Taylor Marsh live blogs the conference call and she’s got some good things to report:
Geoff Garin: Indiana was a close outcome, but they feel very, very good. First time Clinton has come from behind to achieve a primary victory. Amidst a huge amount of spending from Obama, Clinton won. The Chicago media market was over 20% of the state and gave Obama a substantial head start. Eight points down with 10 days to go, then winning by 2 points, represents “significant progress” and is a “good victory under challenging circumstances.” Obama called it a “tie breaker state,” so we feel good about the victory
(Though I’d like a link on the polling, I think that the argument that teh ground in IN was not favorable to Hillary is a good one. Yet she won.)
As Violet Socks asks “Why are you all letting the haka dictate reality?” Good question! And to answer it:
0. I’m not. I’ve purged my reading list of the Bullshit Class. These are my own feelings, not feelings engineered by the Boiz.
1. Though I like Garin’s frame, the slow count in Gary brought up old, very bad, very doomstruck feelings of FL 2000 and OH 2004 both. And arnouncing the “bonus delegates” on the day of the primary itself was a nice little kick in the teeth from the DNC.
2. Presumably, the OFB
and our famously free press have the knobs cranked up to 11 on WWTSBQ. I always do so look forward to shoveling back the tide of shit!
3. I thought Hillary would do better in IN, and force our famously free press to admit that, if only for a minute, as after PA. Though IN was a win, it wasn’t a win by the margin I’d hoped for: A real stomping.
4. Every race, we get a better view of the nature of the Democratic Party. It’s not a pretty sight. I know politics ain’t beanbag, but.
5. I’m hungover and tired.
Now, what Hillary is doing is sucking it up and hitting the trail. What I’m hoping for in WV and KY is that since they are uncontested — Mr. Unity is telling two more states that he doesn’t need them as part of the new coalition — that Hillary can stretch out a little and give us more big picture stuff. The conversations are great, but this is an opportunity for a national conversation — the opportunity that Barack “No Mas” Obama did not take.
Finally, let’s remember that this year, nobody knows anything, and that includes us. As I try to model the two campaigns, I’ve concluded that they have very different models of what a party should be. Now, if you believe Krugman’s discovery that politics has driven economics, and not the other way round, that may imply that the differences between the two candidates are not, in fact, marginal, but critical.
So, let’s suck it up and get moving. WV and KY present new opportunities, the press sucks, the Boiz suck, and nobody knows anything. Paradoxically, the slow count in Gary makes me all the more determined to never give up, and never surrender.
Oh, and one interesting result of this set of primaries is that the Unity Pony is, if not dead, in need of immediate artificial respiration. Now that is a win!
NOTE If anybody has any YouTubes of especially egregious WWTSBQ, pleae send the links or post. Examples of gross sexism of craven opportunism gratefully accepted! At some point, we’re going to need a Hall of Shame…
UPDATE AP:
Hillary Rodham Clinton says she will remain in the presidential race “until there’s a nominee.” The former first lady declined to say whether that meant through the roll call of the states at the Democratic National Convention this summer.
Money’s tight, too…
Front page
What I wouldn't give...
… for you to completely pwn me on “I told you sos.”
Fuck 'em if they can't take a joke
I haven’t checked the Boiz. Has the wankfest on the gas tax mysteriously died down? Because if it has, that means it worked.
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
Lambert, Lambert; those bonus delegates
were decided in February of 2007, by formula. The formula applied equally to all states. NC decided when to hold its primary, and that in turn decided the number of bonus delegates awarded. That a newspaper article just now mentioned them is not proof that they were just now announced by the DNC. That simply is not true.
I understand your frustrations right now, and Goddess knows I understand hangovers, but perpetuating a demonstrable falsehood will not help your case. It weakens you.
Let go of this one. Please.
And yes, agreed; suck it up and keep moving.
8 points down?
“Eight points down with 10 days to go, then winning by 2 points, represents “significant progress” and is a “good victory under challenging circumstances.””
8 points down with 10 days to go? Please find me such a poll:
http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-P…
By my count, 10 days before the election would be April 26, 2008. On polls covering that date, the results were:
TeleResearch: 4/25-29/08 48/38 Clinton +10
PPP (D) 4/26-27/08 50/42 Clinton +8
SurveyUSA 4/25-27/08 52/43 Clinton +9
This is a lousy argument unless you want to fool people who don’t know any better. Let’s try to stick to reality here. As the chart on that page clearly shows, Clinton has been ahead of Obama in nearly every poll since Mid-March.
Internal Polling!
Ah, the always reliable “internal polling” that the Clinton campaign had done:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch…
Of course, they do cite public polling:
“So Hillary’s victory in Indiana – fought out against the backdrop of an ailing economy – is all the more incredible. We started out behind in both the public and internal polls.
For example, our March 13 poll showed Hillary trailing by 8 points, while our latest poll gave Hillary a 5 point lead.”
What is this public polling? Is it 10 days ago or March 13? Was this the poll they were talking about? What does any of this discussion have anything to do with delegate counts?
