The beatings will continue until morale improves

Torture works!

McClatchy:

The credit crunch also sent [note lack of agency] some of the nation's largest employers to Capitol Hill to twist lawmakers' arms. They hope that the House will follow the Senate's lead and pass the controversial Wall Street rescue package on Friday. The House rejected the measure on Monday, 228-205.

"Microsoft strongly urges members of the U.S. House of Representatives to reconsider and to support legislation that will re-instill confidence and stability [note lack of agency] in the financial markets," said Brad Smith, the Redmond, Wash., software giant's general counsel, in an e-mail to lawmakers. "This legislation is vitally important to the health and preservation of jobs [note lack of agency] in all sectors of the economy of Washington State and the nation, and we urge Congress to act swiftly."

Forest-products giant Weyerhaeuser Co. told lawmakers in an e-mail that failure to approve the bill would threaten the broader economy.

"The current tight credit market [note lack of agency] is a significant barrier to functioning capital markets, new home construction and capital intensive businesses," wrote Heidi Biggs Brock, a company vice president. "This further aggravates the impacts of the already depressed housing market which is a significant market for Weyerhaeuser — from timberlands and residential wood products businesses to our homebuilding companies."

Corporate titans weren't the only ones pressing lawmakers. Dyke Messinger, CEO of Power Curbers Inc., told reporters near the Capitol that he'd laid off two thirds of his work force at a machinery manufacturing plant in Salisbury, N.C., because of the credit crisis.

"We don't have the work because our American customers can't get the credit [note lack of agency] to buy our construction machinery," Messinger said.

And giving Hank Paulson's golfing buddies $700 billion solves this problem how? Nobody can explain, except by shouting "confidence" and waving their hands. But if the giveaway were going to work, it would already have worked, as Stirling points out:

The Break the glass plan is being greeted with jeers by actual investors, even as virtually every political elite perjures himself to pass it.

Yeppers.

If you were a banker, and you could get the government you own to give you a trillion dollars, no strings attached, wouldn't that be worth inflicting a little pain on other people?

The question answers itself. And one reason it answers itself is the dog that isn't barking in the night: Why the "credit crunch" is happening now, and how the trillion will stop it. I'd argue the only "why" is "because they can," and the only "how" because we gave the torturers what they want.

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I closed your italics

n/t

Thanks!

Even I am not immune.

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

"Power Curbers, Inc"

Alas, not of the sort we need.

Some might say it's not the sort of "Dyke Messinger" we need, either, but that's a local matter.

NYTimes article finds smoking gun/root cause for Big $hit Pile?

Heard discussion on WNYC of NYTimes front page article about SEC decision taken in 2004 which permitted higher leverage ratios (Heh, I typoed "rations," which also works) for the Big Banker Boiz.

...decisions made at a brief meeting on April 28, 2004, explain why the problems could spin out of control. The agency’s failure to follow through on those decisions also explains why Washington regulators did not see what was coming.
...
They [The Big Banker Boiz} wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses on their investments. Those funds could then flow up to the parent company, enabling it to invest in the fast-growing but opaque world of mortgage-backed securities; credit derivatives, a form of insurance for bond holders; and other exotic instruments.

The five investment banks led the charge, including Goldman Sachs, which was headed by Henry M. Paulson Jr. Two years later, he left to become Treasury secretary.

A lone dissenter — a software consultant and expert on risk management — weighed in from Indiana with a two-page letter to warn the commission that the move was a grave mistake. He never heard back from Washington.

One commissioner, Harvey J. Goldschmid, questioned the staff about the consequences of the proposed exemption. It would only be available for the largest firms, he was reassuringly told — those with assets greater than $5 billion.

“We’ve said these are the big guys,” Mr. Goldschmid said, provoking nervous laughter, “but that means if anything goes wrong, it’s going to be an awfully big mess.” (My emphasis)

See, they knew even back then the name would be Big Me$$!

It's 3 NYTimes web site pages, but they're chockablock with interesting (alarming, telling, scarifying, should be nullifying the Paulson Fix Is In) details.

The 2004 decision also reflected a faith that Wall Street’s financial interests coincided with Washington’s regulatory interests.

“We foolishly believed that the firms had a strong culture of self-preservation and responsibility and would have the discipline not to be excessively borrowing,” said Professor James D. Cox, an expert on securities law and accounting at Duke School of Law (and no relationship to Christopher Cox).

