Random thoughts and questions on the primaries

I’ve been listening to NPR, and herewith some random thoughts.

0. Last I checked, the press always destroys the annointed front runner, much in the manner of a disturbed five-year-old tearing the wings off a fly. The narrative is one they have a lot of fun with. Hillary was so annointed, but is not yet destroyed.

1. Ron Paul has a ton of money, but he’s not spending it. Third party?

I’d like to see a lot more slicing and dicing of the numbers than we’re seeing. Even youth vs. age isn’t absolute:

2. In CA, Latin@s of all ages, including youth, went 2/3 for Clinton (although apparently there’s a lot of difference state to state here).

3. Asians break for Hillary in CA massively. Why?

4. It’s understandable that the media focuses on youth, because the business people and the marketers like the demographic. But is Hillary bringing new women voters in, as well? (Ann Lewis says there are 20 million single women, IIRC, 5 million voted. Is HRC drawing them in?)

5. How’s Hillary doing on cash?

6. Will Al Gore endorse?

7. Froomkin noticed that Obama’s in a bubble. Who’s covering him, and what are they like? Bush didn’t get a lot of scrutiny from our famously free press. Are we repeating that mistake? (And by “we” I mean “they.”)

8. For a subtle example of media bias, notice that Obama’s count of states won seems to be the metric of choice, rather than total popular vote (HRC wins) or total delegate count including superdelegates (HRC ahead).

9. Apparently the convention rules are really, really complicated, and a lot will hinge on whether (to frame this tendentiously) the voters of FL and MI will be re-enfranchised. Who are the rules geeks in the campaigns, and who’s on the committee that (presumably) will make the decisions?

Regarding FL (I know nothing about MI):

I have to say that the DNC’s goal in turning the FL primary into a beauty contest should have been to punish FL’s party establishment by depriving them of the media exposure and, more importantly, the money that they were trying to seize by gaming the primary calendar.

Since that goal has now been achieved, the voters in Florida, who nevertheless went to the polls in great numbers, should not be disenfranchised. It’s not fair to make them pay for the sins of the party establishment. Therefore, the FL delegates should be seated. It should be easy for the Unity candidate to do the right thing here. Eh?

10. Could Hillary bleed off some of the bad Iraq karma by rethinking the imperial project? Since the Village already hates her, and Obama wants 100,000 more troops, what has she got to lose?

11. Could Obama please fix his health care program? There’s got to be a reason knowledgeable yet Kool-Aid free people are saying it sucks. Could the reason be that it does, in fact, suck?

12. Suppose we’re in a recession (sure feels like it to me). What’s the plan? Obama? Hillary?

13. Should Kos consider sending the Obama campaign an invoice?

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Random Thoughts: making Spanish words gender-inclusive

Lambert,

Here in Mexico, people writing informally often use the “@” to avoid the gender issue,as in “Latin[a|o]s” above. Thus you could type “Latin@s” and it would be gender neutral and inclusive but best of all immediately understandable.

Florida vs Michigan

I agree that the Florida delegates should be seated. Its not as if there was a dearth of coverage that left Floridians completely ill-informed — if anything, it was the perfect “laboratory” for Democracy —- a minimum of pandering to localized constiuent groups, no massive GOTV organizations — the people who had opinions went out and voted, period.

Michigan is another story entirely. Hillary won 56% of the vote there, but largely because Obama and Edwards had both taken their names off the ballot, and Hillary didn’t. Hillary ’earned’ her Florida delegates…but not the ones in Michigan.

Delegate count (the part

Delegate count (the part that actually matters) is too “inside baseball” for the MSM. They’d need to spend more than five seconds on it, and not all of their anchors have that attention span.

Obama wants 100,000 more troops????????

Wow, this is the first I have heard of this. Got a link? No wonder the village loves him.

The complexity of California

My take on the racial divide out here is that our not-yet-fully-integrated immigrant groups, Hispanics and Asians, have been scrapping with blacks for a handhold on jobs and housing at the low end of the economic ladder for several decades. Lots of racial tension, lots of pretty open animosity all the way around including armed gang warfare for turf over drug dealing and extortion rackets. The DFH counties went to Obama but the blue collar counties all went to Clinton, with Hispanic and Asian voters making up a big part of that difference.

We’re not all high-living white wine and latte sipping squishy liberal potheads; much of California is tough to make a living in and pretty hardscrabble, as it has been for 150 years.

(About) 100K troops: link

We should expand our ground forces by adding 65,000 soldiers to the army and 27,000 marines.

