VL, I know you really want to justify your endorsement of Obama, but lets get real here.

Obama can't be trusted to follow through on anything he's promised. McCain is likely to govern as far less of a conservative than it would appear at this point -- and is likely to be far more results oriented than ideological.

Trying to frame the discussion as if it was really about 'issues' is utter nonsense -- its not as if Obama knows what he's talking about, or is commited to anything other than self-aggrandizement.

For me, the only issue is 2010 -- and how badly the Democrats will do in that crucial midterm after two years of Obama's "leadership". Dems will be slaughtered in 2010 because in two years time under Obama's 'leadership' the "Democratic" brand will be as despised as the GOP brand is today -- and that means that when redistricting happens, the map will be made even more favorable for the GOP.

McCain is likely to govern as far less of a conservative than it would appear at this point — and is likely to be far more results oriented than ideological.

McSame has a terrible record in the Senate. Really horrible. He, along with JOHN Warner is co-author of the War Crimes Commission Act. It just does not get any more extreme than that.

I'm too tired to search for the bolstering and, even with links, it's all guesswork anyway. What they say now is not what they'll do then.

UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE:

Obama: At worst: no change from present. Middle of the road: tax breaks that really don't help anyone. At best, expansion of Medicare or state healthcare plans to cover lower-income workers - those ineligible for state medical currently, but under a set amount ($40K/married) for those with children under 18. Those with no kids or none under 18 are left to twist in the wind.

McCain: Best case: no change from present system. Worst case: Mandated coverage w/ no tax breaks, no funding.

IRAQ:

Obama: Withdrawal by drips, more diplomatic pressure on Iraqi government to take control. Warlords rising. Complete withdrawal within 3-5 years. Within 6 months - 1 year fo that, an Iraqi strongman takes over the country and becomes the new Saddam. With complicit media and adulating blogger boyz.

McCain: Nothing changes. War without end until Congress finds the nerve to shut off the money spigot. Ratchets up the war drums against Iran with complicit media.

DESTRUCTION OF CONSTITUTION:

Obama: Little to no change in some areas. He's going to enjoy having all that power. Possible changes: Torture is again declared illegal, detainees get real trials or are released due to use of torture. Blogger boyz swoon and proclaim a return of all that is good, decent, and just.

McCain: Little to no change. He's going to enjoy having all that power.

AFFORDABLE COLLEGE EDUCATION:

Obama: Increase in Pell Grant. Possible cap on interest rates at 25%. More swooning and praise, possibly even ululating by the blogger boyz.

McCain: No change.

In short, I expect nothing but the worst from McCain and little-to-nothing from Obama.

that's kinda the whole point.

I'm just going to do Obama because McCain will depend largely on how much the Democratic Congress will cave and how much McCain will bend to be able to say he got some things done. Wouldn't surprise me if McCain ended up being the GOP version of Bill Clinton's post -1994 first term - which is to say mostly conservative with a few cave ins to the Dems (full disclosure - I'm never voting for McCain). Of course, it also won't surprise me if Obama is Bill Clinton's post-1994 term.

Anyway, here we go:

Healthcare

Obama submits his plan to Congress, with Rep. Jim Cooper as his point man. Universality is out - too much of an overhaul, it would be "too expensive." Intead of saying UHC is the policy of the United States, we get a statement in the bill that "Universal Healthcare is a policy goal of the United States Government." We get mandates for kids under 18 instead of 25 since college students can get it through their universities (nobody cares about non-college students). The insurance industry significantly weakens the price controlling factors of the original plan. Subsidies are provided for those with children under 18 depending on income, but they are inadequate for most families. Tax breaks are provided to the rest of us.

Over the course of time, without a mandate and with no strong ability to enforce price controls, healthcare costs per person rise significantly hurting an already strapped federal government and driving many consumers back into the ranks of the uninsured. Attempts to enforce the mandate for kids under 18 are met with news stories highlighting families who are unable to pay for the mandated insurance.

Public confidence in the Government's ability to reform or provide healthcare, as well as other social services, is severely weakened if not discredited. It will be used as an example by conservatives for the next 20 years.

