
In my last post I introduced Warren Mosler's notion of “deadly innocent frauds,” (difs) and discussed the idea of fiat monetary systems and its implications for the first dif: “in order to spend money, the Government must first raise it through taxation, or borrow it.” In fiat monetary systems, that idea is false, which is why it is a dif. The true principle instead is: “Government Spending is NOT operationally limited or in any way constrained by taxing or borrowing.” In the course of discussing the first dif, I emphasized its role as a belief underlying the current orientation of the Obama Administration toward planning for deficit reduction and deficit neutrality. Concerns that are wholly inappropriate, foolhardy, and even suicidal, in view of all we need to do to reinvent America, and the fact that we have a fiat monetary system. In this installment I'll move on to Mosler's other difs and discuss their political and economic implications.
Mosler's second dif is: “With Government Deficits we are leaving our debt burden to our children.” This, of course, has been a scary common sense belief that those who don't want to solve social problems have used forever to persuade people not to implement progressive solutions to their problems. The problem is that in fiat money systems the meaning of deficits is entirely different than in commodity money systems. The deficit is just the annual difference between Government income from transactions with non-Governmental entities and Government spending in such transactions. Most Government income comes from tax collections, so generally speaking there is little or no deficit when tax collections match Government expenditures. In commodity money systems, when income falls short of expenditures, we have a deficit tied to a commodity, and when the deficit accumulates year after year we have a national debt also tied to a commodity. To finance the debt, Governments in such systems must raise taxes to increase income, or borrow money to finance expenditures through debt. If they borrow money, however, the debt can only be paid back through increased revenue collections at some future time, or by more borrowing to pay debt obligations. But, in fiat monetary systems, the situation is different. When Government expenditures exceed revenues in those systems, a deficit doesn't have to be reduced by increased tax revenues, or other transactional income, nor does it have to financed by borrowing. Instead, since money isn't limited by its relationship to a material commodity, the money necessary to make Government expenditures can just be created at will by the Government. It need not be the product of either increased taxes or debt financing, as it must be in commodity systems.
The significance of this idea, which is just the counterpoint to the first dif, that “Government Spending is NOT operationally limited or in any way constrained by taxing or borrowing,” is that whatever Government deficits we leave to our children also need not be repaid by them through either further borrowing, or increased taxation. These deficits, just like our own can be financed by our children and grandchildren by creating whatever money they need to finance them. Of course, if they want to reduce their well-being, they can raise taxes or borrow money to handle those deficits. But what they do, and the precise size the burden they choose to assume is up to them and has nothing to do with us, so long they retain our fiat monetary system.
Warren Mosler expresses the counterpoint to the second dif in this way:
"Collectively, in real terms, there is no such burden. Debt or no debt, our children get to consume whatever they can produce."
That is, unless they choose not to produce it, because they raise taxes and cripple economic productivity, in a vain and misguided attempt to pay down a fiat debt with money they might otherwise use for investment.
As Mosler points out: it is impossible for our children and Grandchildren to send any of the goods and services they produce back into the past to pay down the deficits we incur today. And he also points out that paying off the national debt in a fiat monetary system is merely a matter of accounting. As he says:
"Even briefer - to pay off the national debt the government changes two entries in its own spreadsheet - a number that says how many securities are owned by the private sector is changed down, and another number that says how many $US are being kept at the Fed is changed up. . . ."
In short, folks, there is no debt burden for our children and grandchildren. That there is, is a myth, a fairy tale, a dif, as Mosler terms it. It is not reality, and we ought not to make it reality by believing it and acting accordingly.
The third Mosler dif is: “Government budget deficits take away savings.” And the counterpoint to it is: “Government budget deficits ADD to savings.” Mosler points out that this is just Economics 101, when the Government spends dollars it transfers dollar credits to non-governmental sector entities. That is the nature of such transactions. So it is just an accounting identity, true by definition, that an increase in the Government deficit, increases the dollars in the non-governmental accounts that have received the Government transfer. So, “Government deficits = increased 'monetary savings' for the rest of us. To the penny. This is accounting fact, not theory. . . .” It's also equally true, that Government surpluses = decreased monetary savings for the rest of us. This too, is accounting fact, and not theory.
