Today’s Pew poll: room for leverage with Barack?

Real Clear Politics cites from the new Pew poll a couple figures: “69% of Hillary supporters back Obama; 17% say they will vote for McCain; and 12% are undecided.” And “55% of Democratic (and leaning) voters want to see Hillary as Obama's VP."

Digging deeper into the numbers...

**Only 38% said they DON'T want Hillary as VP. You mean the Cheeto doesn't speak for us all?? It’s especially significant that when asked “Would she make you more/less likely to vote” for Barack, it’s a bit of a wash for Republicans at 23/26, but makes a huge difference to capturing Democratic votes, by 34/9. Other factoids:

**48% of voters plan to vote for Barack; 40% for McCain, 12% undecided. Of those who did not specific McCain, when further asked if they still might vote for McCain or whether they were definitely decided against it, only 41% said they were definitely decided. 12% said they might still swing to McCain and 7% were undecided.

**34% say they are possibly or very likely to vote “no confidence” in either candidate if that option were on the ballot.

*56% want to see a third party, a number that’s been climbing since 1997.

**Candidate dissatisfaction is significantly higher this year at 38% than in previous election years -- June 2004 (33%) and June 2000 (31%). 31% of voters say they’ll have a hard time making up their minds as neither would make a good president.

**Voter cynicism is up a bit from previous years; the hope/change thing seems to be making little dent against political paralysis in the real world. Only 63% say it really matters who wins the 2008 presidential election, down from 67% in 2004.

**In mid-June, 30% viewed Barack as a “typical politician;” (before his position shifts were complete), but 50% had the The Maverick pegged as one. It will be interesting to watch Barack’s number on this next go-round. Voters prefer McCain’s judgment to Barack’s in a crisis 47 to 38%. You don’t want to know the experience numbers. But Barack will never run out of drinking buddies, with 64% finding him likable; McCain bowls alone with 18% likability. Who’d want to be near this guy with a bowling ball?

**The percent of voters leaning toward their Democratic candidates for Congress is up significantly, with 37 leaning Republican and 52 Democrat, over earlier years: 41 Rep./48 Dem. in 2004 and 43 Rep./47 Dem. in 2000.

**On issues voters most want to hear candidates discuss (they could list several), the economy remained the steady leader since April by far at 44%. But on other issues, the landscape has changed significantly since April. “Energy & gas” is up from 7 to 17% . Concern for gas prices appears to have displaced concern for “Iraq/The war,” down from 24 to 19%, and “health care/health care reform,” down from 14 to 9%. The environment, education, terrorism, immigration, taxes, the deficit, and all else are each 5% or under. Whatever you may think about the gas tax holiday, it’s blindingly obvious why Hillary felt it crucial to signal to voters that she heard their worries.

**A startling 34% say “We have gone too far in pushing equal rights in this country.” The poll did not specify rights for women or minorities. However, an impressive 81% say “I think it’s OK for blacks and whites to date each other,” and a heartening 70% say “the growing variety of ethnic and racial groups in the U.S.” is good for the country.

**The single most striking statistic of all in the entire poll was the number of voters contributing to campaigns -- only 13%. This completely discredits Barack’s disingenuous claim that private funding is more democratic than public. Despite all the talk of millions of small contributions, this is a very tiny group of people giving one candidate an enormous amount of money. That can’t be good for democracy.

Comments

Below 50%

What has struck me about so many of the national polls is how rarely Obama tops 50% even though he consistently leads. And there does not appear to be a single poll where he has gotten above 51%. When his lead increases it appears to be folks moving from McCain to undecided, not necessarily to him because his numbers remain in the 40s, even when McCain's dip down into the 30s.

It's hard not to speculate how Hillary would be faring now

I strongly suspect she'd be several points higher.

It's surreal that the Democratic candidate can't top 50% after eight years of utter insanity.

DUMP OBAMA

he's an emotionally incompetent leader and speaker.

DRAFT HILLARY

she can light up the crowds, aka, the voters.

democrats don't need howard dean's NEW version of the party -

"the democratic wing of the republican party".

more not good poll results--

"... Over half of the public, though perhaps has not heard of the FISA fight specifically, believes he shifts positions for political advantage. And why shouldn't they? He did. The drop was substantially concentrated among younger voters between the ages of 18-39 and independents. ..." -- http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?dia...

Whoa, Stoller! "Stop blaming critics for Obama's fuck-ups"!

Good on him:

Four, stop blaming critics for Obama's fuck-ups. Lots of people got excited about a new kind of politics, and then stopped giving when it became obvious Obama offers more of the same tired Democratic bullshit. Is that their fault? Maybe. But Obama should have known that this would happen. Plenty of people told the campaign to improve their outreach to liberals so he would understand the problems and be able to make better political decisions. He chose not to do that. Fine. But then the millions of liberals out there who believe in liberal stuff aren't going to support him. Obama gets that; he even said that if the FISA issue is a dealbreaker, "that's ok".

Thanks for that link, Amberglow.

So if it's a dealbreaker, and that's OK...

... does that mean I have to get over it anyhow?

Or should I just shut the fuck up and send Obama more money? This stuff is confusing.

NOTE And this is the beauty part, Stoller's update: "Man the comments section is nasty. " We tried to tell you, Matt, we really did...

[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

Doublethink

You have to hold both thoughts at the same time:

1. It's a dealbreaker (does this mean it's ok to not vote for him)

2. Get over it (and vote for him)

3. Shut up and send more money.

Glad I could help! ;-)

In context...

Democracy cannot exist without strong differences. And going forward, some of you may decide that my FISA position is a deal breaker. That's ok. But I think it is worth pointing out that our agreement on the vast majority of issues that matter outweighs the differences we may have. After all, the choice in this election could not be clearer. Whether it is the economy, foreign policy, or the Supreme Court, my opponent has embraced the failed course of the last eight years, while I want to take this country in a new direction. Make no mistake: if John McCain is elected, the fundamental direction of this country that we love will not change. But if we come together, we have an historic opportunity to chart a new course, a better course.

If it's a dealbreaker, the correct answer is: "hahahaha, where else are you gonna go?"

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