NH primary

Polls, Results and Voting Machines in NH

C’mon, it wouldn’t be me if I didn’t post this. So I guess a lot of folks are wiping egg off their faces this morning? Heh. I have no real insight into “what the results mean,” except to say Never Count Hillary Out. For a lot of reasons. Our good friend Brad continues on his one man crusade to document the irregularities of videopoker voting. Just keep it in mind, OK? He has no evidence of wrong doing at this time, but on the other hand it’s too early to know for sure and the crusaders haven’t had a chance to compare hand counted totals with machine totals. They will be doing so soon.

The point is that there are many reasons for an 8-point turnaround such as the one Clinton got last night. Could be that pollsters were push-polling to get the results they wanted. Could be women responded to “crying Hillary” and felt motivated to come to her defense. Could be that white voters lied about their willingness to vote for a black man. Could be that Hillary’s campaign is way more effective than some suspected, while Obama’s is weaker than those same folks have been saying.

Bottom line: 8 points is a huge margin, statistically speaking. It’s worth examining, in excruciating detail and with an open and critical mind. I don’t expect the SCLM to do so, indeed I’m sure the only thing we’ll get from them is more mythical narratives that have nothing to do with reality and everything to do with Village-speak. But for the foily among us, keeping an eye on machine results is never a bad idea.