The relationships between increased deficits and increased savings, and increased surpluses and decreased savings, are important because misunderstanding them, and accepting this third dif, is widespread, and very harmful. Because people believe that Government deficits take away from non-governmental savings and also investment, they also believe that Government deficits must be avoided and that Government surpluses are good. So, this dif reinforces the doctrine that Government programs should be revenue neutral or even produce Governmental savings, a doctrine that if implemented will actually immediately result in reduced non-governmental savings and investment, a deadly effect in recessionary times, when non-governmental savings that may be used for investment are sorely needed. Surpluses, because they detract from nongovernmental savings and investment, can even cause recessions. Our most recent experience of this is with the Clinton surpluses which were followed by the recession in the waning days of the Clinton Administration that greeted George W. Bush when he took office.
Mosler's fourth dif is one that is much in the News right now. It is that “Social Security is broken” and will, one day in the foreseeable future, run out of funding. This claim is used to persuade people to consider the idea that Social Security must be reformed, before the “trust fund” runs out of money. However, the truth is that there is no trust fund. There are only social security accounts and entitlements accompanying these accounts guaranteed by the Federal Government. Whether, or not the “trust fund” runs out of money or not, the Federal Government will still have make payments to those entitled to receive Social Security payments and since Government money is, at bottom, “fiat money,” the counterpoint to this dif is that “Government checks don't bounce,” and that includes Social Security checks.
So, why is everyone so excited about the plight of Social Security? Why are they so sure that we need Social Security and, more broadly, entitlement reform? I think the answer, for people of good will, is their failure to understand the fiat monetary system, how it works, and what really makes money more or less valuable in such a system. The source of value is not money itself. It is the valuable goods and services that are produced by the economy. As long as the economy keeps producing valued goods and services, the fiat money used as a medium of exchange will have value. And as long as it has value, the Government can keep making and spending it to increase economic activity when it flags, and its taxing power and control over interest rates to dampen activity in case demand outstrips supply, and inflation occurs.
The function of Government in an economy with a fiat money system is to maintain economic activity at a level sufficient to produce the valued goods and services citizens want. When the Government doesn't spend enough to do that, it is failing to prevent or end economic downturns. When it spends so much that its spending exceeds the productive capacity of the economy, it is failing to prevent or end inflation. Social Security and other safety net entitlements are one way of ensuring that demand will be high enough to maintain productive capacity. In recession and depression, they have a counter-cyclical function. They benefit the economy much more than they cost it. Entitlement reform that undermines the function of the safety net in keeping demand at a high level, for the sake of cutting Government spending, on the assumption that Government money is somehow limited, is dangerous to the health of the economy. It is a fool's path. It undermines the very mechanisms that help to protect us against depressions. And it does so based on a misunderstanding of our fiat monetary system, and the false belief that the Government can run out of money if we don't reform social security and other entitlements.
The ideas that Government deficits create a debt burden for future generations, take away non-governmental sector saving, and that socials security is broken are all “deadly innocent frauds,” supporting the idea that deficits must be avoided, even if we have to suffer through extreme economic downturns to avoid them. These frauds, like the idea that Government spending is operationally limited by the need to tax and borrow, all serve to reinforce the idea that Government can't do anything about a bad economy without doing more harm than good. The contrapuntal ideas that Government can create money, and is not operationally limited by the need to tax and borrow, there is no debt burden on future generations that limits production or consumption, deficits don't subtract from, but add to non-governmental savings, and Government checks including Social Security checks don't bounce, all reinforce the idea that Government deficit spending is not to be avoided, but, on the contrary is something we can and need to do to avoid the economic and human waste of unnecessary economic recessions and depressions.
