"Stay safe by following our orders."

Oh?

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What else?

What else can they do?

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

A question

Is there any evidence that blundering in with great "collateral" violence is an effective tactic against terrorism, even if some number of leaders are killed in the process?

Examples, both immediate and distant

We do have Iraq and Afghanistan as immediate examples, Lebanon a few years back, and tons of examples in the past, no? My question is have we ever not known the answer?

This is kind of hits on what's been concerning me about this distracting call for being exceptionally/particularly cautious in how we discuss this issue. No one here has ever asked or questioned whether what coalition forces have done in Iraq and Afghanistan is effective, because the answer has always been, like climate change, a decided question for liberals. So, I guess my next question is, then, why do we treat this any differently. Is there any evidence? No, in fact, there is evidence to the contrary of which entire books have been written on the subject.

And, if Iraq and Afghanistan don't strike your fancy, then we can try on Somalia, India/Pakistan, the Phillipines, etc...

There seems to be an irrational (at least from a liberal's standpoint) push to slow this down and to repackage this conflict as different from all the others ones we've seen and are currently seeing, and I guess that's where I lose contact with those that argue for exceptional cautiousness. We've seen this show, before, and many times, in fact. So, what is behind the heavy push to make this show exceptional? In fact, I don't think I'm the only one curious about this.

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

Sorry, Damon

I'm having trouble following you here.

What are you saying about the efficacy of zealous force as seen by our tactics in Iraq and Afghanistan? Are you saying it works, or that it doesn't? I'm not looking for examples of failures, since overwhelming violence has intrinsic potential for terrorist recruitment and blowback, just whether it's ever been successful. (I've heard the Surge worked beyond someone's wildest dreams, but still....)

Also, my "distracting call" is not for undue caution about discussing I/P, it's a call for a culture that allows for nuanced discussion. That is, not treating it as, as you describe, a "decided question" about which all conversations are required to go a certain way. In between bouts of people ripping my head off and accusing me of "transgressions," I've found out some interesting things, like ideas for how peace might be made some day in the Holy Lands. When the text and subtext of every post is "Israel sux," however true that may be, some topics just don't get aired.

Likewise, it ought to be possible to ask questions about Climate Change. If the case is solid, the case is solid, and a person of conscience ought to be able to kick the tires if s/he's not 100% sold on, for example, the urgency of it.

Doesn't

That it doesn't work, of course. Are we now questioning the efficacy of our war in Iraq, too, then?

Yes, it ought to be an is possible to ask questions about climage change. Asking whether it exists, or not, as caused by humans, though, puts one in conspiracy theorist territory. VastLeft, let's keep following this, then. Would you mind entertaining Holocaust deniars or the moon landing conspiracy theorists?

I fear that your believing that people are "ripping my head off" because you did nothing more than asked questions, as that is an awfully warped (and it seems purposefully) interpretation of things. I haven't been following your posts, as of late, but from what little I saw during the beginning of all of this, the central criticism seems to be that you're seeking to equalize the unequitable for its own sake. Seeing as how you've done this on few other issues, and never to this extent, I think some are questioning your true motives/what you're really searching for with your questions.

I mean, when you characterize the general left as viewing Hamas as some "cuddly mascot" or however you ended up puting it, something for which you never showed any proof of, what kind of reaction do you seriously expect? I think the response to you, as of late, has been about you portraying yourself as some genuine open book on the issue, and then preaching to everyone else about issues of groupthink and critical thinking, when your comments that people have taken issue with reveal you to be no such thing. It's the seeming two-facedness of your motives. If those folks have you wrong, you've yet to effectively take-down their characterization and questiong of your motives.

Again, is it now curious to you where this call for exceptional thoughtfulness is on other issues that we discuss and have discussed? I'll tell you what, you've never got the reaction that you have because you've never called for this level of exceptional thoughtfulness on any other issue. You're not the victim of anyone, here, I'm sorry to say. You've never had the gall to say it (and thank goodness), but your questions, as of late, are tinged with a "everyone's pissed, so I must be in the right" kind of whiff to them.

I've not been the best with words. Perhaps, someone more to-the-point can put our questions and concerns with your focus and geunuiness.

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

Obviously, you don't see it this way

But from where I sit, I'm seeing a textbook example of tribalism.

