[Leah, apparently, needs still more pictures of puppies.]
Since the exit polls are starting to come in, here's a new thread.
Old thread is back here.
I still think it's "Quiet, too quiet."
8:23: Error 500 from TalkLeft, so give their servers a break for a bit. Something must have happened...
8:25 Riverdaughter's up. Here's a link to the IN sec of state site.
8:27 CNN: NC projected Obama win based on exit polling, 9% reporting, Obama 63%, Hillary 35%. Hard to see how that can hold up. IN not projected, Hillary 55%, Obama 45%, with 50% of precincts counted, but not, I think, the big cities. Hard to see how that can hold up, too.
8:36 NC board of elections.
8:38 CBS projects Hillary in IN:
Looking ahead to the general election, CBS News early exit polls showed that the majority of voters said that they would not be satisfied if the Democratic candidate they did not support were to become the nominee. Only 36 percent of Clinton voters in Indiana and 34 percent in North Carolina said they would be satisfied with Obama. Forty-one percent of Obama voters in Indiana and 44 percent in North Carolina would be satisfied if Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee.
8:43 TalkLeft still slow.
8:49 CNN IN by county. No results get from South Bend, Gary.
8:51 W.O.R.M.
when Obama called IN a tiebreaker here, Friday, April 11, 2008:
"[OBAMA] You know, Sen. Clinton is more favored in Pennsylvania,” he added, “and I'm right now a little more favored in North Carolina, so Indiana right now may end up being the tiebreaker."
He meant that IN wasn't a tiebreaker, Sunday, April 27, 2008:
NDIANOPLIS, Ind. -- Obama told reporters Sunday that Indiana was important, but declined to call it a "tie-breaker" as he had before.
"I think that Indiana is a very important state," he said during a roughly five-minute impromptu press conference outside a restaurant he visited after attending church. "
Got it. Check. And on a Sunday, too.
8:56 TalkLeft is back. Yay!
8:57 NC Obama 20 point win still holding up.
9:00 Ambinder on the exit polls.
9:02 Of course, none of this is relevant anyhow, because I'm a racist. Old, too. Go, Donna!
9:09 NC counties compltely counted: 5 of 100.
9:12 South Bend now in, Gary not. Hillary's lead narrows, 53/57.
9:21 Nuns lacking ID turned away at polls.
9:25 No real margins. Nobody knows anything! And I certainly wish I knew who the mayor of Gary endorsed. And whether the dead rise there, as in Chicago.
9:28. Apparently, Obama's asking for our votes in his NC acceptance speech. Has he fixed his fake health care plan?
9:51 NC Official count: 55 Barack, 42 Hillary, 33/100 completely reported. That's down to 13...
9:52. Still no Gary. Are the dead rising?
9:55 Gary still hung up. RiverDaughter does back of the envelope calculation, says close Hillary win.
10:03 Times: NC Obama 56 - Hillary 42 = 14, 64% reporting. IN Hillary 52 - Obama 48 = 4, 79% reporting. Still no Gary.
10:11 Times: NC 0 56 - H 42 = 14 (66%). IN H 52 - 0 48 = 4 (82%). Still no Gary!
10:20 Question: Why is the great unifier not even contesting WV and KY? I guess because he doesn't want their vote?
10:28 FWIW MSOBAMA on IN:
Obama’s Marion advantage (67%-33%) won’t likely cut much more into the lead, and there are still portions of Clinton counties still out. But there is still the entire county of Lake (about 400,000 population), which contains Gary, Ind., a 100,000-person town in the Chicago media market with an 84% black population.
Clinton, however, has done very well, 58%-42%, in neighboring Porter County -- also in the Chicago media market. Porter is 95% white. Did the heavy local coverage of Wright have an effect here?
Also out, however, still is Monroe County where Bloomington is. Bloomington is home to Indiana University, somewhere that should be an Obama stronghold. There’s only 24% out in Monroe.
10:29 Times: NC 0 56 - H 42 = 14 (78%). IN H 52 - 0 48 = 4 (856%). Still no Gary! And every other county is in.
10:39 Goddess Jeralyn:
hey are hand counting the absentee ballots in Lake County, Indiana where Gary is situated. The networks are waiting for those results to call the race.
One million votes are in and HIllary leads 52% to 48%. Fox's Britt Hume says they know what is going on they just aren't ready to say so.