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070701fa…

Obama foreign policy basics:
*unilateral action: OK
*aggressive war: OK
*increased military spending (major $$$)
*increased “nation building”

Mind you, he plans on doing this during the midst of a severe recession and when the world demands that we meddle less in their affairs, if at all. He justifies this all by stating that we’re the (moral) leader of the world.

What, everybody doesn't know regular expressions?

Steve, done. Thanks!

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

The New Progressive

MSM did not even mention Asians. Apparently the Asian Dems met with Hillary and Obama and wanted a commitment for judicial and other appointments. Obama would not commit to giving Asians a seat at the table. Hillary did. No brainer. She knows CA politics. Obama did not want a picture with Newsam cause he did not want his base to know he is with the Mayor of SF who wanted gay marriage legalized.

The new Progressive, what do they stand for? What commitment do they have to social or economic justice.

Got a link on that, Karina?

This Unity thing is looking all the more tired — maybe that’s why they’re shifting the vacuous buzzword to transformational — but it’s always nice to have a link.

Asians hate ponies anyhow. Everybody knows that.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

hillary is running out of money

that i’ve been reading a bunch of late. that’s what “momentum” matters to the SCLM- which candidate will fill that endless maw with even more cash.

once again i feel dems got played here. they let consultants and others tell them, “raise this much, the primary system will guarantee a winner by this date, spend at this rate.” and so they did, and hillary wasted plenty of time and money “being the front runner,” so as you point out, she could be shot down by the media. i’m just so disgusted by the whole process i could puke. others don’t like the idea, but i’m still wondering why a national primary day, or even 4 days across four months with a 1/4 of the electorate, selected equally from each region of the country, voting each of those months, is such a bad idea? this whole affair seems like “it’s over when we say it’s over” and that’s coming exclusively from the SCLM, and not voters.

re MI: we’re fucked. no one cares about our votes, representation, democracy, any of that shit. yes, it’s unfair to seat MI given that obama and edwards weren’t on the ballot, and wouldn’t be counted even if supporters wrote in their names, re specific instructions from the state party, headed by a gov who supports hillary. but everyone from obama to hillary to dean to MI state party folks agrees: there will be no do-over. MI “just won’t count this year.” period. unless it is counted only in hillary’s favor.

democratic, eh?

i’m getting angry just thinking about it and will stop here, as my “advice” to folks at this stage of the primary includes, “fuck you” and “i guess no one cares about disenfranchisement if it happens in poor, unsexy states like MI” and other assorted unhelpful moments in rhetoric.

I hate to bring up McCain...

… but the current GOP front-runner almost ran out of money and was left for dead last year.

I have to believe Hillary’s professional enough to have worked this out.

And the numbers coming from the Obama camp would be triumphal, wouldn’t it?

MI sounds pretty bad. Not the same as FL, I don’t think. Sounds like Granholm really overreached, if it is Granholm.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

her staff is working for free right now

or so i just read somewhere i am too lazy to go find the link for. if true, that’s a bad sign.

Minorities

Bill Clinton had a special relationship with minorities. Asians, Latinos and African Americans served in his administration on many levels. Minorities are always and everywhere discriminated against; they don’t forget the kind touch.

Asians and Latinos have not forgotten that. Actually, African Americans didn’t forget either, until Obama made his grand racial play. Accusing the Clintons of being anti African American, with the support of Obama dogs such as Donna Brazil (“fairytale” means racism) pressured most African Americans into deserting Hillary; not all did.

Hillary's in deep trouble financially

Not only did she loan herself $5M, but Obama played it smartly by asking his online mob to match her and is well on his way to raising $5M by tonight! At least. Clinton is trying to raise $3M in 3 days and has barely has $1M so far (I donated yesterday).

I can’t imagine a realistic scenario for Clinton to win this thing. I don’t think OH, TX, or PA will be good for her if he basically sweeps the February contests.

Somewhat random: I wonder if Obama has enough Dear Leader followers, who are well organized across many states, to inoculate himself from the inevitable right-wing smears via the corporate media?

Needs a link on staff, CD

TPM I semi-trust; here. No mention.

If it’s Politico, no.