Some years ago now, Democrats tried to make the Government the guarantor of full employment. But the drive to do this was blunted by the decline of Keynesian macroeconomics, the new ascendancy of free market ideology, and the call for deficit neutrality. We now see however, that at least four of the arguments against deficit spending are based on deadly innocent frauds whose application is damaging to our economy. In Part Three of this series I'll continue the discussion of Mosler's 7 difs and their implications
(Also posted at the Alllifeisproblemsolving blog where there may be more comments)
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Another very useful analysis
I'm belatedly joining the others who have thanked you for these two, very useful and informative, posts. Great work.
We can't afford not to have single-payer!
Everybody In, Nobody Out!
Thanks 'night. I appreciate it.
I'm one for enhanced Medicare for All too.
Again, fascinating.
I am a practical gal, so I'm having some trouble holding my breath to see where this is all going.
I do look forward to your next posts and your conclusion. :-)
Never vote for people who hate you.
ERA Now!
The Widdershins
Working on Part Three now
Thanks madamab. I'm writing Part Three now. Don't know yet if there will be a Part Four.
will no one rid me of these damned cliffhangers?
not that it matters, since i've got stuff i've got to get done nownownow and will have to let all my reading pile up until this weekend anyway.
Through with the Cliffhangers soon
That's OK. I'll be through with the cliffhangers soon, and back to single posts.
It would be nice if the implications of all this...
... could be applied to some current problem.
Say, global warming and our policy for that?
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Applications of Implications
An obvious implication with respect to hcr, is that Obama's requirement that one had to make the reform deficit neutral is based on these difs. the deficit neutrality requirement is important in making it more acceptable to some to take Medicare for All off the table. The requirement also accounts for the fact that the subsidies and the exchange are postponed for 3 or 4 years and a band-aid period is created. The requirement also hurts any current proposal to make Medicare available to 55 year-olds at the same subsidized rates as apply to those over 65. In shirt, if the difs were not present all kinds of progressive proposals would have seemed more sensible during the hcr debates. And if we bring up hcr again next year, it will be much easier to push it if we don't have to worry about our reforms being deficit neutral.
Yep...
As I asked below, why innocent?
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
on implications
really nice comment from tjfxh at ian's blog on general implications:
Great Quote from Ian
Thank selise, for this great quote from Ian. It's a wonderful statement. We ought to quote it a lot.
not ian, it's from commenter tjfxh
sorry i wasn't clear. the quote is from a commenter, tjfxh, made on ian's blog. tjfxh has read wray's book (the one i'm reading now) and has recently studied up on these matters (way ahead of me). it's heartening to find these ideas spreading,
Quoting it
Thanks, again. We still ought to quote it a lot.
"Fiscal Scolds" is way too limp
We really need a better term for the propagators of these DIFs.
And why are they innocent? It seems to me that considerations of self- and class interest have their place in political economy?
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Another term for "fiscal scolds"
Another term often used is: "deficit mongers." Yet another is "deficit hawks." Here's another: "deficit doomsayers." Also, "deficit chicken littles." Or "deficit chicken hawks."
The frauds are said to be "innocent," because we are assuming that people sincerely believe that they are true. This may be too complimentary. But we really don't know who is using them honestly and who is not. So, to refer to them as other than "innocent" frauds is to call our adversaries "liars." Some of them may be, but if we introduce that label we will distract people from the point that the frauds are untrue, and the counterpoints are true.
None of those get a the "f"
Innocent or no, these are frauds. And much if not most of our system is based on fraud (since we don't make anything, eh?) I want the equivalent of bankster (which is perhaps not what you want). However, "deficitster" doesn't exactly roll off the tongue.
It's a shill, it's the long con, it's....
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Deadly Innocent Fraudster
How about "Deadly Innocent Fraudster," or "difster" for short?
both deficit hawks and deficit doves = deficit terrorists
some bits from bill mitchell (in australia, but still applies):
That blog is why I asked about MMT
And I put it on the blogroll, I think.
I'm asking for provenance, I guess, because just like "The rules no longer apply" [hmmm....] is always a sign of froth on the upside, so alternative monetary theories ("modern" is genius) are froth on the downside, if a downside can be said to have froth.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
blog roll and other link suggestions
i saw you put billy blog on your blog roll - don't know when you did that but thanks!
some more econ suggestions for the blogroll to go with billy blog:
Steve Keen’s Debtwatch
The Center of the Universe (warren mosler's blog, with a new updated draft of his "7 Deadly Innocent Frauds")
Economic Perspectives from Kansas City (wray, black and others associated with UMKC Economics.
other:
new deal 2.0 (it's a blog, but without an active comment section -- more of a compendium of progressive econ posts)
Valance Weekly Research Reports (not a blog, but the best free weekly update of economic data, in chart form no less, that i've found -- from warren mosler)
Levy Economics Institute of Bard College (working papers, not a blog, but current and very very good)
James Galbraith (webpage for links to current essays, interview, talks, etc)
Selise, anyone can add to the Blog Roll
At the top of the page, next to the Corrente chandalier, it should say "Welcome, Selise" Underneat that, it has an option to add a blog roll link
He who will not reason is a bigot; he who cannot is a fool; and he who dares not is a slave.
- Sir William Drummond
i did not know that, thanks...
thanks aeryl, i didn't know that and i guess i feel a little hesitant because i haven't been around long enough to go rearranging someone else's furniture. but if that is the rule, i'll happily add some links, maybe just a couple to start. i'm pretty sure lambert doesn't want me going crazy with my link lists (it could get out of control pretty quickly).
selise, thanks
I already added the ones that you mention. I think it makes sense to add the crème de la crème...
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
lovely lambert!
wow thanks, that looks great! i would just suggest moving billy blog to the econ list (it's prof. william mitchell and he belongs with mosler, wray, keen, et al).
Second
I second selise's motion.
Deficit doves are terrorists?
selise, Not sure I get that one. However, I do think that the whole mindset of whether one is a deficit hawk or a deficit dove is the wrong mindset.
Instead, we ought to have "Government Spending Hawkism," the attitude that whenever Government makes an expenditure, however, it is funded, it will be evaluated based, to the best of our ability to forecast, on the balance of value we think it will produce. That is, on balance it must be expected to result in 1) greater positive value than negative value, and 2) it must not violate our collective moral sense, such as our sense of justice and fairness (to put limits on utilitarianism). That ought to be the standard governing legislative actions.
Using that kind of standard it might be very hard to justify bank bailouts, but much easier to justify investments in ameliorating climate change, building a great educational system, implementing enhanced medicare for All, re-inventing the economy along green lines, and reconstructing the tattered social safety net.
The standard directs us toward real, value and recognizes that economics is the study of how we allocate scarce resources to produce real value, rather than more money.
maybe i don't understand either?
i'm not making up deficit doves -- that's a description that is in current use, and i'm just advocating that they also be considered deficit terrorists because they tend to say that we should aim for a balanced budget in the long term, so while they will advocate for deficits now, they will at the same time argue for "fiscal responsibility" that for them doesn't mean so much a judgment on value, justice or fairness but instead on balancing the budget over the long term.
if balancing the fed budget or decreasing the fed deficit are useless measures of value, justice or fairness then it's wrong to use them to justify economic policies that undermine employment, the environment, health, etc. and that is what deficit doves are willing to do (although only some of the time while deficit hawks do it all the time)
i agree that all spending should be evaluated and judged carefully so that it is spent on the things that matter to us according to our national priorities and public purpose, and not wasted or worse. but that is different than caring what the fed deficit is.
Deficit Doves?
Thanks for clarifying what they are.
"Real values"...
... vs. "unreal values."