Reproductive Rights

With the retirement of a Supreme Court Justice, Obama gets to make an appointment to the bench. He chooses a woman/hispanic/African-American (possibly overlapping) whose writings indicate a support for Roe, but do so in ways that are squishy and often couched in conservative rhetoric. Over the course of the Obama Administration, Roe is not overturned, but reproductive rights continue to erode.

As for the rest of the judiciary, Obama nominates mostly center-left judges with a few liberals thrown in. Some of the center-left judges come from the Chicago School (ala Richard Posner).

While no longer everything, abstinence continues to be a significant part of federally funded sex education and PEPFAR.

Gay Rights

Obama provides absolutely no leadership on ending DADT or reforming/repealing the Defense of Marriage Act. Instead, he leaves it to the Congress to do something and put legislation on his desk. They don't.

Civil Liberties

A month after taking office, Obama signs a bill legalizing much of the domestic spying that has occurred under the Bush Administration providing a safe harbor, if not outright immunity, to the telecoms. Obama explains that having been briefed on the benefits of such a program to national security, he believes it should be reformed rather than abolished. Behind the scenes, aides indicate that the deal was struck to ensure telecom immunity continues to flow to the DNC and to help provide cover for Obama from charges of looking weak on terror so that he could end torture and close Guantanamo.

The Administration prohibits torture of prisoners.

The Administration works with Congress to revise the Military Commissions Act to provide more civil liberty protections, but falls short of providing full Constitutional protections as would be given to U.S. citizens charged with crimes.

The Administration shuts down Guantanamo Bay. Unsure of what to do with some of the folks there, some are returned to their home countries, some are renditioned (much to the dismay of the ACLU and Amnesty International), some are given to any country that will have them. Some are tried after a deal was reached under the revised Military Commissions Act that would allow testimony obtained under torture to be used if it can be corroborated in other ways (this deal was struck over concern that without it the Administration would have to release genuine terrorists because of the torture committed under the Bush Administration). In the third year of the Obama Administration, a scandal erupts when one of the released folks is captured during fighting in Afghanistan. While the story surrounding his "capture" is convoluted, including whether her was fighting or simply owned a farm nearby, it does not stop conservatives and the media from beating up on the Obama Administration.

Iraq

The Administration slowly draws down troops in Iraq, sending some of them to Afghanistan. It does not withdraw. On election day 2012, at least 50,000 U.S. troops remain in Iraq along with thousands of U.S. contractors.

The Government continues to use Blackwater and other contractors not only in Iraq, but along the Southwest Border (Obama agreed to greater armed enforcement at the border in exchange for a path to citizenship for those undocumented workers already in the U.S.) There are some reforms made in an attempt to hold the contractors accountable.

The Economy

The struggling economy which helped Obama win in November, collapses in the first year of the Obama Administration causing dissatisfaction with him and Democrats. Housing prices continue to fall. Gas and food prices continue to rise. None of which is Obama's fault, but the lack of specific immediate plans to get relief to the public, beyond a proposed middle class tax cut, decrease confidence in the Obama Administration and the Democratic Congress.

The mortgage crisis worsens. Obama proposes plans to help in Congress which are seen as better than nothing, but overly cautious to solve the depth of the problem. The liberals in the Democratic Party fight with Obama over how far to go.

Obama gives a major speech on poverty and appoints John Edwards to take a leadership role in the WH on poverty issues. Two years later Edwards resigns, frustrated by the lack of implementation.

The federal deficit spirals upward due to increased defense spending in Afghanistan, ongoing spending in Iraq, and related spending to restore the military after Iraq, increased healthcare costs as more people are covered but without adequate cost controls, and tepid tax increases (or rather tax cut rollbacks).

I actually have a half-written piece I was saving for Black Agenda Report that does just what you ask for here. But there's too much on the plate to finish it any time this week or next, and I have been sort of desultory about it because, as many here point out, what they say is usually to the left of what they will do anyhow.

I don't see anybody mentioning social security here. Of course Obama says he won't do a number on it, but some of his advisers have made a career out of wanting to privatize it and channel those retirement dollars into Wall Street with some kinds of mandated 401K investment plans or personal retirement accounts or whatever.

And Paul_Lukasiak's observation about the devaluing of the Democratic brand by two years of an Obama administration is really something to think about. It parallels exactly what has happened with the Dem brand in Congress since 2006.

Bruce Dixon
www.blackagendareport.com

My biggest fear is that Obama with the full cooperation and assistance of Congressional Democrats will half-ass healthcare reform as he helped do in Illinois. Only it will be marketed as some great healthcare fix. Assuming single payer won't get through the Senate, that leaves the private/public mix that Obama proposes without the universality and, after it gets through "negotiations", without serious price controls. While it will initially cover more Americans spiraling prices (more covered without price controls or universality to control per person costs) will be its undoing. And because it doesn't cover everybody, it's easier to make the fix less coverage than price controls (hard to take away universal coverage once folks have it).

In so doing the Democrats could take an issue that could revive confidence in the Government to address problems and instead will provide the GOP with talking points about Government failure and inadequacy for a decade or more.

HR 676 has 90 cosponsors. We only need to find an additional 128 supporters to pass it. Obama would not dare veto it.

Remember, Ronald Reagan did not campaign on sanctions against apartheid South Africa in 1985, but he wound signing sanctions legislation.

a grip here.

On tax Obama will increase taxes on folks over 200K, and decrease them on folks under. McCain will decrease middle and lower class taxes, but less and will also lower taxes on the rich--a lot.

On the Supreme Court, Obama will appoint justices who will uphold Roe vs. Wade. McCain won't.

McCain might well go to war with Iran. Obama is very unlikely to do so.

This is not a meaningless election and Obama is significantly better on almost every issue than McCain. Even before McCain started running for the Presidency he was to the right of Obama and if you're going to discount McCain's votes for the last two years, then you need to do the same for Obama, in which case he jumps from the 46th or so most Liberal senator to 26th, still putting him far ahead of McCain.

It's nice that you're bitter about Hillary. I supported her, I would have preferred she would win, but the bottom line is that risking a war with Iran, increasing the likelihood of staying in Iraq for 4 more years, and having 3 Supreme Court Justices in the mold of Alito put on the court isn't an acceptable price to satisfy wounded pride and pique. If you won't hold your nose and vote Obama, I don't want to hear any fucking whining from you when you lose the right to abortion and McCain invades Iran. None. It will just be another goddamn episode in "Americans getting what they deserve, but unfortunately sharing it with the rest of the world". I'm looking forward already to the underground abortion highway to Canada that your stupidity will have made necessary.

Grow up. A lot of people will die and suffer under McCain who wouldn't under Obama. Hold your nose and vote for the lesser evil, or find out how much blood you can wash off your hands.

McCain will decrease middle and lower class taxes, but less and will also lower taxes on the rich—a lot.

only if CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS let it happen

On the Supreme Court, Obama will appoint justices who will uphold Roe vs. Wade. McCain won’t.

only if CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS let it happen

McCain might well go to war with Iran.

only if CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS let it happen

This is not a meaningless election and Obama is significantly better on almost every issue than McCain. Even before McCain started running for the Presidency he was to the right of Obama and if you’re going to discount McCain’s votes for the last two years, then you need to do the same for Obama, in which case he jumps from the 46th or so most Liberal senator to 26th, still putting him far ahead of McCain.

Obama can't be trusted. He's a narcissistic sociopath who lacks the knowledge, experience and temperament to be President. He also is too closely associated with some of the most morally (Wright) ethically (Rezko) and politically (Axelrod, Brazille) corrupt people in the nation.

It’s nice that you’re bitter about Hillary. I supported her, I would have preferred she would win, but the bottom line is that risking a war with Iran, increasing the likelihood of staying in Iraq for 4 more years, and having 3 Supreme Court Justices in the mold of Alito put on the court isn’t an acceptable price to satisfy wounded pride and pique.

all your predictions can come to pass only if CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS let them happen

If you won’t hold your nose and vote Obama, I don’t want to hear any fucking whining from you when you lose the right to abortion and McCain invades Iran. None.

I won't whine about McCain. I'll whine about the CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS who let it happen.