If it’s anything emanating from Kos that isn’t from somebody I’ve known a long time, of course not.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

once again i am wrong

i really thought that hillary was the centrist dem of choice for the SCLM. she would have been such a great prez for their purposes: they could’ve endlessly focused on her vagina and vince foster and hamstringed any attempt at progressive policy she may have tried, however infrequently. seriously, if i were an evil media overlord, she’d have been my choice to reverse-psychology into office. the revenue streams hillary-hate could generate!

but i guess they’ve run the numbers, and obama is even better. build him up now, even let him win in the fall, after a good, damaging fight, of course, one that has a side benefit of tearing down feminism in the process and elevating a false narrative of homogeneity in the black community, one that is extremely religious and conservative and homophobic (and anti SS and pro war and pro religion and “unity” based). a reverse “only nixon could go to china” moment that preserves the male hegemony and neuters a modern, post-civil rights “race” movement by reducing it to past and exclusive forms…gosh, the more i think about it the more i understand.

so yeah, i was wrong. or rather, it looks like i will be proved so. i thought hillary would be the Last Democrat to come before our republican hitler of 2012/2016, but perhaps that was too ambitious. better to lynch this guy in 2011; it fits better with the narrative of “total global war against sand niggers” that will be launched shortly after that, as obama fails to stop the economic and employment and investment slide that is happening and will happen on his watch.

hillary, staff, fundraising via huffpo

Time’s Mark Halperin reports that senior Clinton campaign advisers — including campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle — have “voluntarily chosen to work without pay this month” as part of a “Clinton cash crunch” against the Obama campaign. (This is despite the fact that campaign pollster Mark Penn’s firm was paid $4.3 million by the campaign.)
In related news, Obama aides say they expect to raise another $30 million in February alone, nearly matching their record cash haul in January.
Much more from AP:
WASHINGTON — Super Tuesday’s mixed outcome has set up at least four weeks of frenzied delegate hunting for Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, pitting his well-financed all-terrain campaign against her big state strategy.
In a sign of Obama’s growing financial advantage, Clinton acknowledged Wednesday that she loaned her campaign $5 million late last month as Obama was outraising and outspending her heading into Feb. 5 Super Tuesday contests.
Buoyed by strong fundraising and a primary calendar in February that plays to his strengths, Obama plans a campaign blitz through a series of states holding contests this weekend and will compete to win primaries in the Mid-Atlantic next week and Hawaii and Wisconsin the following week.
Clinton, with less money to spend and less confident of her prospects in the February contests, will instead concentrate her efforts on Ohio and Texas, large states that hold primaries March 4 and where polling shows her with a significant lead. She even is looking ahead to Pennsylvania’s primary April 22, believing a largely elderly population there will favor the former first lady.
Clinton’s personal loan illustrated her financial disadvantage and her desire to pick her targets with care. On Wednesday, she sent out an e-mail appeal to donors Wednesday seeking $3 million in three days _ an effort, that if successful, would match the fundraising rate Obama averaged for the entire month of January.
“I loaned it because I believe very strongly in this campaign,” Clinton told reporters Wednesday. “We had a great month fundraising in January, broke all records, but my opponent was able to raise more money and we intended to be competitive and we were.”
“And I think the results last night proved the wisdom of my investment.”
Both campaigns claimed bragging rights for their Super Tuesday successes Wednesday while acknowledging it could be weeks or even months until either candidate has amassed enough delegates to win the party’s nomination.
Obama won 13 Super Tuesday states while Clinton picked up eight and American Samoa with New Mexico left to be decided. Both camps claimed a small delegate lead, but an analysis by The Associated Press indicates there were still many to be counted.
“We are going to try and contest every contest, and win as many delegates we can,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said. “If you look at the next month, we have a lot of confidence that we will hold the pledged delegate lead.”
Obama, riding a wave of fundraising both from large donors and small Internet contributors, raised a stunning $32 million in January. Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said last week the Clinton campaign raised only $13.5 million for the month. The $5 million loan was in addition to that amount, Wolfson said.
Clinton advisers were stunned by Obama’s January fundraising and have marveled at his ability to raise small-dollar amounts from a vast field of donors.
“We will have funds to compete,” chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn said, “but we’re likely to be outspent again.”
The Clinton camp was eager to take the luster off of Obama’s status as a “movement candidate” who has generated unprecedented activism and fundraising through the Internet. Clinton strategists went out of their way to label him an “establishment candidate” and worked to pitch her message to online activists.
Obama was heading late Wednesday to Louisiana, where he is favored to win the state’s primary Saturday largely on his strength among black voters. He also planned to campaign in Nebraska and Washington state, which also hold contests that day.
Clinton was being more circumspect. She planned to campaign Thursday in Virginia, which holds its primary next Tuesday along with neighbors Maryland and the District of Columbia. She was also headed to Maine, which holds precinct caucuses Sunday.
Penn conceded the campaign would rely on surrogates to campaign for her in most of states holding contests Saturday, including President Clinton and daughter Chelsea. It was a tacit admission that the former first lady was unlikely to win any of those states outright.
Privately, her strategists have also largely written off her chances of winning the so-called Potomac primary Feb. 9, given the large black populations in Virginia, Maryland and D.C. They are also playing down her chances in the following week’s major primaries _ Hawaii, where Obama grew up, and Wisconsin, which has virtually sealed the nomination for other Democrats in years past.
Wisconsin’s Democratic electorate is largely liberal and college educated, and its open primary allows independents to vote _ all factors that favor Obama.
Clinton political director Guy Cecil insisted the campaign was competing hard in all those places. the campaign has paid staff in Wisconsin and as developed a strong grass-roots organization there.
The campaign, however, was clearly focused on the March 4 contests in Ohio and Texas, both of them offering a trove of delegates. But both states are have several media markets, making advertising an expensive proposition. A state wide race in Texas can cost $1 million a week in advertising.
Cecil identified Texas as a top priority. “We think it is a linchpin in our nomination to the presidency,” he said.
While Clinton was focusing on Ohio and Texas, her organized supporters were weighing in for her in upcoming state contests. The American Federation of Teachers was going up with radio ads promoting her in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. They also planned a two-week placement of radio ads in Wisconsin, which holds its primary Feb. 19.
Clinton faces significant fundraising obstacles ahead, raising the possibility that she might have to dip into the family’s wealth again. The Clinton’s financial disclosures, which reveal only broad ranges of assets, place their wealth between $10 million to $50 million.
Campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson said the loan came from Sen. Clinton’s “share of their joint resources.”
An analysis by the Campaign Finance Institute, which tracks trends in political money, found that Obama raised about a third of his money in 2007 from donors who gave $200 or less. Only one-third of his money came from donors who have given the legal maximum of $2,300, compared to Clinton who raised about half of her money from “maxed out” donors and only 14 percent from donors of $200 or less.

