Conventional wisdom says lagging, which translates on the ground to "STFU if you don't have a job yet," but could conventional wisdom be wrong? John Mauldin* writes at The Big Picture:

The typical pundit keeps telling us unemployment is a lagging indicator, and that the recovery will be well under way before it shows up in the job numbers. Therefore, you should buy what they are selling, because the recovery is on its way. But that may not be the case this time. One of my favorite reads, when I get to see it, is the economic analysis from Bridgewater. They are among the best thinkers anywhere, and everyone who follows them gives them a great deal of credence. This is what they wrote about unemployment being a lagging indicator last month:

“Normally, labor markets lag the economy because incremental spending transactions are financed via debt, stimulated by interest rate cuts. But as long as credit remains frozen, spending will require income, and income comes from jobs. And debt service payments are made out of income. Therefore, in a deleveraging environment job growth becomes an important leading, causal indicator of demand and other economic conditions.

Do note the parallelism of this set of ideas to the ideas of Elizabeth Warren, so forcefully removed from polite discourse by NPR as deviant.

“… The bounce in the economy and the stabilization in markets reflect government actions that are big enough to impact near-term growth rates, but are not sufficiently directed at the root problem of excessive indebtedness to produce permanent healing. The deterioration in employment markets will continue because companies’ profit margins are so deeply damaged that a little bounce in growth won’t do much to alter their need to cut costs. This deterioration in labor markets will undermine demand and continue to pressure loan losses, which will keep the pressure on the banks and elevate the cost of capital for tentative borrowers, inhibiting credit expansion.”

This again illustrates the problem of using past performance to project future results. You have to look at the underlying conditions in order to get a real comparison, and we have not seen a deleveraging recession in the US for 80 years. Using the past data in today’s world is statistical masturbation: it may make you feel good, but it is not producing anything really useful, and may be harmful to your portfolio.

NOTE * Further on down in Mauldin's article:

This week I visited the Cleveland Clinic and went through their Executive Health Program (more on that below). I got to visit for several hours with my doctor, Michael Roizen, of YOU: The Owner’s Manual fame (not to mention all his subsequent books). They have now sold over 20 million copies, and I highly recommend them.

So, he's not exactly going naked, is he? Well noted. But that doesn't mean he's not smart, and about some things, especially where they touch his interests deeply, he's likely to be insightful. It would be foolish not to learn from him. Even if, later on down, he does want to steal my Social Security. It's like getting a ride to the airport with a cabbie who has Rush Limbaugh on. Listen, learn, and get to your destination.