Cheney heads to ex-Soviet nations in show of support

WASHINGTON (AFP) — US Vice President Dick Cheney departs Tuesday on a four-nation tour to support US allies Georgia and Ukraine amid a chill in relations with Russia over its military conflict with Georgia.

Because we don't have enough trouble.

Moon over Alabama:

More seriously, the Russian Federation Army today launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile.

The Topol RS-12M ballistic missile, designed to defeat anti-ballistic missile systems, has hit a designated target at a testing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, said Alexander Vovk, head of the Russian Strategic Missile Troops press service.

This is the really, really serious signal. The Russian Federation can go nuclear if needed. They do not threaten this because they feel strong. They do threaten this because they feel weak.

Don't worry. Everything's going to be fine.

I know there's a big party going on in Denver, but things seem to be equally hoppin over on the other side of the pond. Cheney is going over there, and that makes me worried. Russia says 'bring it on, bitches! We've got your oil/gas, and can turn it off anytime.

The G7 — Britain, the US, France, Canada, Germany, Italy and Japan — said in a statement released by the US State Department: “We deplore Russia’s excessive use of military force in Georgia and its continued occupation of parts of Georgia.”

 Read more…

[UPDATE: I've included a post from Registan with a totally different take] I confess to great ignorance, when it comes to this conflict and the region in general. But Sean-Paul's latest makes great sense to me.

"Where's NATO?"

I remember the conversation so clearly, as if it happened yesterday. I was meeting with Alex Rondeli, a tall, smart, well-connected Georgian involved in the formation of the country's foreign policy. Everyone interested in the foreign policy of the region, I was told, who traveled to Tbilisi, had to meet with him. So I did. Obviously I don't have my notes of the interview with me, as they are in storage back home in America, but I remember when the conversation turned towards NATO and America helping Georgia. Alex was clear that he thought, from a rational, realpoplitik perspective, that Georgia's best hope was in joining the West and all its institutions. But he was also realistic enough to realize that Georgia had to find a way of living with its giant northern neighbor.

And I asked him, point blank, "what makes you think the US will keep its promise to Georgia in the event of war with Russia? Can you really trust the US?" And then I made it clear, before he answered, that I thought it was folly to trust the US, that Georgia's best course was to find a modus vivendi with Russia and develop its economy on its own terms because the Russians aren't going away.

They haven't. Now they are attempting to split the country. And Georgians are wondering, where is NATO? NATO isn't coming. Deal with it.

 Read more…

Cross-posted from The Global Sociology Blog.

It is pretty clear that Russia and Georgia are at war (see excellent background article here). It is not like there were no warning signs that Russia did not enjoy having its power challenged, as happened with the independence of Kosovo where the UN ignored Russia's opposition and went ahead with support for the new republic over its objections. Then, a few weeks ago, I posted on the fact that it seemed that Russia was engaging in a new Cold War in an attempt to reclaim some global military leadership. The invasion of parts of Georgia in support of independent movements in Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia should be read in that context.

As usual, I find Michael Mann's conceptualization of different forms of power useful to understand what is going on here. As Jonathan Steele puts it in the Guardian, this is not just an economic war, a "pipeline war", but a war of political influence. Political power, more than economic, might be at work here:

War is always about money, in the end. I'm way behind on my newsreading, and so I totally missed this until this morning. At least some civilians are being allowed to flee. What's at stake here? Who are the key players? And Thanks, Chimpy, for opening the Pandora's Box of "wars of choice are great!" Anyone with details willing the share them, I'm grateful. It bodes ill that he's already using rhetoric like this:

"I must protect the life and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are. We will not allow their deaths to go unpunished,"
Dmitry Medvedev, Russian President

What the hell is going on here?

BEIJING, Dec. 13 (Xinhuanet) -- The sudden disappearance of a number of key witnesses in the Alexander Litvinenko investigation will make it even harder for British detectives, whose inquiry has now spread across five countries, The Times reported Wednesday.

 Read more…

But Bambi is ok, right? Remind me to skip the matinee in Moscow. This is a "funny" post, because Borat is a sensation and all that, but as Antony reminds us:

After the murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya and poisoning of a former Russian spy, the increasingly authoritarian reign of Vladimir Putin is cause for concern.

Russia: not getting better. Don't forget that; they have oil, nukes, and crazies, just like we do.

I know next to nothing about Russian/Georgian relations. I do know energy resources are at the heart of how they deal with each other. This can't be good:

MOSCOW, Oct. 2 (Xinhua) -- Russia cannot rule out military action in dealing with mounting tensions with neighboring Georgia, the daily Kommersant reported on Monday.

"All diplomatic steps that are usually taken in such strained relations have been exhausted ... The next action could be the breaking of diplomatic relations and a military operation," the report warned, quoting an unnamed source with Russia's Defense Ministry.

Relations between Moscow and Tbilisi have been increasingly strained since Georgian authorities arrested four Russian officers last week, charging them with spying activities.

Russia has recalled its ambassador in Tbilisi and evacuated itscitizens.

 Read more…

I've never been able to closely follow Russian politics, lacking the languages and proper appreciation of their history as I do. But one thing I'm fairly sure of: Russia today is a perfect model for the study of when the Thugs are In Charge:

Slander Could Be Deemed Extremist

By Oksana Yablokova and Anatoly Medetsky
Staff Writers
The State Duma will soon vote on a bill that would allow courts to shut down parties and news organizations for slandering government officials or threatening possible mass protests, deputies said Thursday.

The Duma's leadership decided Thursday to send the bill -- which includes amendments to expand the list of punishable crimes under the anti-extremism law -- to the president and the Cabinet for a review, Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov said.

 Read more…