Thai Elections 2011: The Surprising Rise of the Massage Tycoon

MsExPat's picture

Soon after arriving in Bangkok earlier this week, I knew that Thai PM Ahbisit Vijayjiva was in trouble. Not because I spotted several of his election campaign posters with moustaches scribbled on his mug, or with tree branches poked up his larger-than-life nostrils. Not because his leading competition is a very pretty young woman with expensive and savvy image handlers, Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of Thaksin ("She's my clone," Thaksin has, helpfully, told the Thai press).

No, I knew that Ahbisit was in trouble when my new friend--let's call him Suphat--told me he was planning to vote for this guy, Chuvit Kamolsivit:

Chuvit is the protest candidate in this Thai election, which takes place on July 2. He's certainly the most colorful figure. His poster campaign reminds me a lot of my pal Long Hair in Hong Kong, except that Long Hair is an ideologue, a committed socialist and Chuvit is...well, for all the juicy details, you should check this excellent rundown by Australian academic Chris Baker.

The short version is that Chuvit's made a fortune in Bangkok soap massage parlors, i.e. bubble bath brothels. His campaign message is simple: He's against corruption. Chuvit is an expert on the topic of corruption, because he had to pay the Bangkok police millions to keep his businesses open and running.

Right now, Bangkok has a real circus feel to it. Normally, when you ride down the streets, the only advertising images you see are commercial or nationalist in message--enormous posters of King Bhumibol and his family.

But now and for the next couple of weeks, every road, every corner, every blank space (except for the area around the King's palace) is plastered with long vinyl flat banners plugging the numerous candidates and parties that are trying to grab some of the 375 constituency seats and 125 party seats in Thailand's parliament.

The Thai system somewhat mimics the British one, with a small difference. Every Thai citizen gets two votes, one for their local Parliamentary rep, and another for a party. The election system, also, is British in its regulatory zeal. Campaign budgets are so strictly limited under the law that TV or radio media buys are impossible (I think they even may be prohibited, as they are in Hong Kong's election races).

And so, the Thai campaign theater takes to the streets. The image on your posters is the image that voters take to the polls. And so far, at least in Bangkok, the king of the posters is Chuvit.

To give you some context, here are some of the standard-issue politico posters I have spotted along Bangkok streets this week:

Contrast these with Chuvit's greatest hits (some with rough translations, courtesy of my not-quite-English speaking friend Song):

(Check the detail: he's shaking his pit bull's hand. Song says that the message of the poster is "trust"--you can trust your dog more than a politican these days)

(The government, says Chuvit, is steering the wrong way!)

(My personal favorite! Talk about a twist on the traditional politician baby-kissing. Chuvit's message is: the baby's diaper needs a change, and so does the Thai government).

Chuvit recently sat for an interview in English with a reporter from the Bangkok Post. If the reporter seems a bit tentative in his questioning, well, there's a reason. Two years ago, in the middle of an interview with another reporter, Chuvit decided he didn't like the journo's line of questioning, so he punched him.

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But surely, I hear you saying (or thinking) Bangkok's Chuvit-mania is mere sideshow, a down-the-card distraction to the main bout between incumbent Ahbisit and Thaksin's proxy Yingluck Shinawatra.

And I'd think so too. Except that Suphat, a well educated and hip middle class professional (whose brother is one of Ahbisit's top ministers!) told me he was planning to vote for Chuvit. And--to my astonishment--the Issan husband of my friend Song (a Red Shirt sympathizer) also told me the same thing! Chuvit love leaps across class boundaries.

Now, saying that you're going to vote for the outrageous, ex-criminal, maverick opposition candidate doesn't mean you're actually going to do it. Chuvit's poll numbers are running on the low side. There are three weeks still until the Thai election, plenty of time for anything to happen, for voters to turn to a "serious" candidate at the last minute

But the success of the Chuvit poster series with the Bangkok public means that people, at least in the capital, aren't going along with the official program. They're fed up with the corruption and lies from all the big guns in Thailand's political establishment: Red Shirts (yes, they're establishment, too), Yellow Shirts, Democrats, royalists. I believe that if Thailand is going to move forward, they do have to re-start the political clock at zero, and maybe a declaration that it's time to throw all the bums out is the first step.

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okanogen's picture

I would get ready for Chuvit!

An excellent post, this is just great, local reporting. I would trust your gut.

The same thing happened here in Minnesota when Jesse Ventura ran for governor. He was polling badly, far behind the Republican and Democratic candidates. The Democrat was Skip Humphrey, Hubert's son. He was old, established, competent, well-liked, but lackluster. The Republican was Norm Coleman, who had recently flipped from being a Democrat, he ran a bumbling campaign, constantly seeking to prove to the loony right-wing that he was "one of them". The only state-wide office he ever won was when Wellstone died.

Jesse was bombastic, angry, and very, very media savvy. In addition to his wrestling and film career, he had for many years had a local morning call-in radio show, so he was very hooked in to people's frustrations and had years of sounding out different ideas/approaches.

Like I said, he polled badly, right up until Election Day. I thought it would be close between Humphrey and Coleman, and that like usual (and as has happened ever since), the third-party candidate would slip off the back as "reasonable" people voted their previous patterns.

But I knew he won mid-way through election day when I asked a woman friend and colleague at work who she voted for. She was a young hip professional, highly-educated (much like the person you mention) and would have almost certainly been a Democrat vote, but she voted for Ventura saying "Oh, but he will never win". I replied that yes, he would, because you (someone like you) voted for him. And he did, by a substantial margin. No recount necessary.

As I said, trust your gut MsExPat: I'm betting you are right, the dynamic seems eerily familiar.

Sorry, I don't fall in love with politicians. I'm not that desperate.....

lambert's picture

Brilliant comparison to Ventura

Thanks for this!

First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Mahatma Gandhi

MsExPat's picture

My gut is telling me that Chuvit is spoiler, not winner

It's really hard to know the extent of his support, because few polls even bother to list his party, Rak Prathet Thai, and the ones that do give him less than 2 percent of the vote. (Scroll down to the end of the Wiki entry for the numbers, which are several weeks old).

I think Chuvit is an urban, Bangkok phenomenon. People here are burnt out and don't like either of the two main candidates, and can you blame them? On one hand you have Ahbisit, who's flubbing and flobbing over so many things--the most crucial of which, IMO, is finding out just who shot those innocent people in the temple at the end of the Red Shirt demos.

On the other hand, you have Yingluck/Thaksin, and, well, Thailand's been there done that.

So: some Bangkokers will toss one, or maybe both, of their votes to Chuvit. And those votes will, largely, come out of Ahbisit's piece of the electorate. (As in the case of my friend, who is a relative of Abhisit's minister). Since the Puea Thai (Thaksin) party can count on the unswerving allegiance of people in northern Thailand, that means: advantage Thaksin.

Oh, and yes, when my friend he told me he was going to vote for Chuvit, he said these very words: "My district is solidly Democrat (for Ahbisit), so I can vote for Chuvit and it won't make a difference....."

okanogen's picture

Department of Eerie Historical Parallels!

"My district is solidly Democrat (snip) and it won't make a difference....."

Sorry, I don't fall in love with politicians. I'm not that desperate.....

danps's picture

Another great post, MsExPat

I've really enjoyed your posts on Thai elections. Thanks much for keeping us up to date!

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