Two spooky October Surprise posts for ya:

Phoenix Woman:

About Iran: General Wesley Clark said that Bush is painting himself into a corner on Iran. The General feels that the only chance to stop a strike on Iran is the election of a Democratic Congress in November, assuming BushCo does not manage to start dropping the bombs before the election. The only good news about Iran is that Clark feels there are clear divisions in the Administration, with Rice showing some misgivings about striking, and CheneyCo wanting war with Iran ASAP. The bad news is that with RiceCo wavering, and CheneyCo chomping at the bit, a strike is simply a matter of "when, not if."

Clark feels the best way to deal with Iran is to engage, not to isolate. He thinks a diplomatic campaign with democratic ideas, Iranian ex-pats, and "blue jeans" is more likely to have a positive impact than a strafing run with bunker-busters. We have to win back Congress to have a chance at success.

Clark thinks a strike on Iran will be a two week bombing, typical of the start to any modern conflict, targeting power, command and control, mobility, etc. Since our ground forces are stretched too thin to invade, there will probably be some special forces teams sent in, but not much else on the ground. Clark does not think BushCo has the guts or political clout to start the draft at this time. Interestingly, Clark is not anti-draft. He feels there is a time and place for the draft, and when the American public is in agreement about that time and place, America will use the draft again. But Iran will not be that time and place.

Sean-Paul:

I'm not sure what to make of this, as I haven't had enough time to really think about it, but here it is, both from Stratfor:
U.S. President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice refused to meet with Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, Kuwaiti daily Al-Watan, which is owned by a member of the ruling Sabah family, reported Sept. 25. The pro-government daily said "a significant change in relations has taken place," but offered no details on the report's source. Further investigation suggests the source was "someone high up" in the Qatari government, and the owner of the paper is reportedly close to the emir. There also are suggestions that the spat between Washington and Doha has escalated to the point that the United States is considering moving its Selliya military base out of Qatar. Qatar has recently been having trouble with Saudi Arabia, particularly over the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, and Doha has close ties to Tehran. Though this report has not been confirmed, it could signal a significant shift in U.S. presence in the region; finding more information is a priority.
And this:
Senior leaders in the Israeli and Saudi governments allegedly held a secret meeting a little over a week ago. There are some suggestions that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert met with Saudi King Abdullah (which Olmert has denied) or Prince Bandar bin Sultan, secretary-general of the Saudi National Security Council. The story has been all over the Israeli press, but Saudi Arabia denies any meeting took place. Given the rising Iranian ambitions in the region, we have anticipated shifts by Gulf states to contain the rising Iranian tide. The Saudi-Israeli contacts and Egypt's initiative to restart its civilian nuclear program appear to be early signs of the way in which the Arab states are maneuvering to constrain Iran. It will be important to watch these developments, particularly in light of an apparent shift in the other direction in relations between the United States and Qatar.

If these motherfuckers spoil my birthday party I'll shed some blood when I get to DC, I swear.

and, yes, Fatherland Security overseers, that's sarcasm.