Obama's lead in North Carolina right now is 14%.
So.


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Comments
Another puppy for leah
[From MJS...]
++++
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
predictions--
i missed the earlier fun--aww--MSNBC is "too close to call on IN", which is another total crock like PA was.
-- Hillary wins Indiana by more than 10%--maybe more than 12%
-- virtual tie in NC or 2% either way.
-- Depressed Obama turnout in both states --- because they've been telling the world way too loudly that it's "already over" and "he's already won".
NC for Obama,
MSNBC just announced. No numbers tho, and they're still calling IN too close to call.
CNN too on NC.
I hate it
when they call a state with 0% reporting. NC is finally putting out some numbers but it always makes me nervous when elections get called that early
Voter disenfranchisement is a Republican tool. Don't be a Republican tool!
puppy
happiness
RedQueen--
it's so biased too---they called NC for him with 0% but haven't called IN even tho there are more than 30% reported already. "too early to call" they're saying on IN, and not "too close to call" too.
They have to stop basing their calls on exit polls alone--they're not trustworthy at all.
so biased--
Drudge has this up on his front page on top==
NC [4% PRECINCTS]
CLINTON 59,844 33%
*OBAMA 116,896 65%
IN [38% PRECINCTS]
CLINTON 248,247 56%
OBAMA 195,190 44%
and his giant headline is this-- HILLARY'S 'DOUBLE DREAM' DASHED: OBAMA WINS NC
Seriously!
WTF
! We know she's gonna win IN. With 49% reporting she's got 55% of the vote.
Voter disenfranchisement is a Republican tool. Don't be a Republican tool!
It's IN, not IA, OxyCon
IA is Iowa, Indiana is IN.
Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!
He who will not reason is a bigot; he who cannot is a fool; and he who dares not is a slave.
- Sir William Drummond
they did it in PA too--
The exact same delaying in calling it for her, and she was ahead at all points the same way too.
What's even worse--he was supposed to win IN all along.
over and over until recently they had said it was his and that he's won all IL-adjacent states and that it's the kind of Red State he's always won, etc.
They stopped saying that when Wright and PA happened and now they're pretending they never said it, and not mentioning it on tv at all. And i've heard tonight over and over a return to the "Hillary has to quit" stuff again, and Rush Limbaugh over and over instead of Obama's own supposed appeal to Republicans too. (ah--Pat Buchanan just mentioned it for the first time in hours--the hosts haven't at all)
They've swung right back to their old spin for Obama and against her.
They just said "I think we have our candidate back" from Eugene Robinson too--appalling.
exit polls...
remember how much better Obama does among independents...
well, not so much anymore...
Indiana
Independent (23%) Clinton 47% Obama 53%
North Carolina
Independent (20%) Clinton 48% Obama 44% No pref 6%
But the indiana number looks fishy, when you consider this
White Independents (21%) Clinton 52% Obama 48%
Even rounding errors, and giving every other independent vote to Obama, doesn't account for this discrepancy
INDs--
they could vote in both states, but GOP couldn't vote in NC, right?
OBAMA’S ’DOUBLE DREAM’ DASHED: CLINTON WINS IN
Fixed it for ya, Matt.
GOP
well, supposedly republicans couldn't vote in NC, but the exit polls say 5% republican...
bio--
perfect!
(especially bec he was supposed to win both, and she wasn't)
Kittens
we want Leah! we want Leah!
Paul,
i wonder if that's the response when they asked who they've voted for in the past?
Registered Repubs supposedly weren't allowed to vote in NC altho i don't know if they were checking at all--esp if they were using Democratic registers/voting lists ...
Actually, how do they do it in open primaries?
(Here where it's closed, I show my mailer for that primary from the Board of Elections--which has my districts and other local voting info--and then i find the right table & sign in a binder where a scan of my signature and my previous primary attendance/signatures are recorded further up the page. I could go without the mailer and just id, but that's officially from them and already has the pinpointing info.)
Obama on now--
with not one AA face visible behind him...surprise, surprise.
NC GOP votes--NYT--
"... the large number of Republicans looking to vote in the Democratic primary. She said election officials were allowing voters who show up as registered Republicans but claim to be Democrats to cast provisional ballots. Their registration status will then be checked, she said, and if they are Republicans, the ballots will be thrown out. ..."
