This is a stickup!

Now that's "strategic behavior." Anyhow, I read this remarkable column by Joseph Nocera on the bailout in the The World's Greatest Newspaper (Not!), looking for answers to three questions: (1) Why? (2) Why a trillion? and (3) Why NOW NOW NOW? And I did indeed get my takeaway, though not, perhaps, the one that Nocera expected:

Markets Can’t Wait for Congress to Act

And I "can't wait" for my pony!!!!!!!!!!!

Here we are a week later, and guess what? Armageddon is again approaching. All week long, the credit-default swap spreads on Morgan Stanley widened, until, by Friday, they were actually worse than they were at any time during the previous week. ...

Why? And why a trillion? And why NOW NOW NOW?

The markets may not be as panicked as they were last week, but with every passing day, the situation is getting increasingly dangerous.

Or, to put it another way, with every passing day, Congress is fiddling while Rome is burning. ...

Why? And why a trillion? And why NOW NOW NOW?

Whatever its imperfections — and despite the possibility it might not work — it needs to be approved, quickly. I’m praying that by the time the markets open on Monday, Congressional leaders will have reached a consensus on the bailout plan. We’re running out of time. ...

Why? And why a trillion? And why NOW NOW NOW?

If the country had more time, I would argue that we put ideas like that into the sunlight and see if they flower. But we don’t have any more time. Nine days ago, the financial markets were staring into the abyss; the only thing that pulled them back was the news that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve had come up with a bailout plan. ...

Why? And why a trillion? And why NOW NOW NOW?

And the only thing that has kept them from falling back is the expectation that the plan will be approved quickly. For a while, it looked as if that was exactly what would happen.

Mr. Paulson and Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, spent the early part of the week defending the plan before Congress. While they faced tough questioning [feh], their main point came through: they had to act fast, otherwise the economy would crater. ...

Why? And why a trillion? And why NOW NOW NOW?

And so do the markets themselves, which is the most important point of all. Psychology always drives market behavior, and right now, the markets are desperately clinging to the idea that the Paulson plan is the only hope of regaining the confidence of borrowers, lenders and investors. Politics is politics, but the markets are not going to wait forever for a deal to be struck. In fact, I don’t think they are going to wait much past the weekend. No deal, no credit markets. It’s as basic as that. ...

Why? And why a trillion? And why NOW NOW NOW?

Every part of our economy depends on the credit markets. I know you’ve heard it before, but it bears repeating. If we do not claw our way out of this crisis, the country will face a severe recession.

Right now, our elected representatives need to get down to business and agree to pass the Paulson plan. If they don’t, they — and we — will live to regret it.

Why? And why a trillion? And why NOW NOW NOW?

Did you see any explanation for why the crisis is happening, or any accountability? Did you see any explanation for why a trillion dollars to Hank Paulson's golfing buddies is needed to solve it? And did you see any answer for NOW NOW NOW?

But wait a minute....

I think I'm getting the picture....

I've got the explanation!

The why, the why a trillion, and the NOW NOW NOW translate into something very, very simple, the kind of thing that Barney Frank thinks the American people "can understand". Here it is:

This is a stickup.

Well, fuck that, fuck them, and fuck everyone who's helping them get away with it, which includes the leadership of both parties, including their candidates.

UPDATE Via Calculated Risk, according to the the WSJ, the negotiators working on the deal are Senators Dodd (D-Connecticut) and Gregg (R-New Hampshire), and Congressman Frank (D-Massachusetts) and Blunt (R-Missouri).

It emerged shortly before the meeting began that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is expected to attend the negotiations.

According to lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, the plan proposed by Mr. Paulson, which would see the federal government buy up to $700 billion in toxic mortgage-linked assets, will form the core of any solution.

"Solution," although nobody can explain the problem, explain why $700 billion is needed, or how it forms a solution.

Translation: The Dems aren't caving; they want this (just like FISA). The token show of resistance was designed to allow them to cherish the self-delusion that they're different from the crooks and liars across the aisle; and to allow their constituencies to imagine they were, in some small way, represented. And to think I actually sent Dodd money on FISA. How stupid was that?

UPDATE Well, well. Blount was involved in the FISA [gag. spew] "compromise." WaPo:

Yesterday got off to a much better start, as House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) announced that he would join the negotiations. A member of GOP leadership for six years, Blunt enjoys a comfortable relationship with some Democrats and played the lead role in several recent bipartisan negotiations, including a compromise on foreign intelligence surveillance legislation.

Well, now I feel much better. Cleansed. Or maybe not. [reach me that bucket, wouldja hon?]

