Poll after poll tells us the country wants democrats to be in charge and when asked if this is a democratic year we've seen pundits and party leaders alike do their best impression of a Magic 8-Ball -- at times even shaking and turning blue with exasperation before telling us that, "[all] signs point to yes." But despite the bluster, Senator Obama is lagging behind the much vaunted and highly praised "generic" democrat.
So why is it that Senator Obama is performing below expectations? Why hasn't he opened up a much larger lead in most tracking polls?
According to the Cook Political Report, Obama's got double trouble with white boomers when compared to the patterns of support from the generations that came before them as well as those that followed them.
Cook tells us that among white voters sampled from April to June:
Obama trailed McCain by 9 points among both 18-to-34-year-old white voters and those 65 and older. He lagged by 10 points among 35-to-49-year-old whites. But among those 50 to 64, Obama is losing by a whopping 18 points, 51 percent to 33 percent.
By doing very well among African-Americans and reasonably well among Hispanics, Obama could easily overcome his deficits among whites under 50 and over 65. But losing whites born between 1944 and 1958--pretty much the lion's share of the Baby Boomers--by 18 percentage points? Wow. That's a burden.
No kidding. So where does the deficit come from?
Some of this may be attributable to long-term voting patterns. These are voters who remember the disappointing--some would say failed--presidency of Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981, which was followed by the fairly popular--many would say successful--presidency of Ronald Reagan from 1981 to 1989. The voters in this bloc were ages 19 to 33 when that 12-year downer period for Democrats began and 31 to 45 with their voting patterns set, most likely for life, when it ended. Obviously, there are exceptions.
It is often said that Reagan drew a whole generation into the Republican Party. And some observers wonder whether George W. Bush may have driven another generation away. If this is true, Barack Obama, meet Ronald Reagan, your real opponent.
Or maybe there's more...
But do white Boomers' past voting patterns explain Obama's problems with them? Or, is his difficulty that these are voters in their prime earnings years, when they are most sensitive to the issue of taxes? Do they view national security issues differently and want beefier credentials than Obama offers?
Good questions. Any guesses?
ADDITION: These polls were taken before Obama's march to the right.
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He has no resume. We're reduced to talking
about his years as a community organizer because that's the last time he did anything. And while people may not be articulating it as such, the older you get, the more you aware you are of what it takes to accomplish something. And what's striking about Obama is that he doesn't accomplish anything. From the time he graduates from law school, to the time he decided to run for the US senate, he literally does nothing. He has two amendments that he authored added to bills which are signed into law. that's it. That's the sum total of his accomplishment
He can't even manage to hold a full time job or plant a garden. I mean, the guy does nothing substantial.
I don't think that is lost on people over 35.
"Someone needs to point out that elephants produce infinitely more shit than donkeys." Brad Mays
Let's not get carried away
with our criticism of the brown prince.
I ain't no supporter of BO, having fallen off the bus pretty much for good after his 20004 election to the US Senate. But I can personally testify that right after Harvard Law he DID serve as state director of Project VOTE Illinois back in 1992, and with a very competent and experienced staff of which I was part, ran a voter registration drive that signed up 130,000 people in about eleven weeks. That was something not everybody could have done.
Bruce Dixon www.blackagendareport.com
"If you want that good feeling that comes from doing things for other people, then you have to pay for it in abuse and misunderstanding" Zora Neale Hurston, from Moses, Man of the Mountain
Bruce Dixon www.blackagendareport.com
i agree with Bruce
blind bashing is as bad as blind support.
P.S. your Black Agenda Report is terrific btw,
i go there every Wednesday and read it all.
keep your good work and thank you!
Thanks for the info
...on Obama's Project VOTE work in Illinois. I think the amorphous "community organizer" title, while helping him gain progressive support and craft a heroic image, has probably served to undermine him in some ways as well. "Community organizer" can mean anything and I think that was the likely point when the campaign decided describe his work after college that way rather than being more explicit about the various things he's done and worked on. I'm not sure if it's been an intentional decision by the campaign or not but his Project VOTE work (everything he's done since Harvard Law, really) has sort of been blended into his role of community organizer.
Actually, now that I think about it most folks make it sound as though he did his community organizing after law school instead of between college and law school so it may be an intentional meme of him sacrificing to serve the community.... hmmmm
Oh and I concur with inna regarding BAR. Great work!
PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!
"among those 50 to 64, Obama is losing by a whopping 18 points"
IIRC, Senator Clinton did well with this age group. It could be that "Senator Obama is lagging behind the much vaunted and highly praised “generic” democrat" because most voters recognize a DINO
when they see one.
Obama's rightward tilt was always obvious (think Social Security scaremongering, and proposal to discuss health care policy on CSPAN with the Insurance providers and other stakeholders). Now, instead of being merely obvious, he's escalated to blatant.
It may be a Democrat year... too bad there's no Democrat running!
Basement Angel makes a good point
Sen. Obama has a thinner resume than Dan Quayle had when he ran for Vice-President in '88.
Bruce Dixon
A little off topic but, why do some voter registration drives work and others not work?
