[NOTE: You could also post cute pictures of puppies for Leah. That seems to be the only thing that will induce her to post.]
[UPDATE Welcome, Cheetopians! If only Obama were a real progressive!]
This one has me really worried, because before NH, OH/TX, and PA I felt doomstruck and hopeless and depressed, and Hillary won them*.
So, now I'm feeling pretty good, and that gives me that old "It's quiet. Too quiet" feeling. It's bad if I feel good, so I'm going to be biting my nails and chewing o my hands today.
Let's repeat the expectations:
NC Obama by 15 (He's been leading by 20, so let's spot him 5. The more people see of him the more they like him.)
IN Obama by 5 (It's next door to his home state, which is the only other big state he's won, and the media markets overlap.)
At this point, what Obama needs to do is close the deal with the voters. So, if he doesn't meet those numbers in both states, he loses. He can't keep bleeding support and hope to be nominated, because anyone can see where the trendlines go.
Oh, and I remember wondering what scandal #3 would be. The OFB
were rolling them out last week -- first, the ginned up, fake WVWV wankfest, second, the doctored "War Room" video, both being assiduously propagated by our tribunes of the people in the fauxgressive blogosphere.
But I kept waiting for scandal #3... And it just dawned on me today! The Boiz think that the gas tax holiday is that scandal. They are so out of touch. And no matter what happens in either state, the Bullshit Class will claim that Obama wins, and that the gas tax was the deciding factor. Bet the rent.
NOTE Except for the TX caucus votes, for which, IIRC, the Hillary campaign has the affidavits stashed away, for use if necessary.
- lambert's blog
- Login or register to post comments



Front page

Comments
It IS the Gas Tax, Lambert
According to NPR it's the issue that stopped the Wright Controversy. It turns out Hillary's Stupid and no one noticed before.
it's the gun flyer
You saw the HRC mailers with a gun message, but it was a $2500 German hunting rifle that the graphic designer mirrored the image to show a left handed bolt.
LB, what do you mean a fake WVWV??? I've looked pretty closely into most election ratfuckery and this WVWV stuff is at the top of even Rovian level dirty tricks. They repeated this same robocall in OH and other states as well as NC.
When you've got a WVWV board member AND Obama supporter...
... saying it's fake, I tend to believe them, especially as opposed to unlinked assertions by OFB
types.
Nice one on the gun thing. Never hire anybody from the "Creative Class," eh? Can't trust 'em.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Kind of offended
LB,
I really am not sure if you just haven't seen the background on this robocall stuff or you are saying it is all OFB
ginned up. I'm really kind of disappointed.
Go read the facts in the NAACP complaint
and they tried this in Ohio in 2007 as well.
Do I need to point you to NH & Tobin as to how this is normal procedure for the GOP, and apparently now the Dems.
Oh please
Just stop repeating the NH stuff, intranets. It didn't stick then, so why are you trying to make it stick now? Wait, don't answer.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
wha?
I don't mean NH primary.. I mean convicted of phone jamming in NH 2002 by GOP and sent to prison stuff. That's why I included Tobin. There are other proven ties to robocalls and Delay and other tricksters.
What has Obama said that would close the deal
What has Obama said in the last month that would draw undecided voters to him? Is it his exhaustion, his boredom, his disappointment? Lately he's run an anti-campaign that almost seems designed to repel people.
I'm not saying it will -- He's got a huge Label that says EXCITING pinned to his back. And that seems to be enough for some people.
But is it ENOUGH?
That's why I'm confused. Hillary keeps coming up with more ideas. And she's far from exhausted, bored or disappointed.
Isn't that closer to what we want in a leader?
the gun flyer? hahaha!
Good scandal! No one's ever even heard of it. I like that! Bet it will keep people from voting for her in droves.
Lambert -- me too. I can't stand the suspense. I was volunteering in Phila for the last primary though, so I could feel a sense of momentum and excitement building up to election day and we were so busy. It felt great. Today not so much. Hopefully it's just bc I'm far away from the real action. I wonder how the volunteers in IN and NC are feeling things today.
Katiebird, it IS confusing, except I'm not confused anymore. At this point I say it comes down to the misogyny. She is a patently more qualified, experienced, intelligent, competent, seasoned, and exciting political figure than he is, AND her presence in the race is equally as historic as his. SO, it's woman-hatred plain and simple at this point. That's my story and I'm sticking with it.
NOTE Except for the TX
NOTE Except for the TX caucus votes, for which, IIRC, the Hillary campaign has the affidavits stashed away, for use if necessary.