AB, your candidate got beat in Indiana
Deal with it.
Obama can’t win the Democratic primaries in big states that Democrats will need in to win in November. How will he win them then?
According to folks like you Obama is supposedly the odds-on favorite to win the nomination, leading in every category, represents the future while his opponent represents the past, and yet he just can’t put her away. Chance after chance, and he just can’t pull out a win when he needs it; just can’t find a way to seal the deal. Some hero.
Go lick your wounds. Nobody wants to hear you whine.
Until 3-4 weeks ago every poll I saw
had Obama ahead in Indiana and way ahead in NC.
When Hillary won big in PA the OFB
said “Yeah, but she started way ahead, and Obama closed the gap. He’ll make up the lost ground in NC where he’s going to blow her out.”
Obama himself said that Indiana was the “tiebreaker”
Until last night, I didn’t hear any bloviating gasbags (including Timmeh) saying that Hillary “must win NC” or she was through.
And we knew we would see the latest edition of WWTSBQ
.
So I say fuck ’em! It ain’t over ’til it’s over.
I’m not drinking any damn kool-aid.
————————————————————————
Real ponies don’t oink- Patrick McManus
Bringiton, that's not true
Some of us enjoy hearing the OFB
whine when they lose. Not me personally, heaven forbid, but I have heard it said….
It just struck me… That I dangled this bait but forgot to write your name on it ;-)
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
Bringiton, Dull Normal
I do not understand. Clicked on the link, nothing appears that relates to me - that I can grok. What is the bait?
Besides, I just put up a long and thoughtful text with lots of areas for disagreement. All this happy-wappy everybody-getting-along good humor here is sicky-sweet enough to make me puke. ;-)
I'm For The Democratic Party. Period
Sorry bringiton, but you’re going to have to do better than that. Please don’t project your emotional train wreck on me.
As an initial matter, why do you think I would be having a hard time dealing with “it”? Obama supporters are jubilant today. Across the board, all I hear is “finally! Clinton can’t deny it any longer.” I simply have no idea why you think any fan of Obama would be upset today.
Personally, unlike many here it seems, I knew exactly what the polls were saying and it appeared that Obama had little chance of winning in Indiana. He did better than the polls predicted. So, if I was emotionally wedded to Obama like “folks like you” are to Clinton, I’d be very happy with the Indiana results. Indeed, go to DailyKos. Does anyone there seem upset to you?
Secondly, as you may have noticed, the media narrative is that it is now over based on last night’s results. George McGovern, friend and long time supporter of the Clintons has said she should drop out. And long time supporter Diane Feinstein said, “I think the race is reaching the point now where there are negative dividends from it, in terms of strife within the party,” Feinstein said. “I think we need to prevent that as much as we can.”” She sees the writing on the walls.
Consequently, Obama’s percentage in Indiana and NC was enough to push the narrative deep into the “it’s time” category. As a result, if I was emotionally attached to Obama as you seem to think, I too would be jubilant.
I’m sorry if pointing out facts and reality to you has the appearance of sour grapes or whining. Instead of trying to read my mind and/or emotional state, feel free to disprove my comments about poll results in Indiana and to show me the poll that had Clinton down 8 points 11 days ago.
In any case, I don’t care who wins as long as it’s a Democrat. I like them both. I just want it to end. When Clinton was the presumptive nominee back in the Fall of 2007, I was fine with that. She’s smart and tough and I agree with her on most issues.
Why do I want it to end? Well, this blog and the many commenters are a good example of the destructiveness that happens when irrational folks get emotionally tied to a particular candidate. Continuing this contest has “negative dividends from it, in terms of strife within the party.”
I along with other Democrats saw the writing on the wall a while ago that Obama had an insurmountable lead barring events that were nothing more than a Clinton fan’s wishful thinking. I also appreciated the negative dividends of continuing the race.
In fact, this blog has been a case study in these negative dividends. As I posted in another thread today, just two months ago, people were shocked that anyone would suggest not voting for a Democrat in the fall.
Now? Not so much. Lambert has changed his signature and Paul_Lukasiak said he won’t vote. A whole host of people are freaking out now that their favored candidate is not going to win. They’re so despondent dealing with the inevitable, they’d rather have four more years of Bush. That’s negative dividends.
(Although I should say it’s fascinating to watch the Kübler-Ross grief cycle play itself out. Today has been a mix of depression and testing. Bargaining is on its last legs.)
“Obama can’t win the Democratic primaries in big states that Democrats will need in to win in November. How will he win them then?”
Better Clinton supporters please. Seriously. This line of argument has been laughingly discredited so many times that I’m wondering if you’re kidding.
“According to folks like you [Haha! That’s a great line] Obama is supposedly the odds-on favorite to win the nomination [That’s an entertaining use of “supposedly”], leading in every category, represents the future while his opponent represents the past, and yet he just can’t put her away. Chance after chance, and he just can’t pull out a win when he needs it; just can’t find a way to seal the deal. Some hero.”
You’re regurgitating months old talking points in a wholly incoherent matter. It just doesn’t make any sense. “Hero”? Huh? It’s about delegates. Period. He has more than Clinton and Clinton has no chance of catching him. Go ahead play around with it:
http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/
Just because some Obama supporters are as nonsensical as your rambling, doesn’t mean everyone on the Internet is. Save your irrelevant and nonsensical talking points.
For example, Obama won NC last night by a lot. Enough to change the media narrative. And you’re still pulling out this “win when he needs it” nonsense? Again, better Clinton supporters please.
myiq2xu: “Until 3-4 weeks ago every poll I saw … had Obama ahead in Indiana and way ahead in NC.”
No offense, but what you happened to see is irrelevant given that Pollster.com and other sites collect polling data and can show you exactly what the polls were showing at the time. There was no 8 point deficit 11 days ago even if you consider Clinton’s internal polling.
"Irrational folks get emotionally tied ..."
or “cling to,” right?
Thanks for your concern. Don’t go for the ambassaorship!
1. Actually, threatening not to support the Democratic nominee seems to hav worked out very well for Obama’s constituency. So, if inflicting fear and pain on the Dems is the the way to get their attention, then so be it. It worked very well for them, so the fact that you want the race to end is all the more reason for me to want the race to continue. That pony left the stable a long time ago. Maybe, in all his free time not campaigning in WV and KY, Obama could fix his broken health care plan, and not demagog on mandates any more?
2. A_B writes:
To begin with, if a “whole host” of people are freaking out, then I would say it behooves you to advocate for your concerns in a more constructive fashion than calling them “irrational.” Eh? Who would want to work with irrational people? And who would want them in their party?
There are actually two components, in my mind, to the change: Call them the who and the how. Who is really what: The what of policy. I vehemently disagree with Obama on universal health care, and I think the Unity
schtick is a total crock, I’ve thought his claims on Iraq where a fake, but I didn’t change my sig until today. Why?
You may say I changed my sig because of IN. And it’s true that IN was the precipitating factor in my reaction. But the components of the reaction where formed not from the who (“their favored candidate”) but from the how. There’s the how of FL and M. That’s stuck in my craw for a long, long time. Bringiton may advocate as he will, and he’s got a strong case, but as a human right, a Democratic Party should be trying to count people’s votes, not avoid counting them. There’s the how of the misogny. And there’s especially the how of smearing [not Obama] supporters as racists. The doctored “War Room” video, which pro-Obama A listers posted without checking its provenance or getting a transcript, and which went viral in IN, was the icing on the cake for the how. The slow count in Gary — with the missing voter machine cartridges — may turn out to be innocent, but it sure didn’t help matters. So yeah, I care about process, and this process stinks. (The constant yammer of inaccuracies from the OFB
about the rules didn’t help matters either.)
It’s the how that did it, not the who. I’ll vote for the guy, just like I said. So, it’s all a question of how I invest my time, isn’t it?
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
Good try AB, but no cigar
I said 3-4 weeks ago, that’s 21-28 days. You counter with an average of polls from 11 days ago. I may not be “creative” but I can do basic math.
” … we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender …”- Winston Churchill
Awww
I just want it to end.
translation:
I’ve already voted, and how anyone else feels is unimportant. Stop voting!!! Who cares if you still have time left to vote, nobody cares about your opinion.
And Feinstein and McGovern are stupid. Have they been asleep since 2000? The media has been dying to have McCain as a presidential candidate. The longer the media is distracted from fluffing McCain, the better. Clinton and Obama are doing that. Once the nominee is decided, the media will be doing all they can to help McCain, and the less time they have to make a Republican palatable this election season, the more likely we will have a Democratic president. I have a lot of faith, in either candidate to win back voters, I just think some of Clinton’s are more likely to go to McCain, than Obama’s are.
If you’re tired, go complain to someone who cares. Other complaints about the campaign season are valid, but we don’t care that you want it over, others don’t, and as long as there are votes left to be counted, they win. But, now at least I know why FL & MI don’t bother you at all.
Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!
Re: Irrational - The majority is always sane
So sayeth Nessus
——————————————————————
” … we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender …”- Winston Churchill
Lambert: Where's my dangly bit?
Er, “dangled bait”.
I may or may not snap at it, but I hate not being able to see it.
Bits...
It might not be your thing; but I did think it cried out for a thorough demolition of claims made, despite the sociological interest….
here, at “I canvassed…”
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
1 of 2 Red States do NOT make it an Obama win, &
certainly should be raising more questions about him than about her—-over and over and over he fails to “unify” the party—let alone the country—and in fact does the opposite.
He should have been able to sweep every remaining state weeks if not months ago if what his supporters and the media say is true—-winners actually are supposed to win, you know—and since it’s over according to so many, he better win every single remaining state, no matter what kind of population mix is there.
If he can’t, he’s no winner now — or in November.
And yet....
He gets a free pass for not contesting WV and KY. Why? Everybody knows he can’t win them! The mind reels…
[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.