The left must take Obama down, and BE SEEN to take Obama down
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Otherwise, there is no left. It's existential. (Formulation due to Ian Welsh.) And it looks like that's just what is happening. Peter Daou:
Vindicated by new polls, progressive bloggers and activists will determine President Obama’s political fate
I’ve repeated a version of this thesis for years: a handful of influential progressive opinion-makers are canaries in the coal mine*, propounding and presaging views and arguments later adopted by rank and file Democrats.Recent polls (including Gallup, which shows a double-digit decline among liberals) indicate significant erosion of support for Obama among groups who propelled him to victory in 2008, reinforcing the idea that reality is catching up with netroots criticism. This crumbling of support is typically attributed by pundits to the poor economy, but the problem is more complicated: it’s the poor economy coupled with the sense (fair or unfair) that Barack Obama has no convictions, no moral center, nothing for which he will take an unwavering stand.
That perception of a lack of convictions can’t be attributed solely to attacks from the right, since they can be discounted as partisan. It’s when the left makes that argument that conventional wisdom congeals.
The impact of these critics on the left will continue to resonate into the 2012 election and despite dashed hopes and demoralization among progressive activists, they, more than any other group, hold the president’s political fate in their hands.
And we get?
Nothing, which is why Obama has to go down. If Obama doesn't go down, there's no left. It's really that simple. [Adding, my entire engagement with the Ds 2003 - 2008, and with the electoral process 2008 - and to date, reminds me of a wonderful old ER episode called Love's Labors Lost. Sigh. --lambert]
NOTE * Not that the blog that everybody hates and nobody reads has anything to do with this. Ha.
NOTE Hat tip DCBlogger for the link.
UPDATE Dauo cites more polling data from Chris Cilizza:
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows those who supported his 2008 election leaving the president in unprecedented numbers. The number of Obama 2008 voters who approve of his job performance is down to 79 percent, and on the economy, it’s 70 percent. Both are new lows for the president.
What’s more, some of his natural constituencies — liberals and young people — are also backing away. Just 69 percent of liberals say they approve of the president’s performance, while 47 percent of 18-to-29 year olds do. Those are also new lows, and it’s the first time the youngest demographic has dipped below 50 percent approval for Obama.

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Comments
hope i can believe in...
"while 47 percent of 18-to-29 year olds do"
this gen and the millenials might be able to turn things around, if there's anything left for them.
I agree which is why we need to ally...
... though I am not sure how to do that (cultural frames of reference are hard).
Who will bell the cat?
i.e. Who will primary Obama?
Many roads lead to perdition
I don't think the only way for Obama to go down is for him to be primaried. Losing in 2012 would be fine.
Fine for whom?
Yes, Obama losing would be a good thing. Obama and the current Repubs on offer would be even better.
Even a D who could only be counted on to make things marginally better(especially one beholden to the activist left that allowed it to defeat Obama).
So I'm personally holding out for a primary challenge to Obama. Marginally better would help a lot for people on the margins.
Works for Me
Just so he loses. No one should get away with all those lies and broken promises to people who trusted him and depended on him to do the right things. He crushed the fragile hope that was just beginning to bud.
Add to that, his illegal war in Libya, a war without our consent. He should lose just so future presidents know they can't get away with doing that.
Anyone who is clearly aware of all the harm Obama has done to our country and still votes for him, simply because he/she is afraid of the future, might as well give up his/her right to vote. A cowardly vote is worse than no vote at all.
There will be no one on the Democratic side to challenge Obama, but I want to make sure a Republican challenges him, and that's why I'm going to caucus with Paul. I want Obama to face someone who will challenge him on the wars, civil liberties, and NAFTA. If Perry or Romney win the nomination, they might as well make just get together with Obama and make it an Obama/Perry or Obama/Romney ticket. Their views are indistinguishable.
At any rate, no matter what, I hope that Obama loses, because he doesn't deserve our votes, he has not earned out votes, and he is too unprincipled and too dangerous to govern.
"Losing in 2012 would be fine."
I'm all for that!
But that doesn't exactly redeem the left, I don't think. Unless they stay home in massive numbers.
why should we stay home?