“Letting the firms police themselves made sense to me because I didn’t think the S.E.C. had the staff and wherewithal to impose its own standards and I foolishly thought the market would impose its own self-discipline. We’ve all learned a terrible lesson[Ya think?],” he added. (My emphasis)

And for this they deserve $Billions--$Trillions??

If House reps haven't read this they should prior to voting. Bizarro World, brought to you by Repubs in Power and Blind Faith in the Magic Hand of the Market.

There's an audio link of the meeting at the Times article site.

This could be a post, jawbone

And if you want bonus points, find that computer and risk analysis guy in Indiana and point to his work. That would really help with the "Nobody could have predicted..." talking point...

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

leonard bole, computer guy in indiana

this is the only link i found on the computer guy in indiana --

A lone voice of dissent in the 2004 proceeding came from the software consultant from Indiana, who said that the computer models run by the companies - and that the regulators would be relying on - could not anticipate moments of severe market turbulence.

"With the stroke of a pen, capital requirements are removed!" the consultant, Leonard Bole, wrote to the SEC on Jan. 22, 2004. "Has the trading environment changed sufficiently since 1997, when the current requirements were enacted, that the commission is confident that current requirements in examples such as these can be disregarded?"

He said that similar computer standards had failed to protect Long-Term Capital Management, the hedge fund that collapsed in 1998, and were unable to protect companies from the market plunge of October 1987.

Here's the letter Leonard D. Bole sent to the SEC, 1/22/04--

HTML version. Has some econ terms I'm not familiar with--any econ types who can read to see if there's more there than the quotes from the NYTimes?

var, cse, front page posting [for jawbone]

[the first attempt to submit this comment seems to have evaporated into the ehter. apologies if it somehow shows up twice after all]

posting to your blog / the front page [from the correntewire operating manual]

Simple: Five steps to post

If you aren’t logged in, enter your name and password in the login boxes at lower right, then click the login button. Now that you are logged in:

1. Look for your name in the right sidebar. Right below it is an orange link reading “Post to my blog.” Click it.

2. In the new page that appears, go down to the “Options” box. If you want the first part of your post to appear on the front page (and the rest in your blog) check the box that says “Promoted to front page.” If you want your post to be sticky (like this blue ruled box at the top of the main page), check “Sticky at top of lists.” ignore step 2

3. Go down to the “Title” box and enter a title.

4. Go down to the “Body” box and enter the main part of your post [this is where c&p the comment/s that lambert wants you to post], making sure it’s at least 10 characters long. For now, just use text with two returns between each para.

5. Scroll past everything else and press Submit.

Your new post will appear on a new page. There will be tabs at the top of the page. If you wish to edit your post, or experiment with new features, click the “Edit” tab.

Voila! You have just posted to the front page! easy as pie! [actually, if you want to know the truth, i did my first few posts at 3am so nobody, well hardly anybody, could see that it took me, like, 5 tries to get it right.] you can always go back later and add in tags, departments, threads, etc, if you want to, but you don't have to do any of those if you don't want to.

---------------

i found this to be the best overall description of the regulation that the commission came up with back in april 2004. nb: 'holding company' = cse = 'consolidated supervised entity'.

i like investopedia's description of var; here's more at wikipedia.

gee, whodathunkit, but maybe the cse program was a stupid idea after all.

------------------

i'll take a stab at describing what it looks like to me, but first a couple of disclaimers: 1. what i know about risk analysis could dance on the head of a pin alongside the angels, and 2. what little mathematical modeling i've done has been in obscure little corners of chemistry and physics, and i haven't even done any actual math in years -- nowadays i just plug numbers into the computer and i only have to know enough about the real world to decide if the computer is giving me a stupid answer or not.

i listened to the hearing you linked to, paying attention mostly to just the two times they talked about models. apparently the old rule was that if broker-dealers wanted to use statistical models [presumably to calculate their own capital requirements, rather than let the sec tell them how much capital they had to keep on hand], they had to get them approved first, and had to show the actual models they wanted to use. apparently [and this is another guess on my part], broker-dealers preferred keeping their particular models secret, and in exchange for this, they were willing to consent to increased oversight [broker-dealers and affiliates would join together under a few holding companies, and those holding companies would be subject to regulation].

