I wrote this in response to a Facebook message from a friend of mine to a few other friends. The backstory is about that silly little “Black-eyed Peas” tune and whether or not cool points win Obama the election. My friend who brought this up is very bright and don’t let that backstory let you think he’s not thinking deeper.

But this is my response.

I don’t know the dynamics of this blog well, and I’m not even sure if I should be posting this here, I’m new. But I think it might be appreciated and it’s informed by previous posts I’ve read here. I would like to add more to this, there is always more, but I think I like what I wrote. Again, I think it will be appreciated.

Here we go:

Cool points do count. I like the new faces. I like the new involvement.

I do not, however, appreciate the tone coming from the new voters concerning Hillary v. Obama. I’m worried about what might happen on a few fronts.

1) If Obama wins the nomination and gets beat in the general, where will these new voters go? Will they give up because their inspiring hero, who can save us all, got beat? Will it make them think that politics and, of course, government, is a fools errand, corrupt to the core? They may be correct, which means something truly ominous. If they’re wrong, and leave, then the bastards win. Those two things may seem to be the same thing, but they’re not. If they’re wrong, they should fight on. If they don’t fight on, that’s ominous too, in a different way.

2) If Obama doesn’t win the nomination then they may react in the same way as they might to a general election loss, only earlier. That’s dangerous, because, again, they could be wrong. If they’re wrong and their disengagement in the process helps McCain win, well we’re in a world of hurt, of course. That could be evidence that they’re right, too. That’s just as ominous. If they’re wrong, it’s just very sad.

3) If Obama wins it all and he doesn’t meet expectations then we’re in trouble and this might be the worst of them all. Because it turns them on to politics but turns them off of policy (which, of course is political, sure). It makes them think that good people can’t get good things done in government. I think we all know that’s not true. And I do not want to see a lot of people disgusted at government anymore. If you think the right-wing are having a field day with Ron Paul types of thought, well, it can get worse.

And we only have it on speculation that Republicans and Independents will vote for him in a general election.

I like Obama a lot. I think he does have his heart in the right place. His policy ideas are decent (to a point). His speech-writers, who apparently learned from Sorensen, which became obvious once I found that out, are top notch.

His delivery is perfect. His charm is unquestionable. His intelligence is astounding.

His campaign worries me. And he is a bit of a cypher. He adds odd little bits of right-wing “dog whistles” to his campaign. He tours with people like Donnie McKlurkin. He insults the Democratic base and the needed fights of the 90s.

And his supporters, often, do not seem to think he has problems. His “uplifting” message inspires unquestioning support.

On top of that, the media seem to be claiming that he is the only one who can beat McCain. Which may or may not be true. They’ll work this narrative if Clinton wins the nomination. But they’ll find a way to go after Obama, no matter what.

His campaign is designed to get votes outside of the Democratic base because the Democratic base (a group I only just barely belong to, along with everyone reading this) will likely support Clinton. It’s a good strategy for him, but it’s very, very dangerous. And it can be more divisive than Clinton could ever be. It splits the Democratic Party in two, with the backing of the usual old-boy network that won’t lose their privileges despite the outcome. And it allows the claims of divisiveness to be extrapolated to the country as a whole. We know that most Americans agree on most policy issues and that they agree with Democratic policies, in the majority. The divisions that are claimed to be there are stoked by the right-wing for their gain.

He’s running a general election campaign for a Democratic nomination. This may be an indictment of the party system, sure. But it is also a serious gamble. He’s using a dangerous strategy, as far as I’m concerned. I see evidence of this danger in the almost cult-like fawning on him by the media and some of his supporters and the absolute visceral hatred coming from all sorts of circles towards his opponent. The fact that his opponent is a woman and some of the hatred is couched in very obvious sexist terms makes this all the worse.

He could be a great president. If he gets elected and is a great president than I suppose my cynicism may be poisonous. If my worries come true, than I’m not a cynic.

I think Clinton can win and I think she’s the better choice, despite her obvious faults. I know her negatives and benefits pretty well. We all do. It’s so much easier to guess what might happen if she is elected, because there is evidence to show her upsides are at least equal to Obama’s and comparing them, I think her positives are better. Her negatives, based on my interpretation of the evidence, don’t seem as bad as his, by a long shot, actually.

This is all speculation, of course.

I suppose it comes down to the “better the devil you know argument”, but after listening to Chelsea Clinton explain, in great detail, what Clinton wants to do (knowing full well that want and can aren’t the same thing) and listening to the snow job that Obama seems to be giving to new voters I don’t think it is that.

Of the two, Clinton is the best choice. If that’s not cool, I don’t give a shit. She may have been the best choice of the whole bunch. I think I would have rathered Clarke or Gore. But that’s not happening.

[/rant]

Eric

PS If I hadn’t spent the last 2 weeks listening to and watching the local old-boy network shilling (in a very subtle and creepy way) for anybody but Hillary, I might have a different opinion. I was raised reading Ms. Magazine and printing the Lincoln NOW newsletter in my basement, so there you go.

PPS There is more to all of this, too, based on a very good (or terribly bad) book that I’ve read about the nomination process. If you’re interested, I’ll send the link.