-- http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/us/pol...
Tonight It Became Clear
The Democratic Party is going to march off a cliff with Obama. His NC win is going to be heralded as him righting the ship, never mind it looks like he lost 60% of the white vote. He's going to be nominated because he gets 90% of a voting bloc that's over-represented in the primaries and makes up on 12% of the U.S. population as a whole.
It doesn't matter how badly he tanks. He's going to limp across the finish line, smearing Clinton all the way.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
indiana turnout
in 2004, Kerry got 162K votes in Marion county (indianapolis).
with 73% of the precincts reporting, there have been 123K votes cast in Marion county.
In St. Josephs (south bend), Kerry got 52.6K. with 100% of precincts reporting 62.3K votes were cast.
Dukakis 08,
it looks like to me. Willie Horton and the Kitty rape question will look like child's play after this season, i bet.
Obama calls for unity after the primaries
and kept it neutral. Praised Clinton, congratulated her on a win in Indiana, and said that the pundits who are saying that the Democratic Party is broken are wrong. He said that regardless of how the nomination is decided:
When it is we have to remember who we are…We are at our best when we summon our fellow citizens to a higher purpose…We will be united in November.
Actually very fair and decent, and about time. Everyone should agree on that goal. Eyes on the prize.
BDBlue
Head. Nail. Bang.
happily immune to all religious indoctrination
- “I do not think that word means what you think it means"
Le Bloc ou le mort!
IN--
i haven't heard much this time about how there are so many more new Dems there like they said about earlier states.
My prize is
to have a party that does more then just give lip service to women, namely, i dunno, *denounces* all the rampant sexism involved with this campaign.
happily immune to all religious indoctrination
- “I do not think that word means what you think it means"
Le Bloc ou le mort!
but he's still all about changing politics,
and "we" have no control over what the GOP and media does--he's not promising to fight their inevitable and coming shit--that's the big problem.
He's not promising to fight or rallying for the upcoming dirty fight at all. He's saying it won't be that way, which is a total fantasy.
at least he finally namedropped Dems instead of Repubs.
he's throwing in much much more "i love this country" and "america" stuff, i notice, too.
how will he unify those Dems who don't want him, let alone everyone else in the country?
If there were a prize for me...
... then he would be asking for my vote on policy.
Empty platitudes. Make-up sex.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Positive Mental Attitude
However it ends, we have another job to do and will have to do it with the tool we have to work with, pun lightly intended.
Neither of these two were on my list to start. One of them will be who we have as the candidate to defeat the VRWC
criminal conspiracy.
There is that saying, to be the change you seek....
Sure, I agree
But it's not a certainty that there will be a place in the Democratic Party to be that change. Not sure when I flipped, but it was somewhere between the dry pussy constituency and the dirty trick with the video. It's like in a hostile takeover, the non-performing divisions -- older people, women, working class -- are unloaded. Then then assets are stripped. I have work to do, but it's hard to do that in a hostile workplace.
Like I said: Vote for him, sure. Period.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Forgive Me If I'm Not In a Very Unifying Mood
Donna Brazile reportedly said that Obama is the new democratic party, one that doesn't need working class whites. Fuck
her and the donkey she rode in on.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
BIO
Tell me your take on this (Forgive me if I missed a prior comment of yours, but I didn't see one in glancing up the thread).
Got a link on that?
I read about the Brazile comment, but I didn't see a transcript, or a YouTube.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Is everyone just buying that this is all but over?
The test was IN. What am I missing here? He was supposed to clean her clock in NC (just as she's supposed to do to him in WV, KY).
You said just what I thought when I thought it, Davidson
I knew Obama would take NC.
And I thought and hoped Hillary would take IN.
What's happening to me is that I'd hoped she'd beat the spread in NC, and from the exit polling, she won't. And the Village
is going nuts. They'll turn the knobs up to 11 on WWTSBQ
. Then we'll have to pull out the TX affidavits -- though it looks like jiggering the NC/IN delegates today of all days was a move to forestall that -- and then it's going to get ugly.
But yes, you're right.
Thanks!
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Brazile--
obviously she doesn't care if the largest growing population groups--Hispanics and old people--are part of it either. And that AAs are shrinking as a proportion of the population as other non-white groups grow.