so, anyhoo, the broker-dealers wanted to essentially use black boxes to calculate how risky their deals were and how much cash they had to keep on hand to cover those deals -- and nyah nyah nyah to the sec for trying to tell them how much capital to keep on hand.

at the same time, changing to the cse/holding company way of organization/regulation fell in line with the way their counterparts in the e.u. financial markets were organized and regulated -- and wah! it's unfair for american companies participating in foreign markets to be required to follow both european regulations and american regulations! this is poppycock, of course, bole points out that multinationals follow mutiple countries' laws and regs all the time [yes, it does cost a bit more to do so].

the american regulations at that time included requiring broker-dealers and/or their holding companies to keep a certain amount of capital on hand. all that lovely capital just sitting around in case something crashed, instead of out working in the marketplace, was anathema to our traders.

leonard bole's argument is that while var calculations are widely used in risk management, they're inadequate for prediction in the case of catastrophic occurences [100-year floods if we're talking climate; black monday 1987 if we're talking stock markets; etc]. he seems ok with the change to a european-style cse structure, but only so long as the regulators continue to be the ones who decide how much capital the traders need to keep on hand -- NOT relying on the traders' estimations of their own risks in making that decision. he points to the failed company long term capital management as his case in point: their var calculations were obviously flawed.

bole's closing paragraph --

Lowering capital charges for US broker dealers in return for greater regulatory control could erode the system that has safeguarded US investors. By all means, work with the large firms to facilitate a level playing field in Europe, but at the same time continue to protect market participants in this country by preserving the safety net afforded by the current capital requirements.

but could the securities and exchange commission be bothered to listen to leonard cassandra bole? heck no! there's money to be made!

argh!

i tried twice to reply here, but something eated it, so i sent you an email. might need to look for it in your spam folder.

I unspammed it

Sometimes that filter is a little overzealous, sorry.

thanks

any possibility that a message could come up saying 'your comment has been sent to the moderation queue' when that happens? right now there's no way to tell if a comment is in moderation or it got eaten by goblins.

Under "Who knew?" place Cox--who took proactive steps to make

oversight more difficult.

From the NYTimes article:

Under Mr. Cox, the commission responded to complaints by some businesses by making it more difficult for the enforcement staff to investigate and bring cases against companies. The commission has repeatedly reversed or reduced proposed settlements that companies had tentatively agreed upon. While the number of enforcement cases has risen, the number of cases involving significant players or large amounts of money has declined.

Mr. Cox dismantled a risk management office created by Mr. Donaldson that was assigned to watch for future problems. While other financial regulatory agencies criticized a blueprint by Mr. Paulson, the Treasury secretary, that proposed to reduce their stature — and that of the S.E.C. — Mr. Cox did not challenge the plan, leaving it to three former Democratic and Republican commission chairmen to complain that the blueprint would neuter the agency.

In the process, Mr. Cox has surrounded himself with conservative lawyers, economists and accountants who, before the market turmoil of recent months, had embraced a far more limited vision for the commission than many of his predecessors.

‘Stakes in the Ground’

Last Friday, the commission formally ended the 2004 program, acknowledging that it had failed to anticipate the problems at Bear Stearns and the four other major investment banks.(My emphasis)

Re: front paging--I have no idea how things are front paged (through the diaries section?), plus I have to leave now for RL stuff. Will be back later or this evening. If someone wants to put it up front, please do so. If so, might want to add the Cox stuff. And, yes, getting input from the "software developer" would be great. There's also an article, in the NYTimes, I think, over the weekend that was mentioned which I haven't had time to track down.

A discussion of the articles on WNYC can be heard here later today.

Merritt B. Fox, professor at Columbia Law School, talks about this morning's New York Times report about a fateful meeting in April 2004 of the Securities and Exchange Commission - in which debt regulations were significantly relaxed for the big investment banks.

Now, gotta run, for real.

I fear we've run out of time to influence the House. But, if they haven't heard of this NYTimes front page bombshell, they or their staffs are, well, missing important input. Or crazy. Or dump like fox.