The values (both senses) of both financialization and militarization being "unreal." Just a rhetorical stance, here, no deep theory.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
Real values
The term is rhetorical. Strictly speaking, anything can be intrinsically valued, and in that sense can be a "real value." The valence of the value can be negative or positive. Some things however, have very little intrinsic value, though they may have very high extrinsic value. Money is like that. It's an instrument for buying the goods and services we value more fundamentally.
That was probably more then you wanted to know.
not more than i wanted to know
... just more than i understand. will have to think on it. thanks!
decline of Keynesian macroeconomics
here's what bill mitchell said about keynesian economics (from the may interview with randall wray, my very rough transcription)::
keyensian macroeconomist describes, i think, some one like paul krugman. that's why i'm a little leary of describing the situation as the "decline of Keynesian macroeconomics" -- that's missing the point of what has changed in our monetary system since we went off the gold standard about 40 years ago. also keynes himself rejected "keynesian" econ. so, the economics of keynes (the person and the ideology) is no longer applicable for our current situation -- although as far as i can tell keynes' work (the person) is important in much of pk economic thought.
disclaimer repeat: newbie alert, still on the steep part of the learning curve here.
Thank you, selise
I played whack-a-mole on the bailouts, but other than coming to the conclusion it was outright looting by a very few people, I had and have no grand unified theory. So these investigations are very helpful.
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
whack-a-mole
i was playing whack-a-mole last year too. this year has been an attempt to learn something coherent about what is going on macro econ wise. (sadly wasted way too much time on stuff that makes no sense).
kind like my response to 911. geek alert: my primary coping strategy is an attempt to understand.
and i should add a warning, although i've become convinced this is where the action is macro wise, there is no alternative orthodoxy to replace the current orthodoxy. it's more like an area of research/study with some consistent basis (accounting stock flow identities, the nature of money, etc), but lots more that is unknown or debated.
sorta on topic, i posted these bits from the intro to steve keen’s book, “debunking economics” over at NC awhile ago (typos mine):
not an intellectual vacuum. but not a grand unified theory either.
"Rainfall economists"
Since:
1. We would be neither saltwater nor freshwater economists.
2. Rainfall implies a cycle in a way that the other two don't;
3. "A hard rain's gonna fall...."
Feel free to propagate...
NOTE I'm passing that link along to you as a resource; so far as I know, there was no other political blog that covered the bailouts than Corrente; and if there was an econoblog that covered this in near-real time with several thousand posts, Lehman to inaugural, I missed it, and they would have offered no political context. So...
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi
thanks for the link
i haven't read your posts from that time and look forward to taking a look. i did try to follow events in real time (even live blogged the final house bailout vote in the comments at fdl). but it was confusing (as well as depressing). mostly just watched lots of cspan.
p.s. like the rain.....
Keynes and fiat money
I have a funny feeling about this. I'm not a keynesian economist, or really any kind of economist by training. But I've always had an affinity for Keynesian economics and I could swear that Mosler's work is very Keynesian in spirit. I find it completely compatible with my Keynesian outlook, and have no trouble at all shifting to the fiat money perspective.
i think it helps not to be an economist
less indoctrination to overcome. or maybe it's something else, it's been weird to see people's reaction to these ideas (it was mostly downright hostile reactions to marshall's and rob's guest posts at naked captitalism, even by people who claim to be keynesian and say good things about minsky), while only a few others approached it with curiousity. i was really surprised and disappointed, but i've read that's pretty common. maybe too much of a paradigm shift? you know about these kinds of things i think?
anyway, it has been painful to watch krugman attempt to struggle with some of this stuff (especially for me his talk on minsky at the lse). and sometimes his nyt posts will be dissected by the folks at kansas and mosler and mitchell.
from what i've read of some of the pk's they consider themselves the true intellectual inheritors of keynes and have special distain for things like hick's model.
here's a bit from the wikipedia entry:
more at the link (i just read it now -- it's short and useful).
don't know if any of the rambling above is helpful. but i've definitely noticed a difference in how pk's talk about the new keynesian's like krugman (who call themselves keynesian) and themselves.