This shouldn’t be so difficult, but it is. Even an “expert” can be confused by nomenclature and imprecise press releases; an interested but less than fanatic follower of the process has no chance to keep things straight.

A while back I wrote about a change in the DNC Rules and Bylaws Standing Committee, with a new membership that did not include Donna Brazille – good news, thought I. But as it turns out, I was wrong. And boy, am I embarrassed.

The DNC press release I read, and copied to file, wasn’t exactly as clear as it should have been – or perhaps I was denser than I should have been. (You know what? Let’s all agree to blame Howard Dean for this one, shall we?) A look at the currentDNC web site now makes it clear, though; the new Rules Committee is a committee for the Rules of the Convention, not a replacement of the Rules and Bylaws Committee that refused to recognize the Florida and Michigan elections. [reaches for Aspirin bottle]

So are we all straightened out now? Thought not. Slowly, so I can keep up: There are two Rules Committees. Apparently naming two committees similarly is another way the DNC keeps the nominating process transparent and easy to follow. One of them is the Rules Committee for the Convention, so let’s call them “RCC.” The other is the Rules and Bylaws Committee that controls the delegate selection process, and let’s call them “R&BC” to save my fingertips and keep them discernable. [reaches for Maalox bottle]

The RCC will meet sometime in August to settle on rules for the operation of the convention. This would mostly be to sanction existing boilerplate, but depending on what happens with FL and MI delegate seating, appeals, and assorted other hoo-hah between now and then they may have to put together some new rules to help the Convention deal with conflicts.

The R&BC [stay with me now] will be meeting in Washington DC on May 31 to rule on pending appeals from the state Democratic Committees from both FL (DFL) and MI (DMI). Sadly, Donna Brazille still squats on the R&BC. [reaches for Scotch bottle]

There will not be, at this point, much effect from this meeting on the overall pledged delegate outcome; Obama will end up with a majority of all of the pledged delegates but not enough to secure the nomination. The decision on the nomination will, almost certainly, be made by the superdelegates who have not yet declared, and that will probably happen sometime in June.

The purpose of the May 31 meeting is to make nice with DFL and DMI – at least publically – and thereby pacify the understandably upset (although slothful) voters of MI and FL.

There are 30 members on R&BC, and decisions are made by majority rule; the members from MI and FL, one each*, cannot vote on matters dealing with their own state, so the functional committee size will be 29. Most of the members of R&BC have declared an affiliation for one candidate or the other. According to my "expert" tally, Clinton is two short of having her supporters control the committee:

Co-Chairs - no endorsement
Alexis Herman (co-chair, D.C.)
James Roosevelt, Jr. (co-chair, MA)

Members - no known endorsement (6)
*Mark Brewer (MI)
Ralph Dawson (NY)
Yvonne Gates ( NV)
Alice Germond (DC) - DNC Secretary
David McDonald (WA)
Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA)

Members - Clinton supporters (13)
Hartina Flournay (DC)
Donald Fowler (SC)
Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. (TX)
Alice Huffman (CA)
Harold Ickes, Jr. (DC)
Ben Johnson (DC)
Elaine Kamarck (MA)
Eric Kleinfeld (DC)
Mona Pasquil (CA)
Mame Reiley (VA)
Garry Shay (CA)
Elizabeth Smith (DC)
Michael Steed (MD)

Members - Obama supporters (9)
Donna Brazille (DC)
Carol Khare Fowler (SC)
Martha Fuller Clark (NH)
Janice Griffin (MD)
Thomas Hynes (IL)
*Allan Katz (FL)
Sharon Stroschein (SD)
Sarah Swisher (IA)
Everett Ward (NC)

R&BC members have been asked to arrive on the day before the meeting and not plan to leave until the day after. The goal is to get this mess settled and done with.

Lots of rumors flying around about how R&BC will rule, most of them partisan wishful thinking. I believe (in my “expert” opinion) that it will settle out along the following lines:

Florida will be addressed first and in the end will have all of the superdelegates seated at full strength, independent of any announced affiliation. Their selection will be left up to DFL. The pledged delegates, the ones selected (more or less) by the too-early election, will be seated with 1/2 vote each in support of the need to enforce the “50% penalty" in Democratic Party rules.

Apportionment by candidate will be left to DFL, thus separating R&BC and the DNC from any blowback regarding favoritism towards one candidate or the other. It can be expected that DFL will apportion the candidates within the FL election rules and in conformation with Party delegate selection rules, probably giving Clinton 105 delegates with 52.5 votes, Obama 69 delegates with 34.5 votes and Edwards 11 delegates with 5.5 votes. Unless not.

Michigan is a bit dicier, since Obama was not on the ballot, but having settled Florida the same approach will be used to drive this settlement. All of the superdelegates will be probably be seated at full strength, with DMI given the task of selecting them. It is with the pledged delegates that the confusion will lie. (DMI rules are here, not that anyone seems to be paying them any attention.)

While Clinton had won the popular vote count and so could expect to receive a majority of the pledged delegates, the Michigan election process is two-step with elected delegates voting at district conventions. That secondary process kept Clinton’s pledged delegate count the same but moved half of the Uncommitted pledged delegates to an Obama-affiliated group. The state DMI committee was then supposed to meet on May 17 to select PLEO and At-Large delegates, but that meeting has now been postponed until June 14.

Further complicating matters, because I guess at this point why not, DMI has submitted a formal proposal to R&BC suggesting a split of pledged delegates unfavorable to Clinton. How this will be sorted out is anyone’s guess, but if Clinton supporters have the majority of the committee votes she should have her way and secure the pledged delegates in proportion to her margin in the election itself. Whatever, those pledged delegates will probably also be seated with 1/2 vote each.

Unless, of course, something different happens. (drains Maalox bottle, guzzles Scotch, crumples “expert” medallion, clutches chest, sobs quietly)

Regulations of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (R&BC)