The official view is that a rare and unfortunate accident occurred in the fall of 2008. The heart of the world’s financial system, in and around the United States, suddenly became unstable. Presumably this instability had a cause – and most official statements begin with “the crisis had many causes” [Note lack of agency] – but this is less important than the need for immediate and overwhelming macroeconomic policy action.
The official strategy, for example as stated clearly by [our old friend] Larry Summers is to support the banking system with all the financial means at the disposal of the official sector [see here for the scale of "all the financial means"]. ...
But most important, it includes a massive fiscal stimulus implying, when all is said and done, that debt/GDP in the United States will roughly double (from 41% of GDP initially, up towards 80% of GDP). ...
Not surprisingly, funneling unlimited and essentially unconditional resources into the financial sector has buoyed confidence [although the problem is not confidence but trust] in both that sector and at least temporarily helped shore up confidence in financial markets more broadly.
And now, in striking contrast to the dramatic action they call for on the macroeconomic/bailout front, the official consensus claims relatively small adjustments to our regulatory system will be enough to close the case – and presumably prevent further recurrence of problems on this scale. ..
The second view, of course, is rather more skeptical regarding whether we are really out of crisis in any meaningful sense. In this view, the underlying cause of the crisis is much simpler – the economic supersizing of finance in the United States and elsewhere, as manifest particularly in the rise of big banks to positions of extraordinary political and cultural power ["cognitive regulatory capture"].
If the size, nature, and clout of finance is the problem, then the official view is nothing close to a solution. At best, pumping resources into the financial sector delays the day of reckoning and likely increases its costs. [If you pump more blood into a zombie, it's still a zombie.] More likely, the Mother of All Bailouts is storing up serious problems for the near-term future.
We’ll double our national debt (as a percent of GDP), and for what? To further entrench a rent-seeking [readers of obscure C list blogs like this one already know the concept of rents and rent-seeking behavior to which Johnson alludes] set of firms that the government determined are “too big to fail,” but will not now take any steps to break up or otherwise limit their size....
We need to disengage from a financial sector that has become unsustainably large (see slides before and after #19; the cross-country data should be handled with care). ...
As moving in this direction does not seem imminent, the probable consequences or – if you prefer – collateral damage looks horrible. You can see it as higher taxes in the future, lower growth, a bigger drag on our innovative capacity, fewer startups, and less genuinely productive entrepreneurship. Plenty of people will be hurt, and they are starting to figure this out – and to think harder about what needs to be done and by whom.
“Small enough to fail” may well prevail eventually – at least sensible ideas have won through in past US episodes – but it will take a while. The official consensus always seems immutable, right up until the moment it changes completely and forever.
Right until somebody punches a fist through the Potemkin wall, and finds out there's nothing there but empty space and wind.
NOTE Everybody, everybody, everybody should be reading Baseline Scenario daily; have you bookmarked it? Good. Sort of amazing that a guy pulling the Overton Window
left is an IMF economist, but these are strange times. Alas, the A list, as a group, hardly ever links to him; I can't imagine why, since that would help their readers become financially literate.
- lambert's blog
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book recommendation
John Ralston Saul, The Collapse of Globalism (Woodstock and New York: The Overlook Press, 2005).
I’m halfway through it. Checking the index, I don’t see any mention of corporate criminality—Johnson’s “tunneling” has been a major advance in the discussion—but Saul does discuss, among many other topics, the “vaporization” of real value in the speculative economy. (For example, pp. 147–148: “. . . why were—are—no questions asked about the vaporization of the new wealth that women have brought to the economy? . . . If you were to look at a middle-class family in the 1960s, you would find that it did all right on one salary. Now two are required. The real wealth contributed by women has somehow been inflated away, while a great deal of new paper wealth has been created in such areas as money markets and mergers. In other words, real growth input [of women in the workforce in large numbers and at various levels] has not produced growth, while inflationary input has produced not growth but artificial wealth.”)
P. 144: “There was nothing new in the delusion that speculation and a consumption-based economy could last forever. And there was nothing new in the conviction that it would lead to disaster. . . . What was new was the effective loss of the old global trading idea that Keynes had described as ‘the duty of saving,’ a ‘virtue’ that permited ‘the growth of the cake.’ The myth of Globalization still includes this idea of trading to feed growth—an idea built on saving—while in reality the conversion into a speculation or consumption or vaporizing society does the exact opposite. And so the cake—particularly inside the developed economies—does not grow, because the global system does not wish it to grow.”
Pp. 141–142: “. . . Why did the astonishing and continuous expansion in trade not produce broad economic growth, spread wealth and reduce unemployment?
“I asked earlier whether the new phenomenon of trade between subsidiaries of the same transnational should be counted as trade at all. . . . If it isn’t trade, we shouldn’t expect it to have the effect of trade. . . .
“. . . But if the whole process is internal, it resembles not so much market trade as the earlier mercantilist model or that of the nineteenth-century empires. . . .
“The additional factor here is that, thanks to mass production, most of these markets are permanently in surplus production. The need is not to invest but to prop prices up.”
I am not an economist, but wasn’t the Great Depression prolonged, if not actually caused, by capacity overhang?
“. . . The challenge, therefore, is to develop a corporate growth strategy that has little to do with growth in the economy outside the corporation. Part of the solution has been to funnel this wealth into mergers and acquisitions, which permit corporations to become ever larger, but to no economic purpose.” The actual purposes are to keep prices up by restricting competition by various means, including influencing public regulations.
As you can see, he’s a wonderfully direct, accessible writer. The book is about the conflict between a theological view of economic “inevitability” and the public good.
Those are excellent quotes...
... and I'd like to hear more about these analytical tools.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Saul's virtue is his reasonableness
There’s a range of analytical positions: Johnson: criminality; Saul: short-term self-interest, short of criminality (I don’t know what changes in perspective he may have reached since 2005*); Stirling Newberry: the need to impoverish the middle class (I call it wringing out the middle class—catchy, no?) to drive down energy use (a kind of conspiracy theory, due to its coordinated, policy nature); common conspiracists: the Bilderburgers, the Bank for International Settlements, the Federal Reserve, and the New World Order; Lame Cherry: the attack on America by the Rothschild/European bankers and royals. I haven’t read up on our lizard overlords.
What I like about this book is that it doesn’t require buying into conspiracy theories. I quite enjoy conspiracy theories, but many people don’t, and, of course, there’s always the question of when does the fantastic but possible cross the line into the just preposterous?
I also recommend Saul’s Doubter’s Companion, very like Bierce’s Devil’s Dictionary.
*I see there is a new, updated edition just released, or about to be released (June 2009), with a “new, updated” conclusion (http://www.johnralstonsaul.com/SUM_Colla...); I’ll have to check it out. Also, some recent videos and lectures (http://www.google.com/search?client=safa...).
Not to not discuss the full
Not to not discuss the full contents of you comment, but there are some people working on the 'vaporizationl question. Sending this comment on my gphone or Id provide the link....but Elizabeth Warren has a wholwe youtube lecture video done at Berkely entitled 'The Coming Collapse of The Middle Class' as well as a book called The Two income Trap' which detal this well.
Neoliberalization has led to the financialization of everything. (Harvey, A Brief History of Neoliberalism, Chapter 1).
Yes, I saw the video
(an excellent, forceful presentation) and have read excerpts from her book. I just want to point out that the first edition of Saul's book was in 2005, so probably he wrote it in 2004.
Promises, promises
I don't get too worried about the great financial apolcalypse. As I misunderstand it, money's just a promise against someone else's current or future production. Stirling Newbury has pointed out that the current elites have promised themselves more than will ever be produced. The over-promises will lead to vicious political fights, which may become actual physical fights, but finally, we can just repudiate the corrupt promises.
We can never hope to match the oligarchy in the sheer mystification of why they should get everything for ever, but we should set our goal as firmly on their pile of plunder as they set on our Social Security.
This isn't to say that a society can be prosperous without a well-regulated economy. It's just to say that I don't contemplate letting all our productivity go to a bunch of fat, swollen leeches waving the pieces of paper they wrote claiming we owe them gazillions of trillions of dollars. So life will be much better for everyone if we just up the marginal income tax rate to Eisenhower levels, tax all income the same, and adopt a virtually confiscatory estate tax. (I actually like calling it the "death tax"; who better to tax than dead people?)
Of course, 30 years ago, I would never have believed that Americans would let all increased productivity go to an oligarchy without a fight, so what do I know.
Via Yves, from Animal Spirits a dyspeptic look at the future:
"On the coming neo-feudalism"by Benign Brodwicz (yes, new to me; well worth reading).
It's not a long piece, but very shrill....
It's not going to get better unless people take back their government. Or the Chinese buy us out and...who knows what will happen then?
Berhnard at Moon of Alalbama posted the link from Yves at Naked Capitalism
Er....
Here. Perhaps the headline was too in-groupy.
You could view all the talk of gardening as the bright side of being a peasant*. Thank gawd I'm don't depend on the crops coming in for my life, eh?
UPDATE * And you're all fucking peasants so far as I can see.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Er,er...I was going to read that post later--I figured anything
by Silber's brother would be pretty lengthy....
Sorry 'bout that.
Yup, I missed the meaning entirely.