I suspect she has a lot more than just TX up her sleeve -- that's her campaign went back and took affidavits from people in the Super Tuesday and 'week after' caucus states as well....
it turns out that there were a lot of complaints about the caucuses well before Texas, but they got almost no coverage. I'd not be surprised to find that Clinton can 'go nuclear', and demand that a whole bunch of red state caucus delegations not be seated because the states did not properly enforce their own rules -- those rules had to be approved by the DNC, and failure to abide by those rules can be used in a credentials committee challenge.
*********
re: the gun flyer...
if you had any proof about how completely out-of-touch the media and Obama supporters are, you need look no further than the gun-flyer controversy. People are obsessing over the fact that a graphic designer reversed a photo image, and ignoring what the flyer is saying... that Obama wanted to make handgun illegal in Illinois.
(and if you don't think that the media is in the bag for Obama, the "great lakes" gaffe is a far dumber mistake than reversing a photo, but no one is mentioning that....)
Well, patriarchy is the world's most popular ideology...
as Shakespeare's Sister IIRC says, so it's smart of Obama to go with that. It's all part of the process...
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Josh Marshall is Lekkin' Up
Around racial issues. Again. The only good reason for people not to vote for Obama is their loathsome racism, unlike swell folks like, say, Josh Marshall. It couldn't possibly have something to do with the fact that Obama hasn't said anything new in months and comes across like he stopped caring long, long ago. He's already in Vegas Revue mode, endlessly replaying a catalog of old hits.
See, they care about an image on the flyer
because that's "creative" and they're all about the meta.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
patriarchy's popular, true
But only for about half the people. The other half aren't too happy with it. http://www.xist.org/earth/pop_gender.aspx
Although I agree with your sentiment.
Twisty's pretty good at pointing that out as well.
http://blog.iblamethepatriarchy.com/
Corrente, Shakesville, Echidne, and Twisty are the only blogs I have bookmarked these days.
I have three daughters. In this election the political really is personal.
prayerful equation
in n.c., a slightly reduced turnout by blacks +
a slightly higher than expected turnout by whites =
a clinton victory in n.c.
this is just a prayer, not a prediction. but i don't think it impossible by any means.
if it comes to pass, give the rev and the big dog a lot of credit.
gardening is the best way to pass time, better than nail-biting for sure.
Around racial issues.
Around racial issues. Again. The only good reason for people not to vote for Obama is their loathsome racism, unlike swell folks like, say, Josh Marshall.
why does WKJM
just hand the keys to the White House to McCain now?
I mean, if you want to alienate Clinton voters, falsely accuse them of racism.
Not to mention the fact that every time someone like WKJM
talks about the 'alienating black voters if Obama doesn't get the nomination' the entire GOP gets a tingle up their leg, because every non-black voter who isn't solidly in the Obama camp in the country thinks "well, i guess they care about black voters more than me".
Not to mention the fact that Obama's whole "electability" argumnet -- all those states where he is supposedly 'more competitive' than Clinton, are only more competitive because women stick with the Dem against McCain, and men switch to McCain.
LB, I know it's my Irish guilt kicking in
but I feel the same way, something is wrong, it's too quiet and..happy...we don't deserve a win!
BTW, found a great NYT piece by Jodi Kantor over at TaylorMarsh, “With Right Props and Stops, Clinton Turns Into Working Class Hero ”
This piece highlights a subtle but critical point about HRC, even though she doesn’t live the working class life, doesn’t pump her own gas, doesn’t make her own coffee and hasn’t had to worry about a paycheck for years - she gets it. She understands what people are going through and connects with them. That’s the difference between being “elite” and not. Elite is a mindset not a balance sheet.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/us/pol...
I love this job!
Will It Be A Federal Holiday?
But I kept waiting for scandal #3… And it just dawned on me today! The Boiz think that the gas tax holiday is that scandal. They are so out of touch. And no matter what happens in either state, the Bullshit Class will claim that Obama wins, and that the gas tax was the deciding factor. Bet the rent.
I certainly don't think the Gas Tax Holiday is a scandal but I don't think it's a good idea.
First and foremost, it will never happen. Not a chance in hell. Second, even if it did happen, it won't help and may even exacerbate the problem (increase in quantity demanded --> higher prices) and we will end up paying anyway. The oil companies will just pass on the cost to us. Third, it's just pandering and it seems like an act of desperation.
All that said, I think it will work for Hillary tonight. I have no way of knowing how much it will help her, but if I was guessing I would say perhaps a point or so in each state.
