Hello Lambert. Thanks for fixing my registration.

I'm a Kanuckistani, so though I live in the USA currently, I don't get a vote. But if I *could* vote, AND someone were holding a gun to my head and telling me I had to vote for either Clinton or Obama and no one else in the primary, I would probably push the button or pull the lever or whatever other ridiculous voting scheme you Americans dream up for Clinton.

At this point, I think a Clinton victory is unlikely, but we'll see. It's very unlikely that the party is going to seat the MI or FL delegates in any fair way, because then the voice of a million "Kossacks" (gah!) raise as one would blow the frail house down.

But I'm wondering: what do you think that the Clinton camp could have done better to avoid this outcome, if anything?

Jerome is now talking about an Obama bounceback:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/22/1994...

The sp33ch (me: "tl;dr") seems to have worked.

It seems like Obama is almost completely dependent on media narrative. When it's bad his poll numbers sink fairly quickly, when it turns decent again (the media moving away from Wright), they pop back up. It leads me to wonder what will happen to him if he has several weeks - say, three - of bad media.

At the point where Rezko is convicted, Obama has a huge problem on his hands. Rezko can probably lie about Obama to Obama's campaign's detriment as easily as he can tell the truth to his benefit - and I make no assumptions in either direction. Buchanan is right - Fitzgerald will wait until he has a conviction and Rezko is facing his remaining decades in the stripey hole before he attempts to flip him and get him to rat out those whom he bribed. If that happens while Hillary is still in the race, then Obama is pretty much fucked - regardless of the truth of whatever Rezko says. None of the SD's (even the ones that support him now) will hang around to see a Democratic nominee get indicted during the race - even if the odds of that happening are practically nil.

It really looks to me like Obama is playing chicken with Patrick Fitzgerald and I know where I'd put my money in that particular show down.

On another subject entirely (and you can delete this if you'd like), I dug up the schedule for the Illinois State Senate last night. It seems that they met, on average, about 75 days per year and out of those days, only about 55 days were mandatory for attendance. On the other days, roll call was not even taken. So Barry had about a year and a half of legislative experience before he was elected to the US senate. He had about 2 years of US senate experience when he announced his candidacy for the Democratic nominatiion. That works out to be about 3.5 years of legislative experience for him, and zero exposure to executive experience. Lotta ego there to run with that resume. I think this is perhaps the big reason that Obama won't release his schedule. There has been very little talk of that job as part time as it is, but I think most Americans would be shocked by just how part time it was.

A Rezko conviction brings with it bad publicity, but I doubt it brings any real legal threat to Obama. So far, according to everything I've read, Obama hasn't been fingered in the really bad stuff, so it's unlikely there is anything there. In the unlikely event there is more there than known, there probably is some fear. But even if you assume the worst about Obama, something I don't, I doubt there's much fear. If Rezko is convicted, whatever reason he'd have for taking Obama down would pale in comparison to the reasons why he might like to stay on the good side of someone who could be the next President of the United States, someone with the power to commute federal sentences and pardon federal convictions (even if he waits to do it on his way out the door).

how come Obama hasn't won yet?

Why would anybody delete the comment? Why not give a link or, better, link and summarize the data with tables and numbers?

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

with a sense of the first four years, but here's the schedule for 2002. 2003, and 2004.

http://www.ilga.gov/house/schedules/defa...

I spent a lot of time combing through news paper archives and what I can't find is any evidence that the legislators met more than usual during Obama's first four years. I can find evidence for a couple years that are longer that the news papers commented on the longer sessions - as we all know they would. I'm going to make some calls on Monday and get the exact number of days. But in the meantime, I do think this is a lot of his hesitation about releasing his schedule.

what do you think that the Clinton camp could have done better to avoid this outcome, if anything?

Oppose the war in 2002. Had she done right thing on the war she would have been the leader of the opposition and would have been nominated by acclaim in 2004. But princess AIPAC keeps getting it wrong. That is why there is so much resistance to her. Also, if she loses this fight, it will be the same way she lost health care. She really does run a top down operation and learned exactly the wrong lessons in 1994. There are very good reasons so many are so determined to deny her the nomination. Had Edwards stayed in the race, had Gore chosen to run, had Wellstone lived to run, I would have been one of them.

with Lambert (and Jerome)

What a surprise.

You think she'd have made it here if she weren't princess AIPAC?

Even so, I was asking a more specific question about campaign mechanics.

he got more votes than any candidate in history (with only the possible exception of George Bush) and raised more money as well. Had she voted against the war, she would have one heckuva time winning the nomination even today. The vast majority of people commenting on this race were pro- war, and they don't like having it shoved in their face that some legislators got it right.

Hillary is far more intent on winning the general than the primary - that's abundantly clear. I think the strategy of her entire campaign will make a lot more sense to a lot more people if she gets the nomination. She's goign to be tough for Republicans to run against.

can't go into it in the space of a post, but while Kerry got the nomination he lost the general because he was in a fix over the war. Or at least that is part of the reason he lost.

As far as the mechanics of the campaign are concerned, Clinton really does run a top-down campaign. Bill did in '92 and '96. I volunteered for him and can say it was far more top down than say, Carter's '76 effort. The Clinton's have spent their adult lives in elite circles and it shows. Also, in her failed health-care effort, it was very top down. That is why she lacks a decent ground game.

At this point I think she would be better than Mr. Hopey Unity Pony man, but I go back and fourth.

I think upyernoz has a point, people are painting themselves into a corner. It has got to be either a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket. Otherwise we lose to More Wars Fewer Jobs.

*waves* Mandos!

I'm not sure what Clinton could have done to avoid this current state of affairs. One thing's become crystal clear, however: everything she does is going to be construed as cynical, self-serving etc.