It will just be another goddamn episode in “Americans getting what they deserve, but unfortunately sharing it with the rest of the world”. I’m looking forward already to the underground abortion highway to Canada that your stupidity will have made necessary.

that highway will be paved by CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS, whose craveness will allow it to happen

Grow up. A lot of people will die and suffer under McCain who wouldn’t under Obama. Hold your nose and vote for the lesser evil, or find out how much blood you can wash off your hands.

the blood won't be on my hands. It will be on the corrupt politicians in the DEMOCRATIC PARTY that gave those of us who have principles no choice but to withhold our votes from their nominee -- and it will be on the hands of people like you, who prefer to support a politically corrupt system as long as it has a "D" associated with it, rather than stand up and say PARTY UNITY MY ASS!

An Obama election legitimizes the use of media to push an agenda or candidate, without pretext of objectivity. The media devolves into fractured and purely biased outfits such that the most heavily funded, best marketed will be able to control events more effectively and frequently. It won't matter if candidate X wants universal health care so long as the opposing media outfit has a more disciplined and well funded operation. That's where I see the country heading. Obama supporters--tepid or enthusiastic--are going to have to address that issue with me. Every election is "the most important in the history of the whole friggin' universe", but the slow descent seems to me to be worse than any single election.

I would love to see HR 676 become law, I just don't see how it gets through the Senate.

THIS election IS “the most important in the history of the whole friggin’ universe”

That is because we are 7 years to tipping points on climate change that are unrecoverable. Abortion, courts, wars, democracies, none of these things will matter to your descendants if this is not adressed with serious legislation by the next 7 years.

(Hillary used a lot of the legislative ideas that have worked in Europe, ie Germany's Feed in Tariffs that pay people to make solar power on their roofs. As a result of this and similar legislation, Germany has reduced its carbon emissions under Kyoto to nearly the 20% below 1990 by 2012 target and is now trying for 40% by 2020.)

Climate/Energy Legislation

My predictions:

He will probably sign the Dem legislation that comes his way (PTC, RPS) as long as Hillary cannot get credit for it (For that reason it is probably better not to try for majority leader) But his budget will have more funding for nuke power, clean coal.

Budgets are where presidents have the most effect. Major funding in his budget for more acreage under ethanol production. ADM lobbyists fund next round of approved Dem candidates. Ogalla aqifer collapses by midcentury. Starvation, riots, water wars between states, United States collapses by 2100.

Under McCain, nothing will get passed. He already vetos every eco bill, even ones he cosponsored. He will attempt to get the $4 trillion he said he wants for nuke power, and open up the US for drilling, the Dem congress will refuse most of it, but his budget will waste most energy money on that.

Under both administrations: no shift to a carbonfree economy.

Where it was an easy choice for me between the very different Hillary / Obama energy plan, there is less difference between Obama and McCain....so, it is a hard decision.

On the only issues that really matter, Democrats and Republicans are equally committed to Capitalism and Empire, although the two parties differ as to how those goals are best achieved. The meta still holds, though: Both parties believe that the complete economic, political, and military domination of the planet is necessary to continuing the American way of life.

At this point, the biggest difference between Obama and McCain I can see is that an Obama presidency will put off America's preparations to fight World War III for four to eight years. Democrats prefer carrots, Republicans tend to place their faith in the stick.

...for the rest of us

You are spot on it. I don't see all that much difference between the two current candidates on climate change. Clean coal? You have GOT to be kidding me.

The only thing that will save us is what Paul says and why his statement is spot on. All of this back and forth is predicated on a Democratic Congress (and face it, we KNOW it will be Democratic) with zero spine. We certainly aren't going to see meaningful leadership until we come to grips that we need to for the Congress, along with whoever is president.

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Is not going away any time soon. The most we can expect is for an energy policy to offset that with other truly clean sources.

The reason it's not going away are completely practical - we don't have sufficient alternate energy supplies currently to replace it as a source of electricity and there are areas of the country that would be economically decimated if coal went away.

We're going to have to wean ourselves off coal just as we are off oil. It means a combination of finding other sources and trying to clean up coal and oil in the meantime. And, of course, keeping the coal and oil companies happy. We do live in a corporatist democracy, do we not?

Health Care

Expansion of S-Chip similar to bill that received bipartisan support and was vetoed by Bush.

Health Care won't even be addressed until late in first term. The excuse by Obama and the Democrats will be that they were focusing on Iraq. Speeches by Obama about the great health care program he wants to provide for the American people. A couple of meetings televised on C-Span on the subject. Obama tells people he needs their help to enact a program. When nothing is accomplished, he will tell us how hard he worked for us but that the voters weren't able to convince Republicans to adapt his programs. Promises more effort in second term.