It's a smart move politically but a non-starter in Congress and economically inconsequential at best.
But, what do I know? As a federal employee, I'm hoping that if it's enacted that I get the day off. ; )
But what about Obama's mad negotiation skillz??
To the Unity
Pony
, there is and can be no DOA.
Anyhow, the gas tax holiday works. Doesn't save the world, but might help the people to whom a few bucks mean a lot. Of course, "those people" are racists, so no bailouts for them, not even tiny ones!
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Puppies!!
I'm just feelin' too good today, nothin' can get me down. IN and NC are looking good, the Celtics are playing the Cavs tonight, game 1 and the suns out. Stop me, I'm flying.
http://www.familiesonlinemagazine.com/pe...
I love this job!
I love this job!
The gas tax has huge upside for HRC and BO is jealous...
Well, poopies on him. Sorry, I told you I was happy.
I love this job!
Leah!
Lassie says it is time to come home!
Color me crazy but I'll take money over Hopange
...any day.
I love this job!
I Also Feel Worried
The polls look too good to be true. There's got to be some ratfucking going on somewhere today either by Obama folks or the GOP.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
Thanks for the link elixir
That is a great article. Reminds me of how few flattering pieces about Clinton appear in the MSM, ever. No snark, no sexism, and no mention of Obama.
Hillary comes across as a serious McCain opponent in the fall.
For a depressingly sexist and tiredly pandering article from my neck of the woods, read this from the Boston Herald. or don't. Altho the comments smacking down the writer are pretty good.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion...
I think I'll send it along to Melissa at Shakesville.
Obama as Opportunist
http://anglachelg.blogspot.com/
Go, read, enjoy.
Tdraicer
Lambert: You've been noticed
Even Sadly No has a story. Apparently they think you were exaggerating or something.
Balloon Juice has their Gas Tax wankfest going full steam, with the 2-3 new threads on the subject every day.
------------------------------------------------
Real ponies don't oink- Patrick McManus
x
------------------------------------------------
“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
Stuck pigs squeal
That's why they're going so nuts. I left them a pleasant welcoming message. Feel free to go over tere and straighten anything out that needs it...
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
I expect Sen Clinton loses ground today
Despite whatever the expectations are, the number of uncomitted delegates shrinks today.
If Sen Clinton gets fewer delegates than Sen Obama today, she loses ground that becomes even harder to make up. This will require her to have an even bigger lopsided victory among the superdelegates at the convention.
There's a saying that the perfect America's Cup boat would fall apart and sink right after crossing the finish line of the last race -- if it's built any stronger, it gives up speed because of weight. Unfortunately for us, it looks like IACC Obama is going to fall apart just after crossing the finish line in the Louis Vuitton Cup (challenger series).
Sadly WTF?
Has it really come to this? Is the desperation of Lambert to defend Hillary’s Roman gas tax holiday as part of her increasingly scattershot campaign strategy really so acute? This let-them-eat-Ramen stuff is normally Chicagoboyz territory. If the great distinction between Clinton and Obama is the latter’s unwillingness to let us all have a few extra syrup sandwiches this summer … well, really. I’m at a loss for words. But then I am a bit parched, no thanks to Barack Obama and his elitist no-free-sip-of-Mountain-Dew-every-other-month policy. Fucking robber baron.
http://www.sadlyno.com/archives/9391.html
"Let them eat wank"
------------------------------------------------
Real ponies don't oink- Patrick McManus
x
------------------------------------------------
“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
Hey, Murphy, Marjorie Eagan sounds like she's morphing...
over to the light, HRC. I try not to read from the Herald, it makes my eyes water but this is a good one. BTW, who the #@%* said Pantsuits (and I do employ the proper noun usage)are not de riguer. Personally, I'm stocking up on them and as soon as Hillary wins the nomination I'm wearing them every day. Yeah, I'll provide photos, that's how committed I am.
I love this job!
Supers
>If Sen Clinton gets fewer delegates than Sen Obama today, she loses ground that becomes even harder to make up. This will require her to have an even bigger lopsided victory among the superdelegates at the convention.
I don't think that is a concern. Either the Supers are going to come over to Hillary in large numbers because they recognize Obama is damaged goods, or they are going to recognize Obama is damaged goods and not come over to Hillary because they don't care. Either way, the exact pledged delegate count won't really matter.
