What is the solution to the mess in Iraq? This is a question that I’ve pondered a great deal, and now that we have a Democratic majority, I expect a large number of people are considering anew. I confess: I have almost no hope that there is a way out of Bush’s qWagmire that won’t be painful, bloody, and expensive.

The facts are depressing. I accept the estimate of nearly 700,000 dead Iraqis, and even if it’s half that, we’re still talking about a huge population in Iraq that is angry and vengeance minded. One can hardly blame them. Even if not all of the families of the dead “blame America” for their loss, the sectarian bloodshed seems to me to be so well progressed at this point as to guarantee a generation of conflict at the least. Say what you will about Saddam’s brutality as a dictator, at least he understood the need to keep a lid on the worst kind of violence. I’ve seen more than one joke/cartoon opining that what we need now is a strongman who can run Iraq with an iron fist.

The rebuilding efforts in Iraq have been a sad and pathetic joke. Or the world’s greatest scam to empty the American treasury into the pockets of Dick Cheney’s friends; you make the call. Either way, the billions we’ve spent have resulted in very little to show. There are now a host of books and critical works describing the myriad of failures in the “reconstruction” efforts. I suspect I could post a hundred pages on the topic, and still not list all the people who share the blame in this. I’m greatly encouraged to hear that Democrats plan to hold oversight hearings and bring about some accountability, even as I’m convinced that it will be years, if ever, that Iraqis will enjoy a properly rebuilt nation with the same level of services they had under Saddam. Let us never forget: this is the price we pay for letting ideology rule over reality-based policy. I can’t think of a stronger indictment of the ideologues in the Republican party than the waste, fraud and criminal neglect of the reconstruction efforts.

I’m also frustrated by the lack of intelligent discourse about the complexities of the different groups in Iraq jostling for power. It’s more than Sunni, Shia and Kurd. There are competing theocrats, Iranian backed forces, blatantly self-serving government officials, “jihadists” from all over the globe, and caught in the middle of it all, terrified Iraqi families desperate for the very minimum of security and prosperity. The fighting forces in Iraq have vastly different goals and motivations, and as far as I can tell, few in our military or government have made an attempt to understand that. It’s officially time to retire the notion that “terrorists” are responsible for every gunshot and bombing. The simplicity with which we have considered Iraqi religion and culture has utterly and completely failed as a basis for policy.

I also want to see greater focus on the “government” of Iraq, its weaknesses, failures and corruption need to be exposed and addressed. I’ve read about everything from insurgents infiltrating security forces to parliamentary officials pocketing millions of US aid dollars to shadowy quasi-governments running oil production facilities and sharing none of the money with the people of Iraq. And more. Yes, I’m happy the Iraqis have had a couple of votes, but it appears they have little to show for such “democracy.” Don’t get me started on US led attempts to model the Iraqi Constitution on some Club for Growth fantasy about a libertarian capitalist utopia. Iraq is not the 51st state, and it’s time we listened to the experts who understand what kind of government will actually work in a Muslim, Middle Eastern nation.

I think it’s safe to say that no amount of time, or increase in troop levels, will prove that “staying the course” is the way to go. Even CNN admits this, and you know things are bad when those Republican cheerleaders have changed their tune. It’s a simple enough concept: you can’t “win” an occupation. Pulling out offers equally unsavory prospects; the Iraqi security forces are in no way ready to take over, nor is the government organized enough to properly oversee the country on their own. And you know what? They’re not going to be, as long as we stay. A recent speaker at the Center for American Progress pointed out that the warring parties will have to be forced to work out their differences, and that a political solution won’t be forthcoming until the Iraqis themselves are truly running things. And I don’t shy from admitting that when we leave, there will be an at least temporary increase in sectarian violence. To me, it’s the unhappy moral formulation of more dead Americans and Iraqis, or more dead Iraqis. Goddess forgive me for choosing the latter.

If this is an unpleasant essay to review, it is nothing in the face of the choices the new Democratic leadership will be forced to make, and soon. The fact that they will be working “with” Chimpy only makes prospects that much more bleak. But I really want to see more sober, critical, reality-based discussions of what we can, must, and will do. This is a huge and horrifying mess the Republicans (and enabling Democrats) have made, but now it’s time for the grown-ups to take charge. I encourage everyone to speak frankly and plainly to your representatives, and remind them that people are literally dying in wait of real, effective policy in this war.

I think it’s appropriate to end this post cursing Bush, and so I do.