In the case of Chicago...
its sucess was based on a lack of effort in previous election cycles.
(i.e. the less of an effort you put into voter registration this year, the better a voter registration drive will look next year.)
Chicago Mayor Harold Washington had done amazingly well by registering and turnout out black voters, but when he died in 1987, the effort to register black voters fell apart, as the Daley machine regained control of Chicago politics.
So, when Carol Moseley Braun won the Democratic nomination for US Senate, all the factors for a hugely successful voter registration drive were there -- 4 years of little effort put into registering black voters, and an African American running for the US Senate for the first time.
depends on the individual case that works, or doesn't
I have seen some much ballyhooed VR drives that were actually nothing but media buys, no boots on the ground. There is a certain class of consultants who really believe, (or can really sell the idea) that they can do everything with media.
Sometimes the media buys and messages have been really bad on their own terms, but hey, if you're the son or nephew of the mayor of Atlanta for example, when the Dem party "coordinated campaign" VR money becomes available, you're in the pipe, you get the call before somebody who could have actually done the job.
Sometimes the "on the ground" money goes to incompetents and hacks who just have no idea how to recruit and enlist and organize. If you are not an organizer, you are limited to the folks you can sign up with your own two hands. Some are too lazy and uncreative to even get that done.
And sometimes VR money, especially in "coordinated campaigns", goes to local political organizations whose longevity actually depends on a low-turnout model, particularly in Democratic primary elections. During 1992, Barack had to actually hand cash to "regular Democratic organizations" in some neighborhoods just so they would not squawk to City Hall too loudly about the fact that we were recruiting, funding and training their local grassroots opposition to carry the registration drive, since the regulars would not, could not do it.
Bruce Dixon www.blackagendareport.com
"If you want that good feeling that comes from doing things for other people, then you have to pay for it in abuse and misunderstanding" Zora Neale Hurston, from Moses, Man of the Mountain
Bruce Dixon www.blackagendareport.com
Oh, and you need a reason ,
a serious reason to register and vote. A compelling cause or candidate or combination of the two. Without that you cannot tap the well of enthusiasm and good will that the organizer depends upon to get the job done.
Bruce Dixon www.blackagendareport.com
"If you want that good feeling that comes from doing things for other people, then you have to pay for it in abuse and misunderstanding" Zora Neale Hurston, from Moses, Man of the Mountain
Bruce Dixon www.blackagendareport.com
Its not so much a lack of 'accomplishments'..
its his lack of the kind of 'life' experience that prepares you for greater responsibility.
By the time you are 50, you've been through enough of a 'career' to know how important 'hands on' experience is -- and you've dealt with bosses who are better at sucking up to their superiors than they are at leading their subordinates, or with 'restructuring' based on 'consultants' who don't understand that there is a reason for the inefficiencies and redundancies in your company (i.e. people screw up, and the inefficiencies and redundancies keep the impact of these screw ups to a minimum).
Barack Obama is that guy who is going to "change" things without having the first clue what it is he is actually going to be changing. Those of us who are 50 plus know that this guy is full of shit -- that he doesn't understand the company, doesn't understand the product, and is going to screw up a system that, while imperfect, does get the job done.
Bruce = alright then. He runs a voter reg drive
and then proceeds to do nothing until he decides to run for the US senate. If you'd like to provide us with a list of other accomplishments in between him running the voter reg drive and decided to run for the US senate, I, for one, would love to see it. I do know about the amendments to bills in the Illinois senate, but know of no others.
I think you're assuming that he accomplished when in point of fact, he didn't.
"Someone needs to point out that elephants produce infinitely more shit than donkeys." Brad Mays
It's not my job
to defend the guy. My problems with him actually started when he was in the IL state senate.
Asking me for a list of his accomplishments, and assuming I think it's a really long one is kind of laughable. You must not be familiar with Black Agenda Report, or any of the many tens of thousands of words we've written on the guy since 2003. I invite you to google my name and his and see what you get.
I just would have been less than honest to put up dozens of posts on a board where I leave unanswered the baseless claim on someone's part that the brown prince never ever did anything worthwhile at all when I was actually there & on the crew back in the day when he actually did do something pretty much right from start to finish. Obama was project director, and my direct supervisor that season. I was one of three field organizers responsible for getting it done.
That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it.
Bruce Dixon www.blackagendareport.com
"If you want that good feeling that comes from doing things for other people, then you have to pay for it in abuse and misunderstanding" Zora Neale Hurston, from Moses, Man of the Mountain
Bruce Dixon www.blackagendareport.com
Bruce Dixon, let me chime in on saying your Black Agenda Report
is definitely worth visting and reading. When, back in January I realized my horse (Edwards--he had me at healthcare and his announcment in NOLA) in this race was not going to make the finish line, I began seriously investigating Obama and, after learning enough to make me wary, seriously looking into Hillary Clinton (about whom I thought I knew everything--I didn't and was pleasantly surprised. I had initialy actually hoped she would not run, but became a backer),your site was invaluable.
It was not easy to find out anything concrete about Obama's background and political career. Then, of course, I felt I had to vet the writers who did write about him, bcz we've been burned so many ways by the MCM (mainstream corporate media).