No matter how much I clarify that I'm not taking a going-in position on proportionality and blame, I keep getting characterized as "seeking to equalize the unequitable for its own sake." People who are full-to-the-brim with certainty that Israel's culpability towers over Palestine's act like pack wolves if you suggest that one put those respective grievances on the same table. Why? The case is so strong, what is the harm in juxtaposing the grievances? Shouldn't that prove the case beyond all doubt?

As a vehement opponent of the Iraq War, I would have wished for nothing more than for more people to have considered an honest pro and con about the war, because my case kicked ass. If the case against Israel kicks ass, why bite the head off of someone who wants it presented fairly, and in context of the case that's made for it?

A perfect example of this kind of tribalism was the Hillary/CK discussion, where I plainly:

1) Have been an outspoken supporter of Hillary (to whose campaign I donated on multiple occasions) in the face of great hostility
2) Don't have a dog in this hunt -- I don't live in NY, and I don't have any strong opinions on CK

Yet because I asked people to join me in considering nuanced issues with no bias against Hillary and none toward CK, I was reamed in the comments, apparently because I touched a tribal nerve (perhaps "our girl is being attacked" and/or "the evil Obama-supporter might be getting some sympathy!").

Dealing with the OFB all last year gave me a lot of insight about how defensive people act, and defensiveness is what you get from progressives when you ask them to leave a little room in their I/P discussions for considering Israeli grievances. Just as I had trouble taking on faith that Hillary was evil incarnate, I have trouble taking on faith that anyone's conventional wisdom on the Middle East is the story I have to eat hook line and sinker, no questions asked (or else!).

You're right, I don't

You continue to try to characterize yourself as an innocent victim in all of this. I'll say it again, but it's been my observation that the reaction comes from your seeming disingenuousness. Again, how are you going to defend the sweeping generalization you made about some generic left seeing Hamas as a cuddly mascot? You can't run from that; you can't pretend to simply be asking sideless questions. Those were your words; your careless and baseless generalization. If your head was torn off, as you keep describing the reaction as, comments like that deserved a drumming, and same goes to Sarah's brash and careless mischaracterizations of some general left that she also failed to back-up.

The irony in all of this is that you're portraying yourself as a victim, while it was folks like Amberglow and zeezee who punitive were taken out against while both you and Sarah made offensive (but more importantly baseless, as at least Sarah supplied no linky-goodness to her offensive comments) generalization after offensive generalization about a left that you all didn't ever prove existed. The irony is that the other two were asked to prove things, while the very starters of the posts weren't asked to prove any of their baseless, offensive generalizations.

You're not the victim, here; sorry.

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

Boy, if there's one thing I've learned

My impression that the left had self-appointed thought police about I/P is completely baseless. My bad.

If it does

Then it is incumbent upon you offer linky goodness, particularly since you started a thread making such a claim. Amberglow was suspended for making so-called baseless claims against you, I believe, and zeezee was pressured into apologizing to you for the same thing. It is only fair, then, that when you start a thread that you prove your generalizations, as well. If you don't see the irony, I'm not sure what else to say. If Lambert were fair, he'd have called on everyone making dubious claims to prove them.

Oh, and BTW, you're still ducking the generalization about the left viewing Hamas as a cuddly mascot. In my mind, that you never made an attempt to to cite examples of such a thing is grounds for a suspension as well. Lambert; you there? The blog can have no credibility if bloggers aren't reasonably assured of the fair application of the rules.

That little quip of a post does not satisfy the dubious claim you made that still stands unpunished. And, until it is, I'm going to bring it up wherever you give me a chance to, and this was perfect. Remember, this is what you're going to get when you try to paint yourself as the victims, when the true victims were cowed into silence by the god of the board. At best, everytime you paint yourself a victim you're being insensitive to the actual casualties of the discussion. At worst, you're abusing your status as a senior fellow, here, and that must come to and end. Procedure is important; procedure does matter, and if you're credible, you'll acknowledge that you were not a victim of anything here. Please, disabuse yourself of the idea that powerless can abuse the powerful in this discussion. You've been saved by the god of this blog.

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

No, I've been saved by...

not giving a flying fuck what you think.

Touch a nerve?

