UPDATE: I’ve created some new tables that show how much of the undecided vote the candidates need to win each state.

The lastest SUSA national poll provides a lot of food for thought in terms of how the general election campaign will shape up. While the polls both predict close electoral college victories for Clinton and Obama, there is a big difference between “too close to call” states (margin 3% or less), “swing” state (margin 4-6%), “battleground” states (margins 7-12%), and fairly “safe” states (margins 13% or more).  Read more 

So the primaries draw near and people who are not political junkies are starting to pay attention. Numbers are shifting wildly in unexpected directions. Not a vote has been cast yet and it’s anybody’s race.

Who do you think is going to be the Democratic nominee, and who on the Republican side? Not who you WANT to win, who do you think WILL win? Take off your preferences hat and put on the cold green eyeshade of the oddsmaker.

Optional bonus round: what matchup would be the most interesting to watch play out? Hillary vs. Guiliani? Obama vs. Huckabee? Edwards vs. Romney? Some variant of the above?

Note: Al. Gore. Is. Not. Running. Please do not cite him in any of the questions posed above. However for an optional bit of amusement,  Read more