There will be a Green Party candidate in most states, or some other emergent party candidate. And the Presidency won't be the only thing on the ballot, there will be state and local races in most jurisdictions. We should certainly not stay home, we should go to the polls and vote for the candidates who reflect our values, which will include neither Obama nor whichever extremist the Republicans put forth.
Yes, or vote 3rd party
there is always that hope.
Losing would be okay. But
Losing would be okay. But clearly losing because of an insurgent 3rd party (or independent) challenge from the left that gets, oh, say, 15-25% of the popular vote would be so much better.
Not fine.
Not at all.
"Fine" in the sense that...
... the outcome at least has a possible future that's dynamic and not static.
Lambert's right (and so is Sarah Palin) :o)
The next President (whether in 2013 or 2017) will almost certainly be a Republican. Obama is already enacting right wing policies that even Republican presidents never dared try (or perhaps didn't want to). The longer he's in office, the further to the right the Overton Window will be pushed.
If he's out in 2013, Democrats in Congress will wake up and start attacking the White House from the left four years earlier (and that much further to the left) than if we're stuck with him till 2017.
In other news, its nice to see Sarah Palin listening to reason. :o)
After repeatedly accusing President Barack Obama of steering government to benefit corporate campaign donors, she turned to her party’s presidential candidates: “To be fair, some GOP candidates, they also raise mammoth amounts of cash,” Ms. Palin said. “What, if anything, do their donors expect for their investments?”
----
Only a billionaire candidate who can self-fund (or perhaps Sarah Palin, who's sui generis) can afford to cross the GOP fundraising class by tacking towards the center on economics. So yeah, it'd be great if Trump runs. If not, I hope Sarah and Todd read the tea leaves (and Trump's poll numbers) and realize that since the GOP establishment hates her anyway, might as well make lemonade out of lemons
http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/...
Your Wish...
is Buddy Roemer's command:
I like Buddy Roemer, but Palin's the one the NYT quotes
Some of Sarah Palin's Ideas Cross the Political Divide
something curious happened when Ms. Palin strode onto the stage last weekend at a Tea Party event in Indianola, Iowa. Along with her familiar and predictable swipes at President Barack Obama and the “far left,” she delivered a devastating indictment of the entire U.S. political establishment — left, right and center — and pointed toward a way of transcending the presently unbridgeable political divide.
She made three interlocking points. First, that the United States is now governed by a “permanent political class,” drawn from both parties, that is increasingly cut off from the concerns of regular people. Second, that these Republicans and Democrats have allied with big business to mutual advantage to create what she called “corporate crony capitalism.” Third, that the real political divide in the United States may no longer be between friends and foes of Big Government, but between friends and foes of vast, remote, unaccountable institutions (both public and private).
The practical meaning of dissatisfaction
Is there any significant relationship between the number of progressives who disapprove of a Democratic office holder's performance on the job and the likelihood that they won't vote for him? Voting for the lesser of two evils is a habit we may find difficult to break, despite our dissatisfaction.
While it's the lowest number I've seen so far, 69% approval among liberals is still amazingly high if one looks at Obama's record. I take the fact that conservatives support him so little and progressives so much as another sign of how misinformed we are as a society.
What matters the margin, not the aggregates
The left controls the margin.
Agreed
Yes, the margins are important. It's one of the reasons the NRA is so effective. What else makes the NRA effective, though, is that they actually exercise that control by voting their interests. NRA disaffection with a candidate will likely correlate strongly with whether they vote for that candidate or not. I don't see any such relationship among progressives.
Less than three percent of voters chose Ralph Nader in the 2000 election. That turned out to be enough to throw the race to Bush, but it clearly wasn't enough to impress the Democratic elites that they couldn't continue to ignore progressives without paying a price. I suspect the reason they were not impressed lies in the phrase "turned out to be enough". It was enough, combined with vote suppression and Al Gore's ineffective candidacy.
However the disaffection is expressed this time, I suspect it will have to be more than that to get the Democrats to change, or to give some third party hope that its time has come.
I think DCblogger's response below is a good answer, which is that this time we're in an economic downturn. Unfortunately, that's a correlation that applies generally to the voting public, too, not just progressives.
this time is different
the level of betrayal is just too great. Whatever people's feelings about Clinton were, by 1996 unemployment was down to 5%, so things were better. Things are completely different with Obama; it is not simply that on issue after issue there has been betrayal, it is not simply that Obama has gone out of his way to insult his base, it is that things are significantly worse now than Jan 2009. 9.6% unemployment, rising foreclosures, rising suicides, everything is worse.
Why
oh why are you using that 9.6 figure? Please consider Hugh's numbers as a humane, much more accurate. At least use the BLS U6.
**head bangs on walls and keyboard***
"!0% nominal (20% real)"
That's my catchphrase, just because a lot more people are familiar with the fake number.
The next President...
...will be a neoliberal, imperialist, anti-labor, NAFTA-uber-alles, deregulating, privatizing, police-state-enthusiast, FIRE-sector-funded, Republican or Democrat -- as will the one that follows them.
not necessarily
if the Greens or some other emergent party take the opportunities presented by 2012, puts their shoulders to the wheel and build their movement, by 2016 they would be in a position to elect a president.
or if Elizabeth Warren overcomes all obstacles and wins the MA senate race in 2012, and if she takes that opportunity to make herself the leader of the opposition to the kleptocracy, she could run as a Democrat in 2016.
also much depends upon the demonstration on Oct 6, will it just be a dozen people? will it be a few hundred? or will it be a major demonstration? and even if it is a major demonstration will it penetrate popular consciousness? and even if it does, will it have any effect upon our leadersheep. there is no way to know ahead of time.
"If voting could change anything it would be illegal."
Or words to that effect from Emma Goldman.
On the crippled Greens or other emergent left-ish party -- the FIRE sector's pockets are deep enough to keep them off the ballot in too many states for them to have any kind of chance, via Dem lawsuits bankrupting their campaigns...not to mention the pervasive propaganda machines that saturate the "news" media, which would paint them as flakes or "idiot liberals" or "smoking something" or "fuckin' retards" etc.
And the establishment's tactics would not be limited to such "honorable" methods, certainly.
As for any left-ish Dem being the nominee -- once again, the FIRE sector controls the cash and the media. If you want to know who the nominee is going to be, and who the eventual winner will be, you don't need to read, listen to, or watch anything but OpenSecrets.org. Remember George McGovern?
One thing to remember:
Obama is a symptom, not a cause of these problems. There are an army of idiotic neo-liberal Dems willing and able to replace him.
It is not enough to take down Obama, we must take down Reid, van Hollen, Hoyer, etc. as well. In other words, we must take down the entire party.
In looking at Obama's performance over the last year, it is clear that he has inflicted more damage upon the party than any Republican ever could have possibly imagined. And the speed at which this was done was breathtaking.
If he could do this much damage in 2 years, can you imagine how much havoc he could create if we gave him 4 more years?
Checkmate. The end. Dems go the way of the Whigs.
As a Green, my heart goes aflutter at the thought.
Obama/Biden 2012, baby.
Bwahahahahahahahahahaha
Will there be anything left
if we give him another 4 years?
That's my whole problem with the "wait for 2016" crowd, because I know too many people whose livelihoods and prospects have fallen irretrievably in the past few years to laugh at the prospect of more of the same.
My heart goes aflutter(not in a good way, more in an OhMyLordAndLadyWTDAreWeGonnaDo way) at the thought of continuing down this path without the slightest bit of pullback to the left.
And the fact that the conditions that are being created are rarely favorable to peaceful socialist revolutions, and instead more commonly lead to violent fascist ones. The latter possibility seeming all the more likely with the media assisted ascendancy of the psuedo-fascist Tea Party.
There won't be anything left, regardless
Even if there is a successful primary. A Republican administration would be even worse.
I think strip mining the country and moving everything to emerging markets was their goal all along, and the process is almost over. There already is nothing left.
We're just fighting over scraps at this point.
I think the battle of 2012 for the left should be in local races; look what is going on in Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, and of course Wisconsin. These happened because local races were lost.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not for waiting, we need to act now. But we have so few resources, we can't fight multiple fronts simultaneously, especially if our enemy has a billion in the bank, and we don't.
Even Kevin Drum gets it
Instant analysis:
Shocker.