The massive suckitude of the Dartmouth Atlas Project's methodology (and thus its results)

Miami is to Minneapolis as McDonalds is to Le Bec Fin...

yeah, i had to look it up too

Some days it feels like Richard 'Buzz' Cooper and I are the only two people in the whole entire blogosphere [and maybe the whole entire planet] who are trying to skewer the Blair Witch Dartmouth Atlas Project, with the primary difference between us being that he's actually got the chops to do it.

Not to mention that he writes killer blog posts. I'll c&p the McDonalds one in its entirety just because I can:

Similarly Dead, Not Similarly Ill –
Quintesssential Dartmouth Doubletalk

Dartmouth Atlas Frequently Asked Questions:

“How do you ensure some patients were not more severely ill than others?”
“The study only focused on patients who died so we could be sure that patients were similarly ill across hospitals. By definition, the prognosis of all the patients in the cohort was identical – all were dead after the interval of observation. Therefore, variations cannot be explained by differences in the severity of individuals’ illnesses.”

So, let’s see. Dinner is similar at Le Bec Fin and McDonalds because the prognosis is the same – both are gone in a few bites. And out of this comes national health care policy. G-d help us.

Cooper, with more on logic and variations in health care spending:

The notion of “30% waste” has deeper roots in an invalid thread of logic that begins by characterizing regional differences in Medicare spending as “unexplained,” and because differences are “unexplained,” they must be unwarranted, and because they are unwarranted, they must be wasted. Logic dictates that, when differences are unexplained, explanations must be sought. In fact, when that has occurred, variation has been attribltable to differences in the prevalence of disease, patients’ risk factors, patients’ income, community characteristics and even altitude. Moreover, these pervasive and stubborn variations have been found in other developed countries, where health care financing and delivery systems are very different from the US.

Altitude! Whodathunkit? But this is what real scientists do, they actually go looking for explanations for the unexplained.

On to Miami [where I have lived] and Minneapolis [where I have also lived]. Miami is frequently reviled, based on nothing more than the Dartmouth Atlas, as a hotbed of greedy old farts sucking up all the health care and leaving none for the rest of us, and this has to be stopped.

Not so fast, says Cooper:

So how do Minnesota and Florida stack up? Minnesota spends more per capita, not less - 13% more. It’s not a low-cost haven. Minnesota has lower Medicare expenditures but, with fewer uninsured, good benefits plans and generous Medicaid, it spends more overall – and it gets more!

So just why do our old folks cost more than Minnesota's old folks? It's the poverty, stupid:

Although the Dartmouth folks grumble that “single working mothers in Nebraska are footing the bill for gold-plated health care provided to high-income Medicare enrollees in Miami,” it’s Miami’s poor who use the most. So, the message is that poverty is expensive to the health care system, including to Medicare , and like Chicago’s south side, south-Florida has lots of it, while Minneapolis has very little. Miami’s poorer outcomes reflect its burden of poverty and Florida’s overall under-investment in health care.

On the subject of how health care policy affects people in real life, Cooper is one who gets it. He's got more on poverty, and more on regional variations: McAllen vs El Paso [cf Atul Gawande] and Birmingham vs Grand Junction. The entire blog is well worth reading [he's only been blogging for a few months, so it won't take you long] if you're at all into health care policy wonkery.

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splashy9's picture

I was wondering about that

If a person has lived in poverty for their entire life, chances are that here in the US they haven't had decent preventative care, especially if they are childless which means they probably didn't get Medicaid. Therefore, by the time they get on Medicare they have all kinds of problems that either need to be taken care of or have progressed to the end results of not having them dealt with when it would have been easy to prevent them.

Poverty also causes stress, which can lead to many problems. When you are worried all the time about basic things like shelter, food, health care and how you are going to get to work, along with work that stresses you out physically, you are broken down by the time you get to be 65, if you make it that far.

"A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. So is a lot." - Albert Einstein

poverty

you can't afford to go to the doctor

you can't afford to buy healthy food

you can't afford to buy medicine

you may very well live in a neighborhood that's too dangerous to go out and walk around the block

you certainly can't afford to buy gym memberships

you very possibly live in substandard housing, including lead-based paint or asbestos

you very possibly live in a neighborhood near a superfund or other hazardous chemical site

the list goes on and on

and that's a very good point you make about medicaid too.

hard to tell if he's just playing 113-d chess, or if he really believes it, but obama's rhetoric is tilted heavily toward the yes you can 'personal responsibility' yourself up out of poverty.

headdesk headdesk headdesk headdesk headdesk

lambert's picture

I felt that the headline needed to tell the story...

... and so I altered it.

First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi

*i* think their methodology sucks

but their conclusions, and the conclusions that fascinated laypersons are glomming onto, are simplistic at best, and that bothers me even more than sucky methodology.

Much of the data that we've got, or are ever going to get in the near future, will be full of holes and otherwise imperfect, but we're going to need to make some decisions anyway. The ability to identify problems with your data, and with your conclusions, and the ability to ask the right questions, etc -- in short, critical thinking skills -- are more important. The interpretation that everybody who is exactly 2 years away from their appointment with death is exactly as sick as everybody else who is also 2 years away from dying is laughably stupid, but if that kind of intellect is allowed to drive health care policy, then it becomes criminally stupid.

but i don't have access to enough of their data, or enough of their published papers, to say so authoritatively. not to mention that it's been 15 or 20 years since i've done any really sophisticated statistics of any kind, so i'm limited to poking at the edges.

but i do like the new headline.

Hip, great find--and timely: CBS news covered hospital ratings

tonight, using heart attacks and George Washington University Hospital as their example (based on distance to, I guess, CBS's DC office). They found that GWU Hospital scored extremely high on two criteria necessary for good outcomes after heart attacks (forgot first, second was administering aspirin upon arrival), but did badly on the new criteria for greatness and competence, hospital readmissions for cardiac patients.

It was such a mystery; a GWUH administrator said they would have to look at the "system."

Well, gang, the "system" includes poverty in DC, right? That is not being addressed. At all.

The segment willl probably be on video; you might get a kick out of seeing how well the MCM* has made some statistical studies the absolute gold standard in judging medical care.

Amusingly, Katie asked a doctor/analyst whether this meant people should evaluate which hospital they go to for heart attacks. Gang--time is of the very essence of life with heart attacks; do not go 15 minutes further away bcz there's some measurement which says you'd be less likely to be readmitted. I mean, if you don't get care for the heart attack within those precious early minutes, you very well may not get readmitted anywhere. Ever. You'll very possibly be buried or cremated.

But! You may want to pick your hospital based on your ailment! Or bcz you have a doctor you trust and he uses a specific hospital.

Of course, you can do all the studying you want and if your plan doesn't cover that hospital you choose, you're SOL.

Oh, well, Obama says you cherish your parasite...and you just may be required to be insured by whichever parasite you employer can afford.

*MCM--Mainstream Corporate Media

yeah, i just love how

yeah, i just love how transparency is going to save us all.

we'll just publish quality ratings on the web so people can choose the best hospitals! the best doctors! the best medicines! the best insurance plans!

don't get me started on what some of them are using to "measure" "quality" either.

lambert's picture

Read "Title [gag] VI" of "The Preznit's Proposal"...

... which is titled "Transparency and Program Integrity", if you want a good excuse to hurl. It's pure vapor. There's no implementation detail at all.

First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi

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