link

But everybody gets a pony, CD!

When you don’t know who the patsy is at a meeting, the patsy is you.

So Sullivan, Kristol, Broder, Brooks, Kennedy, and Volcker are all at this meeting with Obama. And….

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

OK on the staff

I looked, couldn’t find.

$3 million in small donors is impressive.

It’s also 10% of the $32 million. I wonder who those donors are…

You know, in a way, I’m optimistic. I feel like I’m fighting on the right side, believe it or not. That’s always a good feeling. Like 2006 all over again but with higher stakes.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

what, lb? huffpo isn't at the very top of your blogroll?

snicker.

that’s why i read the boards. i read about what other people have read and feel compelled to mention, and 9/10 times, with a little googling i can find “a legitimate source” later with a search query like ’hillary staff cuts fundraising.’ so in this case. why read the mediocre blogs that suck, when one can trust in the rabble to tell one what the gossip of the day is? a real time saver, the boards are…

Back to the subject of Q. #1 re: Paul

(no that was not an attempt to suggest, Mr. Subliminal like, “Ru Paul.” That would be wicked.)

That is a very good question indeed, one which has been bobbing to the surface of my mind like an ill-digested turd in a not-recently-pumped septic tank.

Here’s another shekel to throw on the pile. Via an atrios thread Wed. night:

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul, aided by an extraordinary outpouring of Internet support Monday, hauled in more than $4.2 million in nearly 24 hours.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21646939/
hadenough

Paul is like a Roach Motel except for money. It goes in…but it doesn’t come out.

Except for yard/hand waving signs. My guess is he’s sending those en masse upon request, or for at most a tiny token payment to weed out the incincere. The ones that group up in Paris have been waving on the corner all winter rain or shine were not el cheapo cardboard. They were the honeycomb hard plastic, non-fade, light, easily handled…expensive. And some odd sizes too, meaning custom made.

But that couldn’t use more than a very small number of millions at most. Are there any rules, legal or party, as to what must be done with funds donated to a campaign? Assuming you can’t use them to commit a crime (hire a hacker to trash opponents websites for instance, or a hit man to deal with the problem more directly)

Bar illegality though, could he just be pocketing the moohla? And walk away, mumble inaudible complaints about persecution to make his followers feel better, and spend it on blow and hookers?

Not that I think Dr. Paul would do such things mind you. We are being hypothetical here. But

it's a great gig if you can get it, xan

iirc candidates get to keep the money to spend or snort at will. even if they lose, or don’t end up running, or fall off some/all ballots. remember kerry’s “14M warchest to count all the votes?” iirc, that never got spent. like he needed to keep it! but even if he gave it all to poor starving african children with aids, i’m still annoyed (but not surprised) to consider that “no one knows” where the money goes once a campaign has shut down.

the tangential conversation: what %age of donations have gone to “consultants” in each of the campaigns? how much have these “advisors” been paid by the campaigns, and who will employ them when the campaigns are done? perhaps, the same people who take the campaign’s money for ads? i’m just asking…