Oil Futures Over $86/bbl Today: Let's start a pool!

Everybody kick in a score or so Quatloos, pick the date that oil transcends $100/bbl. The winner then ought to be able to afford one tank of gas, at least.

Me? April 1, 2009.

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$100/BARREL

BY APRIL '08!

It's a crapshoot..

One ill-placed hurricane could probably do it next week...

If the headline reads...

Holiday sales numbers disappoint then January gets my bet for C Note barrels...

++++

i think they're gonna save it for Hillary's first 100 days

Me? A Quick Study, But A Slow Learner

Me? A Quick Study, But A Slow Learner

I like Woody's thought, for it is warped

and devious.

However I also think it is wrong. I can't prove it yet because nobody is talking about it, but I don't think this current oily slither is actually oil going up as much as it is the dollar going down. If I could find anybody who markets the stuff in quantity in euros or yuans or somesuch it would help but I don't know the biz well enough to know where to look.

And the next president, who will indeed be a Democrat, will get a pass from serious attack, at least for the first couple of years. Oh, the yammerers and the gasbags will huff and puff of course, and we'll no doubt be giving her or him the full Pelosi treatment ("I feel betrayed, this was supposed to be the great movement that led to improvement" whine whine whine) but the Great Powers won't be backing it up.

Because for chrissakes look at history, they NEED a Democrat to come in and fix things up after they've had the kiddies up too long whacking shit out of everything. They do not, rumor and occasional despairing thought to the contrary, want everything to fall apart and kick us back to the 1870s. A period of "progress" will be allowed, regulation will be reinstituted in some fields at least. Some Big Deal (i.e. New Deal + 70) will be passed, most likely in healthcare; as usual most of the proceeds will go to those who already got, the Insurance interests. We will spend the better part of 09-11 fighting to convert this to single/government payer by peeling off one category at a time.

I don't mean to make this sound too happy-face. A technological society at this level has never been tried before and is so far out of balance on so many levels that the utmost effort from virtually everyone is needed just to keep it from collapse. And representative democracy doesn't have all that long a track record either; I don't think there's ever been such a longstanding effort to revert it to pure oligarchy that didn't collapse into totalitarianism of one stripe or another. Goddess willing we're at the worst point of that curve about now.

For the pool though I'll take oil =>100 USD between Thanksgiving and Christmas 07. But it won't hold there and will fall back into the high 80s/low 90s, barring an exceptionally bad winter in the US and/or Europe.