THOSE were the days.

It IS a horserace still, and that’s news in this race. The Gallup Daily tracking polls since June 29 shows them neck and neck. Obama has a bump from this trip—not his largest lead ever but close: 6 points. He’s only been 3-7 points ahead of McCain for most of the last month—plus or minus 2. “For results based on this sample of 2,653 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.” Gallup’s been interviewing about a 1,000 registered voters a day so the sample size is bigger.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108961/Gallup…
Check out the chart! Over the long term, the Gallup Daily’s been pretty good. If you note, every time Obama goes up—one of the bumps is from Clinton’s endorsement if you notice the date—he also is coming down again. I find it interesting and slightly odd that many people (especially liberals) keep saying Obama’s so “far” ahead—a poll will come out, show him up 8 and people say oh he’s winning—but the lead has usually proved temporary (check out the Gallup chart pretty-straight line)—and is nothing compared to the some 13-25% undecideds anyway.
Remember Kerry? Remember how he was up more than Obama now, like 14 or more in many polls? It’s July now and McCain’s hanging in there. I couldn’t see it last time when Kerry lost (or lost with the help of Bush fans who went to jail but Bush kept it close enough to be stolen), couldn’t understand what had happened and neither could many liberal voters I knew, but it was all happening in real time then too. It doesn’t matter what the press is saying right now: there’s something of an effect but it’s much less than thought—recent proof of this? Hillary Clinton’s treatment by the press and her winning popularity with voters.

Thanks for the opportunity.

It’s all over but the shouting and the screaming and the hundreds of millions of dollars and the giant steaming piles of horseshit.

I’m calling my shot: Obama’s riposte to the October surprise will be an offer of a government of national unity. “Beyond parties,” “deal with current crisis,” and all that. The election isn’t cancelled, but only one name is on the ballot.

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

I’m having a vision.

Obama offers Clinton the VP slot and she accepts. HillBots Hillary enthusiasts go wild with enthusiasm and support from The Eighteen Million zooms to 95%.

Comes the October surprise and Obama kicks Clinton to the curb, because he really doesn’t need her any more. Hillary enthusiasts go wild but Obama doesn’t care, since Replacement Vice President Huckabee Hagel brings enough votes to carry the country anyway.

…McCain shouldn’t bother.

Some kind soul linked a recent article on it here to escape the reg. wall. So for those who say ’it’s over’ here’s more fuel for your fire.

Thing is, nothing about this election cycle has been normal. Historical models would’ve predicted a white male candidate from each party and likely a quicker democratic primary.

As far as electoral college predictions go, I think Cook Political Report’s got a great scorecard. I know it’s dated (June 30) and flies in the face of some of the more recent state polling compilations but it feels right to me and since it’s all about sorcery and clairvoyance at this point, I’m gonna go with the feeling. :) I just don’t buy the whole “redrawing the map” argument and I tend to think that most of the questionable leaners are just that — questionable.

Below are Cook’s toss ups and IMO, where the election battles will likely be fought (with leaners Obama starts with 219 EVs and McCain with 240 EVs):

Colorado (9)
Iowa (7)
Michigan (17)
Nevada (5)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)

The advantage with this map is still Obama’s IMO, but if McCain picks Romney and MI starts to swing his way then I see Obama’s odds going down and McCain’s going up. With MI in McCain’s corner, Obama could conceivably win both OH and PA and still lose so the Romney Effect (if he’s chosen as a running mate) is one to watch for.

I think it’s definitely Obama’s race to lose but I’m not so bold as to predict that it’s over. In fact, that boldness worries me — the kind of arrogance and swagger a lot of democrats are displaying right now can turn things in a number of ways not the least of which is by voters directly punishing it.

PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!