Not like pure-as-snow "claws come out" guy. No, he's a 'new kind of politician.' Heh.

I think Bob Somerby was on to something recently when he likened the media's Tx of Clinton to being "Gored." A warning to Obama supporters--Somerby suspects that Obama will be "Dukakised." Anyway.

If I'm not mistaken, MI and FL weren't the ONLY states to break rules. But in the pandering to Iowa, NH, etc, none of the candidates dared chastise the earlier states. They honestly thought it wouldn't come down to that. I'd be super pi**ed if I lived in MI/FL.

Suck up watch: I *love* Correntewire. Such a break from the Villagers and Kossacks.
Cheers from Canaduh,
GDK

What's with the round bacon?

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

....as I thought it the commentary of an adult instead of one of the 'Boys on the Blogz'.

I also pointed out that his reposting of the community rules at MyDD was futile. They are the same as The GOS tried and his site has been destroyed. The adherence to the 'Big Man' now 'Chieftain' structure for progressive blogs will not work. Neither one person nor a small cadre can impose order on the numbers we are now seeing aggregating at various sites.

'Sides 'Big Man' structure ain't very progressive at all.

As to Obama the Magic Man and his 'bounceback' the corporatists are just setting him up for the Rezko hit job.

And after that it'll be time for Nadhmi Auchi.

The Magic Man has my deepest sympathy. He's destined to have his entire life lathered, rinsed and repeated until he's a pal shadow of himself.

Irony and sarcasm intended.

A. Citizen

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.

What's with the round bacon?
LOL! Dunno, actually...I'm one of those DFVegetarians.

*sigh* Canadian Bacon...oh, how I miss John Candy.

Cheers,
GDK

We can admit that we're killers ... but we're not going to kill today. That's all it takes! Knowing that we're not going to kill today! ~ Captain James T. Kirk, Stardate 3193.0

Next you'll be commenting at Three Bulls. :)

I'm not a DF(That's right!)V, but I don't eat bacon either, so I have no idea though being a Canuck.

Oh, and Mandos may not know from bacon, but he's generally a great go-to-guy about other food. Just so's y'know ;)

of any kind. Even Canadian.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Lovely country, wonderful people, and a fabulous sense of humor eh?

...current crop of internet beaver jokes, I dunno.

All I know is that Canadian politics are on a "suck" cycle with Bushlite (really Cheneylite) running the show.

today, in particular? Maybe 'cause of that bizarre Erica Jong piece about beavers and stallions. I dunno. Wolcott got a good headline out of it, though :)

And Mandos is right: us Canadians are currently ruled by the worst PM evah and our 3 oppo parties don't have their s-together, so it could be a while before they bring him down.

Yeah you guys really picked one. Pity, with the Liberals in you could rag on us but not now. Who could have expected that Chrétien would be missed so much, so soon.

Who underwent a years-long campaign to oust him for Dithers (what we call Paul Martin) must be rueing the day they started, or ought to.

Chrétien, on the other hand, is probably chuckling to himself. Especially after the mockery he made of the Gomery inquiry using golf balls. Only Jean.

For that, we honor him. Pretty ironic, when you think about it....

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

...the one who benefitted was Little Stevie. He is perfectly willing to pander to the right-wing "autonomiste" sovereignty-lite movement in Québec and divest the federal government of regulatory roles. Suits him very well.

I was never very upset by the sponsorship 'scandal.' And I laughed despite myself when Chrétien started pulling out those golf balls. Teh ballz!

It seemed like there were plenty of other annoying or even outrageous things to care about (security certificates for e.g.). That said, the Conservateurs and Bloc sure milked that Gomery. Martin handed them the milking machine--something Chrétien never woulda done, IMHO.

Harper and his goons are f'g up all over the place, but it could take another year or so before it really sinks in with the electorate. The oppo parties are too weak and constantly undermine themselves. The 'Liberals' keep talking about fighting and then vote for Harper's crap anyway (or abstain from votes, w/same result).

Anyway. You've prolly had just about enough of this Kanuckistani kvetching (as Mandos would say).

Thanks for the Molson ad! I'm sad to say that Coors bought out Molson a few years back, so I don't see any more beaver ads in the future.

ook at the universal health care thing you've got going! This nonsense has to be stamped out now, and the sooner the better.

Besides, we need the water, oil, and power. Gotta keep Vegas lit!

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Oh, yeah, sure, why not?

Seeing as how we've done such a bang-up job down here sorting out our own.

Seriously though, Canadian politics have been very useful for defusing discussion of instituting a parliamentary system instead of our own method of institutional gridlock, and compared to what's going on in Alberta with the oil sands the Bush enviro debacles look trivial.

Sorry aboot about Molson and no you won't be seeing any more commercials like that one. Of the big brewers I always preferred Labatt and now they're Belgian owned I can still drink them with a clear conscience. Lots of wonderful small and micro brewers in Canada, with an output far greater than can be consumed in a single sitting and that is an experimentally established fact.

One of the greatest names ever for a brew comes from Unibrau in Chambly, Québec just north of Montreal - La Fin Du Monde. At 9% ABV and bottle fermented it is just the thing for a long winter’s night.

Very good to have Canadian commentary here; a bit of distance for perspective and some direct testimony on the things you've done mostly right, like health care, will be appreciated.

Canadian health care has always been in jeopardy, and it is even more so now. The Canadian Medical Association is led by a Randroid who thinks that single-payer health care is immoral stealing from doctors, basically.

degradation of it when you start with the goal achieved is fabulous and heavenly compared to what we have here by far...

and you can fight successfully against anything that hurts it because you have living proof of its overwhelming success (like we always successfully protect SS -so far-because it's been such a success).