Anyway, your site's series on his advisers really made me look twice, three time, four times at them and what they might mean to an Obama presidency.
In truth, I have to say I still don't know with any certainty how he would govern.... I don't know what kind of SCOTUS and federal judges he would nominate. It's like swimming in an unknown river: I don't know where the currents are, how strong they are, where and how they might take me.
Swimming to a new administration....
I do know I can never vote for a Repub, but what will I do I do not know as yet.
Bruce, it was your statement
that we shouldn't get carried away, as if one voter reg project is somehow at odds with what i was saying. From 91 or so, until 2000, I can think of about 3 professional accomplishments that he has, and no personal ones. Yes, i shoulda mentioned voter reg.
I'm familiar with your site. I like it. And I like the fact that sites that were previously less visible, and have great writing, are getting more attention in the aftermath of this campaign.
"Someone needs to point out that elephants produce infinitely more shit than donkeys." Brad Mays
why little support from 50+ voters?
They need social security and universal health care, and Obama's made it clear that he wants to experiment (at least) with social security, and he has little interest in univeral health care.
corrente's "know your candidate series"
aka: know the provenance of your party's nominee - BEFORE you vote!!
aka: hey, dude, take of those tinted glasses.
1.boston globe
2.this article is amplified at noquarter
be sure and watch the video accompanying the globe article and look at the photos in the noquarter article.
a personal word -
i am quite confident that obama has been involved, at least peripherally, in illinois and chicago corruption,
but the larger issue here is obama's lack of political experience and his phenomenal ability to duck and dodge.
bruce dixon
i enjoy black agenda report.
it was one of the very first weblogs i read that criticized obama, hard but fairly i thought. criticism that seemed to come from someone who actually seemed have some personal knowledge of obama the politician.
unless memory fails, yours was the website where i first saw that very funny "picture" of abraham lincoln obama - top hat and all, presumably referring back to obama's hokey "springfield (illinois) declaration." thanks
me too--BAR is great--
it brings important -- and usually absent -- voices to wider attention. We need more of that--always.
perfect-"Progressives for Obama were made to look like chumps"
"... It is easy to berate Obama and the rest of the Democratic leadership for their craven behavior, but it time for Obama supporters to also be called to account for their complicity in the charade. A group calling themselves Progressives for Obama announced their formation on March 24, 2008. While campaigning in the Pennsylvania primary on March 28, 2008, Senator Obama announced that he would have a foreign policy akin to the first President Bush and Ronald Reagan.
Progressives for Obama were made to look like chumps in less than one week. ..." -- http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=682&Itemid=1
they're not anti-Democrat; they're just not impressed w/
Obama--he offers people nothing. (and boomers are selfish--they expect to be catered to, and paid attention to--unlike Xers and the Silent Generation)
Obama is running against their whole lives--denigrating all the things they look back on as their grand achievements--women in the workforce, "culture wars", the freedom to live as you choose, etc -- all "divisive", "partisan", hot-button issues and fights that Obama denigrates and dismisses.
I'll take a stab at this
Maybe it was because the Obama marketing team made Brand Obama attractive to YOUNG, COLLEGE educated, creative class people Or as I like to call them, the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Models with PhDs in Architecture class. Now, I was born at the tail end of the Baby Boom and in many ways, I straddle a generational divide. I can remember quite clearly the year when I could wear pants to school and didn't have to look forward to years of Home Ec. And I'll tell you what: I sure didn't like the Obamaphiles characterizing me as old, stupid and uncreative. But Obama is in a bit of a bind here because if he courts the boomers, even the late boomers like me, he will look uncool to the people who broughr him this far. You know, the ones that are the smarter, prettier, more creative, successful and YOUNGER people. No, they wouldn't like that. it would make Obama look, I dunno, OLD. Like maybe he too is one of the generation straddlers like me and not really one of them.
Come together at The Confluence
Come together at The Confluence
So why are those older than Boomers
--parents of boomers and older siblings of boomers, if you will-- giving Obama support at pretty much the same rate as those who are younger than boomers?
PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!
i don't think they are--
most old people are more republican than democrat by number, and even boomers are as well, i think.
and Obama lost most old people, outside of AA communities--they either went Hillary or don't vote in Democratic primaries.
It's higher-income older boomers who went Obama, but i don't think it was a majority of those either.
I dunno
...the article splits support this way: Obama trailed McCain by 9 points among both 18-to-34-year-old white voters and those 65 and older. He lagged by 10 points among 35-to-49-year-old whites. But among those 50 to 64, Obama is losing by a whopping 18 points, 51 percent to 33 percent.
So it looks like those white voters over 65 are voting the same way as youth voters. It's the boomer segment where his support flounders (he loses 18 points to McCain there). The tail end boomers you mention are voting with younger voters and the over 65's.
PB 2.0 - Supplement the wonk!
Obama too--& me---all tail-end of boom--
tons of us are (altho our lives have usually been more X-ish than boomer--we enjoyed the freedom and sex and stuff--the cultural fruits of the older boomers--but not the yuppie/hippie parts)