I Don't Think It's Over
If she holds onto Indiana. She has WVA coming up and KY, two states where she should crush him.
But even before tonight I've become more and more convinced the party wants Obama. They don't care if he's wounded and limping across the finish line.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
Hillary exists to instruct him,
according to Chris Matthews--ugh.
Davidson
Take on what exactly?
Otherwise,I'll run on and on.
It is clear now
The time has come for Obama to accept the VP slot offered and we can have 16 years of democratic rule. What a glorious place it could be. When it is all said and done here in NC , Obama will not win by the 15% he needed to win by for this to actually be a win . He is way to weak to win in the general .
IMHO
AC-n-NC
AH, Lambert about those add-on delegates
Those additional delegates were awarded months ago, IIRC last December. Probably can't find an easy link but that was a treat dangled more than a year ago to try and avoid exactly what happened with FL & MI. The article linked to was just written, but the state-by-state delegate strength was settled long ago.
Ambinder--
"... if the surveys are accurate, the polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels. Nearly six in ten Obama supporters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee -- that's (I believe) the high percentage of Obama supporters who have ever said that.
In both IN and NC, two thirds of Clinton supporters say they'd be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee -- I believe that's the highest number recorded for that question, too.
..." -- http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch...
Thanks, Mr. Unity
! (not)
Expectations...
Well, I said that Obama had to take NC by 15 (now he's at 12) and IN by 5 (he's probably going to lose it).
So, by my own metric, I should rejoice.
However, I'm used to Hillary outperforming everybody else's expectations. The WWTSBQ
stuff is going to be tremendous. I know politics ain't beanbag, but I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
David Gergen is now claiming Hillary had to win
both states. WTF
did that come from?
Oh, my bad. The WWTSBQ
handbook.
------------------------------------------------
Real ponies don't oink- Patrick McManus
x
------------------------------------------------
“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
I Think My Problem
Is I've had a feeling of doom all day. Of course that could be because I'm entering week three of the illness from hell and it's just manifesting myself in buzz killing.
Obama was supposed to win Indiana and even if Clinton squeaks by, that's not where he's supposed to be. And he should easily win NC by 15% given the demos. So none of this is unexpected and all of it would've made me quite happy several weeks ago.
It's just I'm sick of all the Unity
, by which I mean smear campaigns. And I'm sick of WWTSBQ
? And I have no confidence in democratic party leaders or super delegates. None. Zip. I think a lot of them will happily march us of the cliff rather than upset black voters and the "creative class."
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
God, what next?
Lambert: I don't think Clinton has it in her to get ugly and I realize that it seems the Democratic leadership are willing to sell their souls to the devil to get a hold of Obama's donor database, but for the rest of us, I hope Clinton takes it to the floor. I know I'm a paranoid badger and all, but I'm honestly freaking out about the economy and I can't take a president McCain. The Democratic elites will be fine, but not me and so many others. My friend, who is grad school educated, just lost his damn job and he's just trying to get by while his school loans go unpaid. He's not alone. And I worry I'll be next. Don't the Democrats care about our lives, our futures?
BDB: Me, neither, but I also am feeling as if though everything is rigged. I don't get it: the Clintons seemed quite confident these past few days like they knew something was up and now this! I feel like I've been put through an emotional rollercoaster and I'm ready to vomit. Honestly, winning NC doesn't prove a damn thing for Obama and yet people will believe because the media tells them so. And right as Clinton was beating Obama in the national polls and soundly defeating McCain, while Obama flounders, the narrative will turn sharply (Even her supporters at TL and the Confluence felt defeated).
Take on the results
BIO: Just a week or so ago, you had Clinton as having the better odds to be the nominee so I wonder what you think about the race now. Be brutally honest if you have to.
I'll Buck Up Tomorrow, I'm Sure
It's not that I think tonight defeats her. In fact, assuming she holds onto Indiana, she's better off than I thought she'd before Pennsylvania because it looks like NC isn't going to be a 20 point blow out. She's got WVA next which should be an easy win. And then KY and OR.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
she has KY, no?
i thought both of those were supposed to be hers, like both IN and SC were supposed to be his all along.
And WV
Say, I don't think Mr. Unity
is even campaigning there. Fuck
you, Appalachian losers.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi