[UPDATE: I've included a post from Registan with a totally different take] I confess to great ignorance, when it comes to this conflict and the region in general. But Sean-Paul's latest makes great sense to me.

"Where's NATO?"

I remember the conversation so clearly, as if it happened yesterday. I was meeting with Alex Rondeli, a tall, smart, well-connected Georgian involved in the formation of the country's foreign policy. Everyone interested in the foreign policy of the region, I was told, who traveled to Tbilisi, had to meet with him. So I did. Obviously I don't have my notes of the interview with me, as they are in storage back home in America, but I remember when the conversation turned towards NATO and America helping Georgia. Alex was clear that he thought, from a rational, realpoplitik perspective, that Georgia's best hope was in joining the West and all its institutions. But he was also realistic enough to realize that Georgia had to find a way of living with its giant northern neighbor.

And I asked him, point blank, "what makes you think the US will keep its promise to Georgia in the event of war with Russia? Can you really trust the US?" And then I made it clear, before he answered, that I thought it was folly to trust the US, that Georgia's best course was to find a modus vivendi with Russia and develop its economy on its own terms because the Russians aren't going away.

They haven't. Now they are attempting to split the country. And Georgians are wondering, where is NATO? NATO isn't coming. Deal with it. Read more…