UPDATE Leader Nance, enabler of the FISA [gag. spew] "compromise":

``It would be my hope that this could be resolved today, that we'd have a day for the American people and members of Congress to review the legislation on the Internet,'' said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California. ``One thing is for sure, we are not leaving until this legislation is passed.''

Isn't that great? The legislation will be on the Internet for us to read before they go ahead and pass it. As Nance says: "They are advocates. We are leaders." Ante up, little people! Universal health care is a small price to pay, to allow Hank Paulson and his golfing buddies to live in the style to which it has become accustomed!

UPDATE And speaking of "strategic behavior", Interfluidity (via Anglachel) asks a very good question: "Why did Friday come early this week?" I mean, everyone know that banks fail on Friday after 5:00. So why did WaMu fail -- or why was it allowed to fail -- on Thursday? When the going gets tough, the tough get foily.

UPDATE Excellent analysis of Roubini's plan, not that anything that doesn't massively suck has a chance in hell of passing with Bush + Reid + Pelosi + Frank + Obama + McCain in charge (hat tip BDBlue).

UPDATE Does this explain the why? Paulson and his golfing buddies have managed to make the Fed illiquid? (hat tip tnjen) Fine. Can the insurance company I now own get me some health care? Thanks.

UPDATE Obama continues to meta-lead:

Both presidential candidates are trying to position themselves to take at least partial credit if an accord is reached. Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor offered new details from Thursday's contentious White House meeting that underscored the divisions among lawmakers trying to reach an agreement.

He said Obama encouraged Paulson to work with House Republicans. Since then, Vietor said, Obama has urged negotiators to find a compromise with enough options so the treasury secretary has the flexibility "to act in an effective manner to stem this crisis."

Except, of course, for mortage relief. That's not an "option," because Obama took it off the table right away, showing once again his mad negotiation skillz. But then, only little people need mortgage relief, so who gives a flying fuck?

UPDATE Steny "Putting the 'Ho' In" Hoyer, another FISA betrayer, weighs in:

All parties to the talks have agreed on at least one point: The need for an oversight board to ensure the program is run properly. The final details of the board remained unclear last night, and most lawmakers said it was too early to know who is likely to run it.

Hoyer said that whoever oversees the bailout program must instill "confidence" in the public and must not have any conflicts of interest with the financial markets or the Treasury.

Well, somebody like that should be easy to find. Hey, how about Hillary? She could implement HOLC!

UPDATE Kevin Drum reproduces the conventional wisdom in Mother Jones, of all places.

Meanwhile, outside Congress, every pundit, academic, and blogger in the country seemed determined to prove their manhood by proposing that we ditch the Paulson plan and instead spend our time considering some shiny new idea that they insisted was way more bitchin' than anything coming from all those other guys.

Gee, and to think I thought that Paul Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, and Joseph Stiglitz were all serious people. Boy, is my face red!

Or not. Amazingly, Drum recommends -- uncritically -- the very Nocera article critiqued here. He's joined the NOW NOW NOW brigade, like the rest of 'em, he never explains why, why a trillion, and why NOW NOW NOW.

NOTE Yggles on Nocera: "I know you want the candy...". Exactly.

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Panic Attack

What the article seems to be saying is that the whole problem is that the markets are having a panic attack.

A very convenient panic attack

that will get them a trillion dollars.

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

And, again, what is going on with Barney Frank??

Seriously, what has gotten into him? Or to him?

I never pegged him as Wall Street's hit man or muscle....

Every Econ Blog

I follow is seriously critical, dismissive, or incredulous at this bailout, whatever form it morphs to, in the bipartisan stampede to not get blamed for the economy tanking. The alternative proposals abound, but evidently nobody wants to slow this freight..er...gravy train down (ACORN, anyone?).

It still smells like a high stakes poker game to me with big money waiting for Congress to blink. Well, as one of my comedic heroes said "I say it's spinach and I say the hell with it!"

What's the update on the FBI investigation? Where the hell did

that come from? Seems odd that this mess takes the headlines but we have an investigation brewing w/out any coverage. Very odd.

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I love this job!

You're Not Likely To Get Any Updates on the FBI Investigation

any time soon. Even if it's a serious one and not simply done to cover the FBI's ass or for show, you're not going to hear much of anything. In fact, I'd say the more you hear in the next few weeks, the dimmer the prospects that this investigation is for real and not for headlines.

Fraud investigations take months, if not years to put together. The witnesses are unlikely to run to the press and talk about having been dragged before a grand jury. The targets are unlikely to do the same. The FBI is infamous for leaking and probably will here, but if they really did just start some of these investigations, there won't be much yet to leak. It'll take weeks just to get telephone records, tax information and bank statements.

