polls

A Global View of the Interactive Voter Choice System

By

Joseph M. Firestone

We Americans have a problem. We're supposed to be a democracy responsive to the people. But polls show that policies favored by heavy majorities of Americans don't get legislated by either or both parties in Congress. Instead, bills are passed that a majority of people either don't care about, or view as a betrayal of their interests. People believe this is because both major parties are dominated by special interests who provide big money contributions to run their campaigns. In addition to these financial advantages, the major parties have gained control of the electoral system by structuring the rules of the game so that third parties cannot grow and threaten their domination. How can we get around this closed system, and either make the major parties responsive to us, or see to it that third parties can be successful? Read below the fold...

[cross posted at NPR Check]

Yesterday, I heard for the first time on NPR about how the public option has "widespread public support." Here's Melissa Block on Tuesday's ATC: Read below the fold...

Math is funny. It's a mystery to people like me, but one thing I know: when they "figure it out" they more or less, you know, figure it out. That is, while there may be 'other' ways to get to four than 2+2, it's still always true that 2+2 = 4. That's how I look at a lot of polling organizations. Did you make it to 4? Were you close? Not 'now,' but 'after,' when we can all see where they went, the trends and ideas you predicted were ascendant, and how succesful they turned out to be in truth. Read below the fold...

Ladies and Gentleman, please give a warm welcome to Read below the fold...

Real Clear Politics cites from the new Pew poll a couple figures: “69% of Hillary supporters back Obama; 17% say they will vote for McCain; and 12% are undecided.” And “55% of Democratic (and leaning) voters want to see Hillary as Obama's VP."

Digging deeper into the numbers...

**Only 38% said they DON'T want Hillary as VP. You mean the Cheeto doesn't speak for us all?? It’s especially significant that when asked “Would she make you more/less likely to vote” for Barack, it’s a bit of a wash for Republicans at 23/26, but makes a huge difference to capturing Democratic votes, by 34/9. Other factoids: Read below the fold...

[Welcome Political Radar readers. This Memorial Day Weekend, try a round of Obama Golf! --lambert]

PART ONE: ALL VOTERS, GENDER, AND RACE Read below the fold...

On Super Tuesday, over 14% of voters in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary voted for neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama, despite their being the only two major Democratic candidates left in the race. This was nearly twice the percentage of “someone else” votes as the next highest state (Arizona, with 7.2% of “neither” votes), and four times greater than Super Tuesday primary states over all (3.74% “neither” votes). Read below the fold...

Aka Obama’s Sour Apples to Apples, Part Four

Between late February and mid-April, voters in nine states that should/could be “Democratic” in the 2008 Presidential Election were exposed to a considerable amount of negative informative concerning both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The negative information had little impact on how Hillary Clinton was regarded when compared to John McCain. But it has had a major impact on their perception of Barack Obama, and on the perception of the relative merits of Obama and McCain. Read below the fold...

AKA OBAMA'S SOUR 'APPLES TO APPLES', PART THREE: INDEPENDENTS AND MODERATES

In the last six weeks, Barack Obama has been losing support in virtually every key demographic category when matched against John McCain, while Hillary Clinton has gained support. Perhaps most disturbing is Obama’s decline among Independent voters: Between late February and mid-April, in 9 key states for Democrats Read below the fold...

DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW, MALE AND FEMALE VOTERS

In the last six weeks, Barack Obama has been losing support in virtually every key demographic category when matched against John McCain, while Hillary Clinton has gained support. Obama has lost support among men, women, White voters, “Independents”, and “Moderates”, while Clinton has gained support in all those categories.

Obama’s margins against McCain have fallen significantly in all of these categories, while Clinton is “holding her own” in these key categories as previously undecided voters make up their minds. Read below the fold...

Barack Obama is hemmorhaging support against John McCain in states where Democrats can/should win in November. Read below the fold...

Part 4 of Misogyny, Sexism, & the Gender Gap in the 2008 Election

In choosing a nominee, the Democratic Party will not merely be deciding who deserves to win, or who would make the best candidate. It will also be a decision about which poisoned landscape the Party wishes to compete upon --- one in which toxic wildflowers of misogyny and sexism are in full bloom, or one in which the poisonous weed of racism is a constant part of the environment, and needs the merest watering to completely despoil the land. Read below the fold...

Survey USA, which has been the gold standard of polls this election season, just released their latest results for Pennsylvania.

Hillary leads Obama by 18 points. MyDD has more.

SUSA was the one that correctly predicted Hillary's 10 point win in California when many others showed it to be a close race or even had Obama ahead. Read below the fold...

HOW THE GENDER GAP, SEXISM, AND MISOGYNY CHANGE THE OUTCOME IN INDIVIDUAL STATES Read below the fold...

REGIONAL COMPARISONS & BEST AND WORST STATES

The individual state cross tables from the SUSA 50 state general election poll demonstrate how the gender gap determines the winner in a very large number of states. But there is considerable variation between states themselves and within regions. Much of the variation appears to be related to other factors, such as race and racism, and how liberal/conservative a state is. Read below the fold...