Stem Cell Research

May sign bipartisan bill like what was passed but vetoed by Bush. Big business wants stem cell research and both parties will get behind the effort. Obama may request some token changes that make it appear that he is listening to religious objections.

Social Security

Obama using the excuse that the program is in crisis will make changes that opens the door to partial privatization. Will mandate that employer's establish opt out investment based retirement programs.

A Republican could never move privatization forward but a Democrat with a Democratic controlled Congress can and will IMO.

Iraq

Initial draw down of some troops. Maintain a troop size of 50,000 to 80,000 troops indefinitely and keep or expand contractors such as Blackwater. Might be slightly smaller troop size and a little more diplomacy than McCain but neither will leave Iraq unless the Iraqis find a way to throw us out.

SCOTUS

IMO neither Obama or McCain will appoint justices that will completely overturn or safeguard Roe v Wade. Each party wants to use that issue to blackmail their unhappy voters into holding their noses and voting for their candidate. Obama will appoint justices that have the same legal philosophy as Roberts but are slightly less conservative. More middle of the road. Justices will be business friendly and vote in their interests more often than people.

but we don't. We can't go back in time and change that. We have to start investing now, ITA, but that's not an instantaneous process.

And, yes, I know there's no "clean" coal, but given we're stuck with coal in the near term, we're probably also stuck with looking for ways to make it burn cleaner.

Then there's the economic reality that by investing in renewables, what we're really talking about is getting rid of an industry. A terrible industry, but one many people rely on to make a living. Coal producing states are, not coincidentally, linked closely to and overlap steel producing states and our former industrial base. It's kind of hard to tell them - we fucked you on steel, we fucked you on trade, and now we're going to fuck you on coal.

This puts us in a terrible position. We need to move to alternate sources as quickly as possible and yet we also need to make sure that the displaced people in the economy aren't screwed over again, which requires transition time and money that we really can't afford given the impending environmental disaster. But I'm also reluctant to create yet another group of people to join the growing underclass. Coal sucks - for the miners, for the environment - but it's a job in a region that doesn't have many of those (and I know "clean" coal is mostly a sop to the industry, but we all know that it's the workers who get screwed first as technology changes to make an industry obsolete). And the people working those jobs aren't necessarily going to be part of the new green collar economy. Just as those former steel workers weren't part of the tech boom.

Nothing would make me happier than putting an end to coal mining and coal companies are about as awful as you can get, but I worry about coal miners and the region that depends on that industry. Because after listening to the "creative class" dismiss my entire home state as a bunch of racists, I'm not sure they are going to put as much energy into saving those people as they will in saving the environment.

but beg to differ on jobs in coal.

Back when we rational beings posted at dailykos, retrograde did this excellent compare and contrast of data on jobs in coal versus jobs in wind.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/5/30/...

If we wanted to, we could use oil drilling technology and workers to drill for geothermal steam. Wind turbines are built in big old steel factories like similar tech but dying industries.

Admittedly to make nuclear engineers by 2030 we would have to reinvest in an international level of high school math and university educations in that discipline(theres a shortage currently), but the bluecollar tech to build current renewable solar and wind geothermal is not high tech.

The appalachian states should be given priority to build the carbonfree economy as I diaried (again, ugh, dailykos) last year in
Brown States, Green States
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/7/1/1...

I have exactly the same opinion as Paul L. at 10:25.

Another similarity is I cannot endure the sight of either GWB or BHO. Either appears on the TV, I need to turn it off, switch channels,or leave the room.

Horselover Fat

Now we are going all off topic but.....

I never go to Kos (never did actually, too tres chic for me even back when so no surprises when it went all wack), but that retrograde is the awesomest.

Coal is even worse regarding GCC (global climate change) than oil since there is so damn much of it.

Right now we are working on three different wind projects. There are several hundred construction jobs for each wind project. There are dozens maybe hundreds of wind projects currently in construction throughout the U.S. currently. For every hundred turbines there will be approximately 10 full time jobs. I'm going to work out what that means for potential jobs, but it will take a while and is post worthy.

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Around these parts we call cucumber slices circle bites