Hostage Crisis

Years ago, I had the pleasure of hearing the former hostage Terry Anderson speak. One of the things he talked about was how much he owed to his sister for putting constant pressure on the government to keep working for his release, to keep him from being forgotten. As part of this effort, his sister went in often to speak with Lt. Col. Oliver North and demand the Reagan Administration DO SOMETHING! Later, of course, the news would break that one of the things the Reagan Administration did was Iran-Contra.* When Mr. Anderson's sister found out, she told Oliver North, "when I said do something, I didn't mean do something STUPID!"

I'm sure most Americans want Congress to do something. I want them to do something. But I don't want them to do something stupid. This is stupid.

* I realize that the Reagan Administration had many other reasons beyond the hostages to do the Iran-Contra stuff and Anderson was a very bright guy who I'm sure understood that too, but Anderson was speaking about it within the context of his being held hostage.

"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt

Jawbone, that should be a post on the front page. Lambert, yes?

I love this job!

I love this job!

Worth a post

Posts go on the front page until de-front-paged. As Mandos just discovered. So make them good!

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

View from London Banker posted at Roubini's blog--He sees

Paulson's role for the Big Banker Boiz as simlilar to that of Cheney for Halliburton and Blackwater--ensuring increased profits and, now, survival.

Posted at RGE Monitor, the home blog of Nouriel Roubini, this tells it like it is about Paulson's Fix (Is In) and the Big $h*t Pile, now exploding into the Big Me$$.

Having listened to all 42 minutes of the late night Treasury briefing of investment banks on Sunday, there is no doubt in my mind that this legislation represents the sort of federal largesse for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and JPMorgan Chase that the Iraq war provided for Halliburton and Blackwater.

The most cynical moment in the call is when the Treasury official confirms, "our preference would be to help the healthy banks become even healthier" rather than helping troubled banks or illiquid banks.

America is now a centrally planned economy where the Treasury will determine which firms survive and prosper through allocation of scarce capital to an undercapitalised financial sector.

Clearly what is going on here has nothing to do with kick starting the credit markets or stabilising the equity markets or restoring depositor confidence in banks. (Treasury official: "No provision in the legislation that mandates re-lending.") What is going on here is a blatant attempt to provide government funds to a select cadre of firms (not all banks) which are chosen to be the survivors feasting off the carcasses of their less fortunate and less well-connected brethren as the downturn intensifies in the years to come.

The crash in equities will still happen. The debt deflation of the economy leading to mass commercial and consumer credit defaults will still happen. The collapse of many national, regional and local financial institutions will still happen. The bankruptcy of many municipalities and shortfalls in state budgets will still happen.

This bill is about engineering survivor bias to friends of the Bush administration so that they profit disproportionately from the collapse of these markets using the funds provided by the taxpayer via the unreviewable and unconditional authority of the Secretary of the Treasury.

The basic plan is to set up a federal money laundering operation. Bad assets come in, get laundered by the Treasury and put in a new AAA "wrapper" (as it's termed on the call), and good assets go out, issued as Treasury guaranteed securities. Whether the final value of the legislation this week is $700 billion or $150 billion is irrelevant as long as the laundering operation can accommodate the throughput, as that number is only a cap on total extensions at any one time. (My emphasis)

Read the whole thing; it's searing.

Post this, please not just comment!

Please, feel free to use the Hank Paulson and His Merry Banksters riffs. Needs to be post so people link, goes in RSS feeds, etc. Come on!

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

Lambert--HOW? Are there instructions somewhere?

I've looked around the blog topics on top of page---nothing that's meaningful to me.

If you want, email me at cat dot jones at yahoo dot com.

Thanks much!

Tonight the NYTimes article was discussed in great segment by Bill Moyers and guest, Emma Coleman Jordan, a lawyer (must be business law). She found it "bone chilling." Which it is.

More and more this is looking like something which demands Congressional and perhaps criminal investigation.

Over at Moon of AL, some commenters are seeing this as part of a BushCo plan to exert "emergency powers" to stay in power....

Thnx for reply and how-to.

Check your mail

And I'd love to hear about the Moyers show as well.

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

L-Nothing at Yahoo email--did you put the dot between cat and

jones? Checking out soon for, like, sleep

Coleman on Moyers said that the Big Banker Boiz were "coercive," meaning just what we have been saying it means.

They're not only getting too big to fail, but too big to resist and control. Paulson's Fix is in creasing the concentration. I'm waiting for transcript.

The dot is there, yes

I'll send it again. Check your spam filter. Or maybe the NSA is processing it more slowly than usual.

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi