NC/IN primary thread #2

[Leah, apparently, needs still more pictures of puppies.]

Since the exit polls are starting to come in, here's a new thread.

Old thread is back here.

I still think it's "Quiet, too quiet."

8:23: Error 500 from TalkLeft, so give their servers a break for a bit. Something must have happened...

8:25 Riverdaughter's up. Here's a link to the IN sec of state site.

8:27 CNN: NC projected Obama win based on exit polling, 9% reporting, Obama 63%, Hillary 35%. Hard to see how that can hold up. IN not projected, Hillary 55%, Obama 45%, with 50% of precincts counted, but not, I think, the big cities. Hard to see how that can hold up, too.

8:36 NC board of elections.

8:38 CBS projects Hillary in IN:

Looking ahead to the general election, CBS News early exit polls showed that the majority of voters said that they would not be satisfied if the Democratic candidate they did not support were to become the nominee. Only 36 percent of Clinton voters in Indiana and 34 percent in North Carolina said they would be satisfied with Obama. Forty-one percent of Obama voters in Indiana and 44 percent in North Carolina would be satisfied if Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee.

8:43 TalkLeft still slow.

8:49 CNN IN by county. No results get from South Bend, Gary.

8:51 W.O.R.M. when Obama called IN a tiebreaker here, Friday, April 11, 2008:

"[OBAMA] You know, Sen. Clinton is more favored in Pennsylvania,” he added, “and I'm right now a little more favored in North Carolina, so Indiana right now may end up being the tiebreaker."

He meant that IN wasn't a tiebreaker, Sunday, April 27, 2008:

NDIANOPLIS, Ind. -- Obama told reporters Sunday that Indiana was important, but declined to call it a "tie-breaker" as he had before.

"I think that Indiana is a very important state," he said during a roughly five-minute impromptu press conference outside a restaurant he visited after attending church. "

Got it. Check. And on a Sunday, too.

8:56 TalkLeft is back. Yay!

8:57 NC Obama 20 point win still holding up.

9:00 Ambinder on the exit polls.

9:02 Of course, none of this is relevant anyhow, because I'm a racist. Old, too. Go, Donna!

9:09 NC counties compltely counted: 5 of 100.

9:12 South Bend now in, Gary not. Hillary's lead narrows, 53/57.

9:21 Nuns lacking ID turned away at polls.

9:25 No real margins. Nobody knows anything! And I certainly wish I knew who the mayor of Gary endorsed. And whether the dead rise there, as in Chicago.

9:28. Apparently, Obama's asking for our votes in his NC acceptance speech. Has he fixed his fake health care plan?

9:51 NC Official count: 55 Barack, 42 Hillary, 33/100 completely reported. That's down to 13...

9:52. Still no Gary. Are the dead rising?

9:55 Gary still hung up. RiverDaughter does back of the envelope calculation, says close Hillary win.

10:03 Times: NC Obama 56 - Hillary 42 = 14, 64% reporting. IN Hillary 52 - Obama 48 = 4, 79% reporting. Still no Gary.

10:11 Times: NC 0 56 - H 42 = 14 (66%). IN H 52 - 0 48 = 4 (82%). Still no Gary!

10:20 Question: Why is the great unifier not even contesting WV and KY? I guess because he doesn't want their vote?

10:28 FWIW MSOBAMA on IN:

Obama’s Marion advantage (67%-33%) won’t likely cut much more into the lead, and there are still portions of Clinton counties still out. But there is still the entire county of Lake (about 400,000 population), which contains Gary, Ind., a 100,000-person town in the Chicago media market with an 84% black population.

Clinton, however, has done very well, 58%-42%, in neighboring Porter County -- also in the Chicago media market. Porter is 95% white. Did the heavy local coverage of Wright have an effect here?

Also out, however, still is Monroe County where Bloomington is. Bloomington is home to Indiana University, somewhere that should be an Obama stronghold. There’s only 24% out in Monroe.

10:29 Times: NC 0 56 - H 42 = 14 (78%). IN H 52 - 0 48 = 4 (856%). Still no Gary! And every other county is in.

10:39 Goddess Jeralyn:

hey are hand counting the absentee ballots in Lake County, Indiana where Gary is situated. The networks are waiting for those results to call the race.

One million votes are in and HIllary leads 52% to 48%. Fox's Britt Hume says they know what is going on they just aren't ready to say so.

Obama's lead in North Carolina right now is 14%.

So.

Comments

Those bonus delegates; Thanks, hipparchia

The formula for awarding them was set in December 2006; hard to believe that even someone as politically sophisticated and prescient as Donna Brazile was able to see in Dec '06 that some extra delegates for NC would matter. Fact, nobody knew for sure exactly when any of the primary dates would be clear back in Dec '06.

No reason to bash the DNC over this one; unless, Lambert, you just absolutely need to kick somebody right now and then, by all means, kick the DNC instead of me.

A good night for Hillary Clinton, a good night for the Democratic party, and a good night for America; the broader and longer this discussion, the better for all of us.

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