If the FBI is lucky, it will have some disgruntled former employees come forward to tell all. That's much faster than having to piece it together with financial data. But, again, these guys won't be telling all to the NYT. In fact, if it's a serious investigation, the identity of the cooperators will be protected for a good while (although the FBI may leak that they have cooperators to try to freak out potential targets and get more people wanting to cut deals and talk).

At some point there may be search warrants and those would be hard to hide, but those tend to come later in an investigation because you have to have probable cause to get them. Now, for institutions the FDIC has taken over, the FDIC might be able to give a bunch of info to the FBI. I'm not clear on what a takeover actually means in terms of control.

"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt

WaMu, Not Wachovia

failed on Thursday. I believe Wachovia is scheduled to fail some time this week as circumstances require to move forward the bust bail out.

"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt

Fixed, thanks

I think you're right. Maybe Monday!!!

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

An Analysis of Roubini's Proposed Plan

from who agrees it's a good start and also thinks the current proposals are not.

Is there anyone not tied to Wall Street either through campaign donations or friends or their own employment who thinks the current plan makes any sense? Anybody? Bueller?

And yet our "leaders" cannot wait to make this deal. Very telling after an already enlightening year.

"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt

Your pony?

I've been waiting for it for so long that it's now broken backed and gasping for breath.

And we're all going to be held up at the OK corral I guess.

NH senator Judd Gregg declares this MUST be passed fore Monday

or the markets will crash. Monday or Tuesday the markets will crash! They'll crash, I tell you!!!

Silver lining: I don't have to go to work on Monday. Monday or Tuesday. It depends on when they crash.

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I love this job!

Press said WaMu went on Thursday due to a leak. Is that a

ruse?

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I love this job!

BD, I'm interested in the timing of the FBI investigation. This

whole thing seems soooooo orchestrated. Kind of like the Matrix and we're in an alternate universe.

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I love this job!

If Anything, I Think the FBI Investigation

undermines the call for a bailout. You don't bailout criminals, do you? I mean, other than from jail. Notice how Bush and Paulson never really mention the FBI investigation or fraud or crime? That's because it won't help them. It will make the American people less likley to support a plan they already hate. Not to mention that they aren't going to want to finger their buddies for fraud.

My own suspicion is that the FBI, distracted by terrorism, working for the Bush DOJ, fell down on the job and they know it. Now it's all over the newspapers. They read those, too, so it's not necessarily a coincidence that an investigation starts when something big hits the news. A lot of securities fraud investigations start that way, a NYT story or some other news story gets read by an SEC attorney and that person starts an investigation. Law enforcement works that way as well.

Here, the FBI would do so mostly to cover its ass. Because they don't want their appropriators asking the kinds of questions we've been asking - so why aren't these people in jail? Isn't this fraud? They want to be able to say, we've got X number of investigations. And, oh yeah, with terrorism, we're going to need more money to do them. It won't surprise me at all if we start seeing newspaper stories about how few resources the FBI has to conduct these investigations what with the big push on counter-terrorism. In fact, they're already blaming their failure to stop this (even though people in the FBI warned of this) on lack of resources.

I'm not an expert in much, but I know a fair amount about federal agencies getting or trying to get money. The FBI is one of the best at it. Every time they fail, they blame a lack of resources and it almost always works. Notice they did not get reorganized as part of DHS even though they failed on 9/11? All they got was more money, more authority, and more people. The same thing will happen here.

So I don't think it's a coincidence that the headlines and FBI investigations started at the same time. I think the FBI wasn't minding the store, saw the headlines, realized I might not be the only person to realize they fell down, and so opened up investigations (which they helpfully announced) to make it look like they were on the case. If I also had to guess, I'd say Paulson and Bush weren't happy about the publicity of the investigations, given that it undermines the bailout, but they're gone in four months so who gives a shit what they think?

That I know for sure. Nobody on career staff cares what the political appointees think or want at this point. People and agencies are already looking forward and positioning themselves for the next group. The FBI can read polls as well as newspapers. They want the Democratic Congress and the likely Democratic President to give them bigger budgets. They want to expand or at least maintain their jurisdiction and, if their fraud cases are suffering, they want the answer to be more resources, not letting IRS or Secret Service do those investigations. What the FBI as an organization cares most about is the FBI. Bush is yesterday's news and can't help them, so they'll move on to who can. Mueller may be loyal, but that doesn't mean the FBI is.

BTW, if I thought an FBI investigation would help with the bailout, then I'd be suspicious, too. But I think it hurts it, like I said, which means there's another explanation. In my experience, this is the most likely one.

"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt

There is only one BIG SCARY

...reason that makes sense for the urgency behind the calls and it's a doozy. It also explains why the cat's got everyone's tongue. I hope that it too is a fakeout being used to scare the hell out of pols but if not... illiquid ...*big gulp* ....oh lord.....Fed.

PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!

PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!

I like theories

that explain hitherto unconnected facts.

This doesn't make matters any less of a stickup; more, if anything.

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

One ginormous stickup

...but it would explain the fear and urgency. We already know the FDIC is running low of cash and that the Fed doesn't have the capacity to really do more than it's already done. So even if this is threat what are they going to do with the money? And is the threat even credible or just a threat. If they use it to provide the capital the Fed no longer has to lend where is the Fed gonna get the money it needs? We're still looking at a temp. solution to a gigantic systemic problem.

PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!

PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!

Yikes, Tnjen.

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I love this job!

Hey let's not forget that the Senate is sending

Bush a $634 billion budget to keep the government/defense dept. running.
http://tinyurl.com/3snby7

Hey come on, the bailout/buyout/rape is only a couple of billion dollars larger, you know they want to pass it.

"Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right."
Carl Schurz - U.S. Senator 1/17/1872

HISTORY, n. An account mostly false, of events mostly unimportant, which are brought about by rulers mostly knaves, and soldiers mostly fools.
(The Devil's Dictionary.com)

So, why not stop the war...

... and let Wall Street piss away that money?

We could sell 'em "War Warrants" or something -- "Good when Iraq actually sells us some oil on the cheap"

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

Hey Lambert-- Here's a link to the WaPo Done Deal Article

http://tinyurl.com/3jrbol
May I please just say crap- (via Hot Air, yeah I know)

"Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right."
Carl Schurz - U.S. Senator 1/17/1872

HISTORY, n. An account mostly false, of events mostly unimportant, which are brought about by rulers mostly knaves, and soldiers mostly fools.
(The Devil's Dictionary.com)

Done http://www.washingtonpo

Done

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...

I suppose these are stickups too?

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/bu...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/...

They even had Warren Buffet on the phone today!

peter

Peter, it's a stickup

...because it's a demand for money that isn't focused on solving the actual problem and because there have been few details regarding how the plan will work in practice coupled with absolute DEMANDS for ultimate discretion with no oversight. I don't think anyone is arguing that we don't have a serious problem on our hands that requires some kind of intervention but that intervention should first and foremost be in the interest of "We The People" and not "We The Village" or "We The Street."

This crisis and subsequent ECB, Fed, and Bank of England intervention has been going on for over a year. In that time, the ECB, Fed, and Bank of England have tried pumping money into the markets and smaller though still huge bailouts to little avail. What has gotten very little press is that these efforts were attempts to recapitalize financial institutions. The Paulson Plan is in reality little more than a larger version of what's already been tried and has failed. Further, with the last investment banks already gone (Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley becoming banks) much of the rationale for the initial bailout, protecting those major institutions from getting eaten by the markets even though they were solvent (which was happening before they changed over and short sellers were restrained) is gone too. Without some sort of explanation from those making demands, it is not too much to ask that we now try a systemic fix that includes help for homeowners and main street which in turn also benefits the financial sector.

PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!

PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!

Check this video out

I know it may be cheesy, please listen to the speakers, from 2004 fo0rmer President Clinton at the end.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs

peter

Ok you just lost all credibility

...posting that race-baiting, Orwellian POS. WTF?!?! What exactly is your point other than trying to spread one of the most morally reprehensible, anti-minority, anti-poor, memes the GOP has ever cooked up?

PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!

PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!

From the Mrs.

My wife is not the political junkie that I am, so I think hers is a fairly good Joe Sixpack/Sally Shopper measure. I told her they reached their agreement just after midnight and she said: (Conspiratorial whisper) "While they're asleep, we'll sneak in through the back door."

I'm represented by Tim Ryan, and he's generally been good. He also usually faces token opposition in his gerrymandered district. If he votes for this abomination I'm voting for his opponent even if it's the Creature From the Black Lagoon. Throw the bums out. In my case that will mean voting Republican. So be it. Vote Anti-Incumbent. That's the real opposition party.

The only smart thing Reagan even did....

....was allow the country to slide into a deep recession when the economic fundamentals of the country were completely fucked by the "stagflation" (high inflation plus a stagnant economy) of the late '70s.

So, if a recession is what it takes to get things right, then a recession should be allowed to happen -- and if it means spending a trillion bucks in public works projects to keep people working in the interim, so be it. Its not like we don't need massive infrastructure improvements, etc -- and the final outcome would be a far healthier economy and a nation that is in far better shape than it is now.

Thanks for this

Appreciate your showing us the Village framing, especially with all the panic, or generated panic, around.