Wed, 11/05/2008 - 6:05am — Paul_Lukasiak
Despite all the celebrations, an examination of the data from key states tells us that voters tuned out this election, rather than turned out for it.
105 million voted in the presidential election in 2000
121 million voted in 2004
so far, with 95% of precincts reporting, only 112 million voted (extrapolate that to 100% and its only 117 million.)
here is data from 3 key states
2000 2004 2008 2008 % counted PA 4,912,185 5,765,764 5,390,910 97.95% OH 4,705,457 5,627,908 5,012,434 95% FL 5,956,243 7,609,810 8,005,681 99%
here are the voter registration statistics for those states
VOTER REGISTRATION 2000 2004 2008 PA 7,781,997 8,366,663 8,758,031 OH 7,531,555 7,972,826 8,164,823 FL 8,880,396 10,476,437 11,247,634
and here is the turnout percentages (data for 2008 extrapolated to 100%)
TURNOUT
2000 2004 2008
PA 63.1% 68.9% 62.8%
OH 62.5% 70.6% 64.6%
FL 67.1% 72.6% 71.9%based on currently available data, it appears that millions upon millions of Americans decided that the choices were so bad that there was no point in showing up at the polls.
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young voters too--only 1% more
than 2004 -- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopi... -- Who voted for him?
The big difference....
the big differences between 2004 and this year are
1) the African American vote -- in 2004 it was 11% and was split 88% Kerry, 11% Bush. This year it was 13% of the vote, and split 95% Obama, 4% McCain.
2) low turnout among white voters. This year, white voters comprised 74% of an estimated 117 million voters or 86.6 million voters. In 2004, they were 77% of 121 million voters, or 93.2 million. White voters went for Bush over Kerry 58% to 41% in 2004, and for McCain over Obama 55% to 43% this year.
counties w/high foreclosures--
i notice that around Orlando and Vegas (both areas with big foreclosure and seizure rates) they went Obama--i wonder if it's true nationwide? that counties with extra-high home loss went D?
(and of course, what they think will be done for them?)
Given that the Congressionals Appear to Be Less Than Polling
suggested in terms of pick ups, doesn't look like great coattails to me either. Although I haven't done any detailed analysis. It looks like folks had no problems splitting their tickets. But why wouldn't they, we're all post-partisan now.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
coattails on social issues, but not downticket
i'd say.
and on the social issues, they voted the wrong way on many things all over the country.
Dems for a day
I guess Obama doesn't give a rip what they did down ticket or who was screwed over by them.
Let the Narratives Begin!
Talking Points Memo is quoting Politico in saying 130 million voted, but the article doesn't cite any underlying data. Maybe votes are still coming in or maybe we're seeing the beginnings of "more people than ever before!" meme. Too soon to tell.
CNN still has the total quite a bit below 130, current tally around 117 million.
"Do what you feel in your heart to be right -- for you'll be criticized anyway. You'll be damned if you do, and damned if you don't. " - Eleanor Roosevelt
I LOVE
Paul's chock full of geeky goodness posts, just as I did during the primaries. Please Sir, more data analysis....especially as the final tallies are certified. In the past your posts went hunting in the weeds where other feared to go. Keep it coming.
Read between the LINES
I'm beginning to suspect that turnout is self-limiting. Quite simply, even in the most important election EVAR, not everyone can spend 8 hours waiting in line. There's only so many voting machines in the whole country, and only so many hours in a day, and if you worked in the average time to cast a ballot I think you'd conclude that we have reached Peak Voting. I'm not sure why the wait times were longer this year than in 2004, though... are we destroying excess voting capacity?
I think the unprecented early-voting turnout is a more reliable indicator that people were in fact excited.
But I still believe
And I will rise up with fists!!
But I still believe
And I will rise up with fists!!
Lines to vote are a function of HOW localities/states plan for
elections. And budgets.
I voted about 4PM--no line at all going to my precinct table--then a 3-4 minute wait bcz I stopped to look at a newspaper headline before getting in line. There was a new citizen voting who needed help, but that was the only thing causing a line.