Tdraicer
Absentee/Early Voter Info for NC
Via Pollster, under the Voting Rights Act of 1965, North Carolina is one of eleven states that has to track voters by race and other demos. You can download demo info on early voters with this application - here. It includes race, sex, Congressional district. What it doesn't tell you is who the person voted for (obviously) or whether the turnout for early voting will hold for election day. As of May 3, early voters were about 40% African American and 60% women.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
Did somebody kidnap Sadly No?
"Syrup sandwiches"?
How is that even possible?
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
italics
someone didn't close their italics tag, the rest of the site is in intalics
The Obama Tell
You know its not a good day if their are cries of "voter irregularities". If you hear about those fairies (I only call them fairies because obama and his supporters have made a mockery of legitimate voter fraud problems) then you know numbers aren't looking as good as Obama's camp would like. I'll be nervous if an hour before we haven't heard about any irregularities. (This includes the WVWV issue resurfacing.)
The gas tax wankfest
is truly bizarre.
I am inclined to agree that the proposed saving won't help most people, and the oil companies will be trying hard to find a way to pass any windfall tax on to consumers.
Hillary's proposal is a start. But we need to do more, much more.
The OFB
reaction though, is completely disproportional to the subject. They are posting thread after thread on the topic, all of them freaking out like Hillary proposed outlawing cheetos.
Desperate times in Obamaland
------------------------------------------------
Real ponies don't oink- Patrick McManus
x
------------------------------------------------
“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
me too!
I'm buying pantsuits for everyone in the family! Even the men! oh, wait.
We can share photos. Or have a pantsuits convention!
We can't forget the REAL issue on the gas tax:
Hillary want's the gas tax to be paid for by oil companies "excessive profits". Obama and his supporters want us to pay for it.
Matt Stoller having to fly Southwest instead of Delta on one of his trips just to give the finger to Hillary and them poor folk is no big deal to some. Doing so while kissing the tails of big oil--as Obama did with his vote on the Cheney big oil giveaway, er energy bill--is quite another. The more they dig into their gas tax hysteria, the worse and worse Obama and they will look.
BTW, Lambert, I'm sure they can doctor a video or help spread it through the media to show just how possible it is for a "syrup sandwich".
windfall profits tax
No only did Carter lose the election in 1980, every Democratic member of the House Ways and Means committee lost. Now most people have forgotten that if they ever knew it, but you can best believe that Capitol Hill remembers that.
The same political capital required to pass a windfall profits tax could go to passing a carbon tax, which would pay for single payer health care, pubic transportation, an many other things we need.
I am souring on Clinton.
I know her remark about "obliterating" Iran came in the context of protecting Israel, but considering that Israel has nuclear weapons and Iran doens't, it was way out of line.
Further more, if we do attack Iran (and I don't understand why China would lend us money to do that, but let it go) Hillary would not be in a good position to hold Bush accountable for his crime. She would be in a similar position to Kerry in the 2004 campaign.
As much as I dislike the Unity
Pony
, I am increasingly of the view that he may be the stronger candidate.
Gas Tax Hysterics
Shorter Krugman: WTF
?
Over at Krugman's blog today:
"The gas tax holiday is a real issue, but a small one."
Lather, rinse, repeat.
I'm Almost Prepared
to do a post debunking this
Did Hillary ever use the word 'obliterate' in her answer during the debate?
And if she did, did Obama not copy her answer?
If Iran strikes Israel we strike Iran?
Now we hear that it is Hillary's tone that is troubling? Not what she said but the fucking tone?
Tone
Now we hear that it is Hillary’s tone that is troubling? Not what she said but the fucking tone?
If Presidenting is mostly a matter of knowing just the right words to use... Roget for President!
Yeah, you know, the tone
Like, not Barry-tone!
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Italics?
Looks good to me. Is it still happening after a Refresh?
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Barry-tone!
*rimshot*
Obama was against obliterating Iran
before he was for obliterating Iran.
------------------------------------------------
Real ponies don't oink- Patrick McManus
x
------------------------------------------------
“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
Not Barry-Tone
*groan*
------------------------------------------------
Real ponies don't oink- Patrick McManus
x
------------------------------------------------
“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
DCB, if we're going to inplement pubic transportation..
I'm heading up that committee.
I love this job!
I love this job!
the day is too quiet...
I can hear the clock ticking and the birds singing..and it does feel strange. Meanwhile, my dirty dishes are piling up, along with dirty laundry and I can't do anything--feel catatonic.
What the hell, Hillary supporters are so conditioned to existing in a state of anxiety that happiness is scary. I'm waiting for my sister's report after voting in N.C., then maybe I can function again.
kc
kc...
... feel free to post on that. Any information, at this point!
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi