold blue light of dawn.

11:21PM Anch: Every night, we say, everything has changed. Int: The fear here for many people, what is next. 40 minutes from the lifting of the curfew. Worried that means more pro-Mub head toward TS. Have said all the way through, the pro-Mub, will confront until they all go home. Anch: Clinton phones Sul, "shocking," after many days of peaceful demonstrations... Hello? Hello? Lost line with reporter...

11:50PM Anchor, saying, in various ways, how amazing it is that there's live gunfire, directed against civilians, in this "cosmopolitan" city, the capital of Egypt. Int: "This army will do nothing."

11:55PM Anchor Mood shift? Int, Jason I, Greek news photographer. Tension gone down, compared to night hours. Groups of demonstrators catching collaborators, gather around them, punch and hit. 160 alleged collaborators held. Anch: Difficult circumstances. Was this the real day of rage? Int: Dying campfires, smoke into sky. Now 7:00AM in E.

11:58PM Top of the hour: Clinton, those responsible must be held accountable. [Well, that would be Mub, yes? --lambert] Smoke drifting over the heads of the demonstrators. Makeshift barriers that the protesters have put up against pro-Mub. This battle a "game changing situation." Int: Everybody knew it had been relatively peaceful. Now the tone of this conversation has changed. Most believe there is state backing behind this. By and large the majority of the violent believed to be from the state. Dramatic increase of petrol bombs, guns. Protesters barricaded themselves in. It will be interesting to see what the pro-Mub will come back with. We've some protesters have secured some rooftops. Protesters say we've won our battle, we've secured our block. Could political maneuvering solve this? Wait and see.

Int: You had pro-Mub storming the square, followed by men on horseback and camels, with clubs and knives and the protesters fighting with whatever they could get their hands on. Busloads of pro-Mub supporters. Suddenly they appear. The true picture certainly was that we had E turning to Es, and many of those caught and handed over to the authorities had govt IDs.

Int: Now several tanks around the square. Doing nothing. Anch: Still.

12:14AM Anch: Are you worried about more violence today? Protester: What?!? I can barely hear you. Anch: Are you afraid? Protester: Of course I'm afraid! [I would give my eye-teeth for a five minute tour of the square showing the tactical situation as opposed to all the friggin fee-fees. Can we have some reporting? --lambert] [Shouting in background.]

12:29AM [Two images of tanks, both with fuel trucks nearby. If tanks have to be refueled every day, that is a very interesting data point. --lambert]

1:10AM [I hear nothing that says that the pro-Mub forces will attack again, but if they're not going to, then what is Mub's next move? What other moves does he have? --lambert]

1:12AM Protester: Half have bandages, but everyone is smiling. [The square reminds me of the last minutes of Woodstock, with Jimi Hendrix playing as the camera pans over devestation. But this is a devestation with a difference, eh? --lambert]

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Pravda:

Administration officials watched the violence unfolding in Cairo on live television along with much of the rest of the world. "A lot of this is totally out of our control," White House Chief of Staff William M. Daley told reporters at a breakfast organized by Bloomberg News. "There's a lack at times of real information, and you've got lots of rumors."

Haw. Just like me.

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1:16AM Protesters: Gunshots had a profound impact. Now people want to see Mub tried. Anch: You would agree events of last night changed mood. Protester: We knew what we were confronting. It was very much a choice. We had to break the police by sacrificing our bodies. Yesterday very cheerful... And now, it's piles of rock and rubble. It looks like the West Bank or Gaza. We see that we continue to determined. Anch: How can you keep up this resistance? Int: I have no idea. I've been an activist for a few years now, and never understood where this comes from [feeling like a Palestian]. I had to pull back old men from throwing rocks. University professors and get them into the center of the strange. When heard gunshot, it's an honor, I envy him, I wanted to offer my life. I don't know what comes next. But I'm willing to die for it. I don't think this is going to stop. Sorry. This is strange, medieval, throwing rocks. Anch: Women an children? Int: People in the middle of the square were not running much risk. Only the children and the very old did not participate. Fifteen hours of continuous fighting, everyone was participating. In the beginning our numbers swelled, as soon as we liberated one entrance to the square, people came to join us. Anch: Protesters had expected security forces, and not mobs. The mobs did not expect the level of resistance in the square. [Oh Jeebus, I hope the next move isn't the security forces. --lambert]

1:29AM Traffic moving.

[The concept of "square" reminds me very much of the 18th Century British "square" -- the battle formation that ultimately defeated Napoleon at Waterloo. The square, was fundamentally defensive. If a square held properly chosen territory (say, just over the crest of a hill), it could defeat any attack, and win on the counter-attack. Interestingly, there was no Wellington in the square last night. Perhaps, as usual, I am a Polyanna. --lambert]

1:29AM Buses, people with sacks getting instructions. [Where?]

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Hah, "nudge theory" shits the bed:

The White House had attempted to nudge Mubarak to the exits, dispatching former U.S. Ambassador Frank Wisner as a special envoy to deliver the message to him. But by Wednesday, Wisner was on his way back to the United States.

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1:38AM Anch: [Incredulous] State TV reports 5 dead and 800 wounded.

[Looking like a few more protestors.]

1:44AM Anch: Will battle shift to rooftops? Iason, Gk photographer: Stay in square and stand ground. But are pushing back pro-Mub almost to edge of Nile. Anch: Atmosphere? Int: A collaborator every minute beaten, but others protect, embrace. Anch: E health minister 5 killed, 836 injuries. Most casualties stones, sticks. 86 still in hospital. Does not attrbute to gunfire. Does that sound right? Int: Sounds correct.

1:50AM Anch: Live picture taking a collaborator to the Army. This keeps happening. Int: Banging on the metal barricade wtih sticks. Two areas of security in the square: First, women and children [doesn't describe second]. Seeing Army action, tanks. Soldiers put on bullet proof vests and helmets. Anch: Is this mob rule? Rep: It certainly looks like it. I think the violence has backfired. Speech generated sympathy, but that has been undermined now. The extent of the motivation of the protesters will be seen today and tomorrow.

2:20PM Metro station turned into a holding cell. 8 held now. Showed me a police ID card. Have set up checkpoints again. Anch: How tell pro-Mub from protester? Int: You can easily tell from the inside of the square. Inside is diverse, [old, young, rich, poor, mean, women] outside is diverse and have weapons. People who are coming from outside who are protestors come with food and blankets. As night fell, the numbers of pro-Mub dropped to a few hundred, indicating earlier pro-Mub did not come out of conviction. Anch: Proportions? Int: 2000 to 4000 now. Many women and children here. No toilets, little water, several people with bloody clothes, have not eaten, difficult and challenging, to say the least. Situation really does have the potential to escalate ten-fold and more.

2:07AM Anch, breaks in: ElB says Mub will be held "personally responsible" of another "massacre" takes place.

2:08AM Anch: How do people organize themselves with no leader? Int: Right now is about survival. We no longer wish to discuss anything with Mub. We wait for an official statement from Sul. Now it is far greater than protest. ElB as much as he has some support, many have no faith. If he was for the oppressed, he would be here! [So, ElB hires a helicopter and lands in the square, with food, medicine, and a Port-o-San, and then stays. What could be simpler? --lambert]

2:15AM AJ, both pro-Mub and protester supporters are heading to the square. Rep: Pro-Mub really are regrouping. Trying to set a tree alight. Pro-Mub also closing over some parts of the city, stopping doctors and others from entering the square. Chant: "We are not leaving! We are not leaving!" Busloads of both pro- and anti-govt supporters entering Cairo. Anch: Seems like no direction... Does it look like somebody's calling the shot? Rep: Looked organized. Captured had police IDs. Seems to be a strategy, though it backfired in Mub's face.

2:23AM Protester: We were very peaceful, non-violent. Now many severely injured. Gunshots all night. Anyone responsible for this must be prosecuted. Anch: What if pro-Mub come back, will you stay? Int: Yes. They are doing a great job of protecting us. We are prepared for a lot of violence. Anch: Food, water? Int: We have food and water. We have blankets. We have a city here. We even have a museum!

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Simon Tisdale, yesterday:

As he tries to reassert his primacy, Mubarak can rely on the conservative Arab states of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia [our friends!!], Libya and Algeria, and on any number of African governments that have no wish to encourage popular revolution. Even old enemy Iran is privately ambivalent on this score.

He can offer negotiations to the opposition and hope to gain advantage from their refusal, so far, to participate. And if all this fails, the regime can always let loose its thugs and hooligans, just to emphasise that without state-imposed order, only chaos, not democracy, reigns. [Which is just what he did. And the protesterts in TS beat his thugs back.]

Mubarak's counter-revolution is still a long shot [and now longer]. Too much has changed in Egypt for it ever to go back the way things were. But today saw the beginning of a new stage in a complex internal struggle whose ultimate outcome remains deeply uncertain.

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2:53AM [Damn. Missed a screen shot of ID after ID. --lambert]