Since I've lived in northern NJ I've rarely if ever had to wait in any line at any time longer than 10 or so minutes.
One thing Rachel Maddow said that I agree with:
Long election lines are the modern version of a poll tax.
How many people can drive to an election site, park, walk, wait, vote, then get back to work (possibly without lunch) in one hour? How many can juggle home responsibilities, to wait after work?
Why do we depend on retirees as poll workers, then saddle them with our most flaky and complicated technology, for vote processing? Why do we plan for elections with an army of temporary workers whose work rules change almost daily, according to court challenges and new regulations? We build the system to discourage voting, plain and simple.
we didn't have what we had in 04 tho--
where many cities and counties were fighting to get extended voting hours, or did extend their hours bec of turnout.
the early voting (which i actually don't like or trust) helped a little with that, but cost states a lot--in 2010/2012 they may not have the funding to do it, i fear.
Every cycle we all yell and show the massive problems--and Congress does nothing--it'll be like that this time too.
I think Crist in FL was brilliant to add hours in early voting the way he did--esp after 2000--the GOP actually made an effort to do a little better, so that's something.
Paul, are vote totals in for all states? If not, are those not
reported fairly small numberically?
I was a bit surprised to find that here in NJ, the Dems took only one of the open House seats (Alder, in a seats. And in a seat they thought they could challenge (Scott Garrett), the Dem lost by 14 points. FYI-Garrett voted against both bailout bills, iirc.
It seems voters were splitting their votes, giving the presidency to the Dem bcz BushCo has been so incredibly abysmally awful, but then voting for the R for House and Senate.
Branding? Heh. Is the a Tranformation Party??
May not be split voting
Even blue NY has red districts. I suspect if you check the NY Times' county-by-county map (click on NY State to see its districts) you'd find those Republicans who held onto their seats were in red districts.
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We can't afford not to have single-payer!
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We can't afford not to have single-payer!
An interesting analysis would be WHERE the voting went down
Clearly, the african american vote and voter registration went up. But, if I read correctly, the "white" vote went down. It would be interesting to see where it went down and then maybe arrive at "why." This may be difficult due to the definition, or lack thereof, of "white."
I love this job!
I love this job!
New York State is down a little from 04--
i bet most uncontested states are probably down a little.
we have tons of young people too, but our totals for this election are less than Kerry/Bush -- Obama got almost exactly the same number of votes as Kerry did (only 20k difference), and McCain got less than Bush did -
click on states here and you can compare diff elections -- http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/result...
Ana Marie Cox on WNYC-Dem leaders told her Franken not quite
the kind of candidate they want to bring in going forward. Audio available later today.
She made it sound as if it was not his background as a comedian/writer, but perhaps his politics. But I really had to read between the lines bcz the host did not ask a follow-up on that comment. Just let it hang.
Too partisan
Franken is unapologetically partisan Democratic in the Wellstone mode. Democratic "leaders" never liked Wellstone either. In fact, the only Minnesota Dem that they would be happy with is RT Rybak (Minneapolis mayor) since he's a mealy-mouthed go-along pretty boy.
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Around these parts we call cucumber slices circle bites
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I'm not such a bad guy once you get to know me.
way too liberal--Schumer/Emanuel only want "moderate"/"centrist"
candidates--if Franken wasn't famous, they'd have put in their own person to run, like they always do in so many other races.
Emmanual is the new
Chief of Staff for the Obama administration and possible John Kerry, Secretary of State. Heh
"No Point in showing up": look at that 2004 turnout peak.
I'd be a little careful about expressing turnout as a percentage of registered voters.
Let's say for a moment that folks registered hundreds of thousands of cartoon characters, family pets, etc. like ACORN is alleged to have done. (And with folks getting paid for piece work, why not assume that?). It damps down the "percent of eligible voters who actually vote". That's a number you'd want depressed if you wanted to instill a lack of faith in democracy.
But the raw numbers from those 3 states - your first set of figures - DO point to a lower raw turnout versus 2004's peak. Here's a thought: was the theft of 2004 actually a much bigger dispiriting blow to voting Americans than 2000?