You love to use that line. So, how does it feel? Glad to see that you're proving my points. You love to preach, but when the script is flipped your arguments turn into those of petulant, nonsensical, and elementary ones. Bless your heart. It really hurts when one isn't being honest in discussion, doesn't it? Your childish response and the dodging of defending your generalization(s) was a patent admission of guilt for all to see, as far as I'm concerned, and that is all that I needed given that you've got the god of the board in your pocket, and thus will not apply the rules fairly. Thanks. That leaves two down, and one more to go.

I'm done with you, now, so I don't need to belabour the point, here, any longer. I'm just glad that I could bleed you the way you and the others help bleed the not-so-senior fellows, here. Bullies need to expect to be punched in the nose, eventually.

Lambet may not make you pay a price for making scurrilous charges against mainstream liberalism, but you're going to pay someone for making such dubious claims, and I've come to collect. :)

Hey, read my first reply, here, and the second one where I went out of my way to play nice with you, especially considering the silly question you asked about collateral damage that'd you never ask about a bombing in Iraq. You're the one who's brought this here by shirking your responsibility.

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

Responsive questions

First: Why the quotes around "collateral"? Is that designed to imply that there isn't collateral violence at work? Is it to imply that the violence is not "blundered" into being collateral and is actually part of the tactic? Or is it to imply the irony of the very term "collateral" as it is an inherent part of ANY violent act, whether intended or not?

Second: The question makes the assumption that this is a tactic against terrorism. Are you groupthinking this one? Numerous accounts from Israeli sources say this is designed primarily to improve Israel's military clout in the region following the disasterous Lebanon affair they botched two years ago. Is it really an anti-terrorist tactic, or is it designed to increase Israel's tactical position regarding it's adversaries? Does your question make sense without that assumption, or is the point of the question to show that it is not an effective tactic and so they might be implimenting it for other reasons?

Third: The question seems to take as a given that "some number of leaders", are terrorists (more groupthinking?), which leaders? Hamas leaders? Are all Hamas leaders terrorists?

Forth: Your question makes another interesting assumption. Even if the question's previous assumption (or Israel's) that Hamas leaders are by definition terrorists were true, even without "collateral" violence (as you put it), would it still be an effective tactic to kill terrorist leaders? Has there ever been any evidence that killing terrorist leaders has been an effective tactic against terrorism? Especially when terrorism is generally regarded as a tactic, rather than an end in itself? The way your question is worded implies that the only reason it wouldn't be an effective counter-terrorism tactic is the "blundering in with great "collateral" violence" aspect (the word "even" is the tell). Is this groupthinking as well?

We should all examine our thought processes to make sure we aren't making assumptions based only on groupthink rather than rational thinking. I'm just doing my small part (as part of the thought police).

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I'm not such a bad guy once you get to know me.

Time

Time did a pretty good article on these questions, in its most recent edition. I've yet to read the whole thing, but it hits very quickly on some of the points we've all hit on, and one which I've been asking about and mulling over ever since I became aquainted with the issue: How will a Jewish state survive when Jews become the minority?

Question: Will military force subdue an insurgency? History has answered this question again and again and again.

Israel's Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, has promised a "war to the bitter end." But after 60 years of struggle to defend their existence against foreign threats and enemies within, many Israelis may be wondering, Where does that end lie? The threat posed by Hamas is only the most immediate of the many interlocking challenges facing Israel, some of which cast dark shadows over the long-term viability of a democratic Jewish state. The offensive in Gaza may degrade Hamas' ability to menace southern Israel with rocket fire, but, as with Israel's 2006 war against Hizballah, the application of force won't extinguish the militants' ideological fervor.

Humanity knows this; they've always known this, and by that I mean that using your military to an agreived insurgency never works unless you're willing to exterminate it, that means killing everyone, insurgents and those that the insurgents fight for. The only way an insurgency ends, extremination, is on its own terms when it changes its own mind for a reason of its choosing, not the terms of the military battling it.

Question: What's to become of the Arabs in Israel? They certainly aren't going anywhere.

Just as ominous for many Israelis is a ticking demographic time bomb: the likelihood that Arabs will vastly outnumber Jews in the land stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean is a catastrophic prospect for a nation that defines itself by its faith. At some point, Israelis will have to choose between living with an independent Palestinian state or watching Jews become a minority in their own land.

Israel's population of 7.1 million is today divided into 5.4 million Jews and 1.6 million Arabs. But if you include Arabs in Gaza and the West Bank, they may already have a slender majority; and given their higher birthrate, the gap will widen quickly. This tectonic shift in demographics is what scared even hawkish Israelis like former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon into abandoning the biblical dreams of a Greater Israel stretching all the way from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean. As Olmert recently warned, "If we are determined to preserve the Jewish and democratic character of the state of Israel, we must inevitably relinquish, with great pain, parts of our homeland." In other words, if Israelis cling to the West Bank and Gaza, as many religious Zionists insist, Jews will find themselves a shrinking minority in their own state.

Not only would Israel cease to be a Jewish state, it would no longer be a democratic one either, unless Arabs are given a fair share of power. A few bold Arab intellectuals are saying Palestinians should abandon the idea of a two-state solution and just wait until they outnumber the Jews. That would take decades, and it may rest more on wishful thinking by Palestinians than a real calculation of political reality. But the population shift underscores a plain fact: for Israel, the status quo won't be good enough for much longer.

I found the way Time characterized this to be offensive. It's painted as a catastrophic problem like some kind of plague, and that Israeli Arabs somehow are a people that should be dumped, and quickly. I'm sorry to tell Time this, but even if there is a Palestinian state created, Israeli Arabs are still going to stay in Israel in some large numbers. Most of the Arabs that currently live in Israel proper have historical roots there.

Question: What does Hamas realistically want?

Hamas says it will agree to a truce if Israel retreats from Gaza and loosens the economic choke hold that has strangled the 1.5 million Palestinians who live on the sliver of land along the Mediterranean. After weeks of global outrage over the unfolding humanitarian disaster in Gaza, any mediator — France, the European Union, Turkey and Egypt are all auditioning for the role — will insist that Israel end its 18-month blockade.

So, all of the focus on what their constitution does and doesn't say is largely irrelevant. This is esepcially true when you stop for just two seconds are remember that Israel negotiated with the much more deadly and capable PLO. It gets even more ridiculous when you sit and admit to yourself that Hamas could no more topple the Israeli government than an ant can topple an elephant.

Question: What are some of the side effects of the war? Much more grave than you think.

But how far Arab states will be willing to go now to make peace with Israel is unclear. The Saudi-sponsored Arab Peace Plan, which offered Israel peace with 22 Arab countries if it withdrew to its 1967 borders, will remain on the table for Israel's new PM to consider. Even Syria, a prime supporter of Hamas, spent part of 2008 in indirect peace talks with Israel mediated by Turkey. But Syria has broken off its talks for now, destroying any chance that Damascus, on behalf of Israel, might put pressure on the exiled Hamas leaders residing there.

So, not only does the offensive not seek to topple Hamas, but it feeds it with every civilian death, pushes the moderate Arab neighbors away from the table, and thus does nothing for Israel's long-term security.

Time got the question right, this isn't about whether Gaza can survive, but if Israel can survive its own onslaughts? Quite a price to stop some

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

Proportionality

Please have a look at this post by eriposte as to whethere disproportionate responses work. In particular, the US Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual addresses the matter in detail.

Proportionate?

Thanks for that, ralphb.

Thank you for the linky-goodness.

But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...

Ditto, thanks ralphb! n/t

.

Gee--Concept of proportionality is not just a DFH idea! Thnx, rb

BTW, where do people in Gaza go when told to find safer places? Terrifying situation. As it is meant to be by the perpetrators.

What's so wrong with that?

The civilians are likely fleeing from places they "should know" are targets, like where the "terrorists" are holed up. So if you are in a pinch for places to bomb, such that you are already bombing targets activated weeks ago that is the best place to bomb, right? Directly behind the (remaining) fleeing civilians?

This account was from nearly 2 weeks ago:

"The airstrikes have sent the people of densely populated Gaza on a zigzagging desperate search for safer ground — hard to find with no way out of the blockaded territory.

"I don't know what's safe anymore," said university student Rasha Khaldeh of Gaza City. She fled her home, fearing Israel would target her Hamas neighbors, then had to leave her uncle's house because of nearby shelling. She listens intently for the approach of pilotless Israeli drones."

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I'm not such a bad guy once you get to know me.

An important viewpoint

Emerald Bile has a very cogent thought on this crisis.

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I'm not such a bad guy once you get to know me.