Also, there was a LOT more attention paid this year to pollwatching, voter suppression tactics, and - like it or not - a frenzied media out looking for sensational stories, and Obama's organized ground game.
Here in the Philly area, a Haverford nursing home's residents found out on election morning that they weren't going to vote in their building lobby like normal - their official polling place had been redistricted a couple miles away. The local NBC affiliate was on the job; lawyers and judges were called; the video on the story showed an elderly, chair-bound AfAm woman who voted after clearly spending the day wondering if she'd be able to. She started to break/tear up and so wheeled herself off camera. Awesome.
Oh, and off topic: it looks like some asshole was calling ride volunteers in Philly and sending them on wild goose chases. A nice young lady showed up at the front door of my apartment building at 7:45 PM with a wheelchair - which no one in our building uses - in search of an apartment number which doesn't exist.
Can you imagine how frantic the poor girl was? Believing she had 15 minutes to get someone in a chair, down the stairs, around the corner and in line at the polling place? And yet she didn't just give up and say "Fuck
it"??
Stay classy, GOP.
Since the Corrente thought police are now on the hunt (elsewhere) for happy-bunny positivity thoughts today, here's mine:
* a bunch of surprising states (Florida, VA, fingers crossed NC?) DID go blue last night. (For some value of "blue", but why quibble now?)
* There was a LOT of tireless volunteer action on the ground yesterday and last night, and a HELL of a lot of scrutiny of the process this year, and much more popular interest in that scrutiny. Voting machine malfunctions were viral YouTubes, fer crying out loud. THAT IS GREAT NEWS!!!!
* That massive scrutiny, and not any massive changes in voter participation, may be the secret to making sure Dems get elected. To the extent that Hillary might not have been able to summon up that army and that energy, Obama may have been the only choice this year for the "Democrats".
* My own experience last night at 7:45 testifies to dirty, disgusting GOP shenanigans in PA, which ultimately failed, failed, FAILED!
Plz give details on the shenanigans that FAILED?
inquiring minds want to know -- and it may be good training for 2010/12 races here in TX!!
We can admit that we’re killers … but we’re not going to kill today. That’s all it takes! ~ Captain James T. Kirk, Stardate 3193.0
1 John 4:18
I meant the fake voter-transport calls in Philly.
What I meant was, the effect of sending disabled-transport volunteers on wild goose chases on election day is blunted when you have a sufficiently massive number of people on the ground doing this stuff to compensate.
Similarly - that nursing home story ended well despite the surprise redistricting because staff could be spared to do the work.
I was just emailing with a guy who was part of a network calling itself "the world's biggest law firm": 30,000 lawyers monitoring polling places.
There's a theme here...
"How do we do it? Volume."
Bodies, energy, and scrutiny. If in fact Obama was the only one who could have brought all that to the table this year on behalf of the Dems, then indeed he should have been the nominee. "We" went further this year with fewer voters than in 2004.
But he's not going to be running in 2010.
So somebody's got a lot of work to do convincing these same people that this work is important even when The Precious
isn't running for office. Will that somebody be President Obama? Will he make it clear that people have to work for more and better Democrats, or will he listen to the Village
....?
what about walking-around money in Philly?
did he pay this time?
was turnout high there? higher than Kerry?
Missouri had higher turnout, but went McCain anyway--
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/554... -- Missouri, the bellwether, backed the loser. What happened? --
"... Obama had said that he hoped to duplicate Claire McCaskill's strategy in winning the state's U.S. Senate race in 2006, when she focused heavily on rural counties. The hope wasn’t to win those counties, only to cut her losses enough so that the state’s two big cities could carry her to victory.
Although Obama visited Springfield twice, and appeared in communities along Interstate 44 in a late-July foray, he never devoted the sustained attention to rural Missouri that some thought was required to win the state.
"If Obama was trying to mirror the Claire McCaskill strategy, it was a failure, because he did significantly worse in outstate Missouri than Claire McCaskill did," said George Connor, a Missouri State University political scientist. ...
More people voted for president in Missouri and Kansas than ever before, but it wasn't enough for Obama. ..."