Jerome Armstrong has an interesting post on the delegate situation if MI & FL are included (see http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/24/6224…).

FWIW, I think the advice for Obama to ignore Clinton has disaster written all over it. It’s divisive for the party (he needs her supporters if he’s the nominee). It will end up making him look weak, he’s doing this after a double digit loss making it looks like a sign of weakness, not a sign of strength. I suspect the remaining voters might not like the implication their votes don’t count.

I’m happy to have both candidates train more fire on McCain, but if Obama thinks by acting like he’s the nominee is going to be enough to beat Clinton, I suspect he’s very wrong.

Via a MYDD diary, looks like if MI is seated it will be even more heavily pro-Clinton than the voting was. Obama may have screwed himself by refusing a revote - http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art…

Here’s a comment on dKos that I thought was particularly interesting:

http://dailykos.com/comments/2008/4/24/9…

I think what has many people frustrated and exhausted is the fact that a few short weeks ago the Democratic party appeared to be on a tremendous tidal wave of national emotion, a kind of momentum that might have carried a progressive into the White House, slowed only by the bumps and rocks of a Republican opponent, but not enough to stem the tide.

Instead, however, the has-already-lost Democratic opponent has killed this momentum, ground the enthusiasm down to nothing, and stopped the tide before a Republican even takes the shot.

All of that will have to be rebuilt and it can never provide the same kind of narrative that it would have had Hillary stepped aside and let it take its course.

And now she is attempting not only to kill that narrative outright but to make sure that there is no chance that the peoples’ voices will even matter.

Yes, Obama is in need of a reboot. It’s because Hillary has clawed at the power switch and gnawed at the cables trying desperately to knock Obama, Democratic voters, and Independent voters offline and keep them that way until the Republicans can win.

Hillary has sapped the national mojo.

But more seriously, there’s a feeling among Obama supporters that what I’ll call “inspirational politics” is what the country needs, but Hillary has forced what should have been a (mythic?) “narrative” of a groundswell of emation down to the nitty-gritty earth. This comment reflects the sense of loss that comes with the slowing down of inspirational momentum.

Oh, and another one on the same diary that encapsulates the feeling:

http://dailykos.com/comments/2008/4/24/9…

…it’s about us

Obama is the netroots candidate, the 50-state strategy candidate, the anti-DLC candidate, the intellectual candidate.

I personally could care less about him per se… He represents us. Many people call him an empty vessel. I say it is full of our hopes and dreams.

If Hillary Clinton won the nomination, she would destroy everything that we worked so hard for… Our movement lives or dies with his candidacy. He has to win it all, period… ’cos through his candidacy, we are ALL running for president!

http://dailykos.com/comments/2008/4/24/9…

[Older Dems need to think about] the future of their party. We have a huge new influx of youg Dem voters who will be totally disenchanted with the party if they feel that they’ve been shut down by the older, blue collar Dems.

I think Obama could do some sort of speech that reminds that demographic about how they felt about JFK—the one time “young guy”. JFK got elected and kept those young energized Dems in the party for YEARS. Obama needs to make clear that’s what we (I’m 47) older types need to do, for the ourselves, for the party, for the country, for the future….

For the record, great diary, excellent points.

It might be smart at this point for Obama to stop campaigning. That way, when he loses in Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, etc, he can say its because he didn’t compete

Just as Clinton ignored all those deep red caucus states and deep red southern states on Super Tuesday because she was focussed on states Dems could win in November, Obama can go on a campaign hiatus, and say he’s concentrating on November now —- that the decision is going to be up to SDs anyway, and the intra-party squabbling isn’t doing either candidate any good.

Its really a smart way for Obama to prevent SDs from looking at any more exit polling data… and he really needs that to happen….

If the commenter could care less, then by definition he cares. If you want to indicate you don’t care, then he should say he could not care less.

At least that’s how English is spoken and understood in my non-intellectual circles.

In KY and WVA. Unless he feels like he has to close the gap or else lose momentum to Clinton that can’t be made up later.

Of course, the problem for Obama is that Clinton is competitive with McCain in Kentucky and especially West Virginia.

Neither of them have a chance in hell of carrying Wyoming and Utah.

All they can see is that “they” are tired of this race. It doesn’t matter that the voters want they race to continue, the Oboiz are tired. The excitement among voters is a lot higher now, than it was in January, when many of these same fools were declaring the race over for Obama.

Why are they afraid of democracy?

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

to the MYDD page, cuz I can’t get that Detroit News Link to load.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/24/1016…

I’d thought it would be his fondest wish to leave the campaign so people would stop bothering him and then he could finish his waffles.

what will they do in October?

BTW - Does Barry realize that being President is even harder work than running for President?

It’s 16+ hours a day, 365 days a year for 4-8 years.

Unless you are G-Dub.

————————————————————————
“McGovern - Mondale - Dukakis - Obama

The few, the lame, the losers

But it’s not just that they are tired of the race. It’s that they believe that the main strength of their campaign is the Mythic Voyage and inspirational politics. With inspirational politics, they thought they could steamroller McCain, who can conveniently be slotted in as the other end of the Myth.

From this point of view, Clinton, as a rival within the same party, has the unique power to sap the mojo from the myth. That is the crime of which they are accusing her. Not *just* of making them tired, but doing what only a party insider can do: destroy the narrative they were building. So that “when” Obama takes the nomination, he won’t have the myth that they were building to arm him against McCain.

but the GOP will try to destroy him.

If the GOP can’t win the election, they want to render the new Democratic President ineffective.

It won’t stop in November. Well, November 2012 maybe.

If the OFB thinks this has been bad, just wait.

————————————————————————
“McGovern - Mondale - Dukakis - Obama

The few, the lame, the losers

From a thread on relative rally size:

http://dailykos.com/comments/2008/4/23/1…

It’s not that they don’t turn up; they probably do. It’s the constituencies of the two candidates. Hillary attracts the kind of person who doesn’t go to rallies; who isn’t particularly politically active. They show up every 4 years, vote for the name they know and then go on with their lives. Obama attracts the netroots and the grassroots; the kind of person who pays attention.

This is what explains both the difference in rally sizes and the non-correlation to the vote totals.

That Hillary’s voters don’t turn up for rallies is an indication that her voters are low-information.

myiq2xu (great handle, by the way, it reminds me of Tracy Jordan’s “inscrutable” vanity license plate on 30 Rock):

The OFB has long believed that the GOP was a spent force, and that they could use the Myth to nip any GOP resistance in the bud. That they had found the formula to buy out the media.

But to nip the GOP smear campaign in the bud, *assuming* such a thing is at all possible, even the most blind Obamafan would be able to tell you that there are only a few opportunities. That opportunity was best seized when Obama was running at his highest level of triumph. ie, the Mythic Voyage was at its peak.

Only a continued primary campaign could destroy that moment. NOW, believes the OFB, Obama is vulnerable as he would not have been if the campaign had ended at its “correct” endpoint, Super Tuesday.

And, therefore, the “blue-collar” voters of the party clearly still do not know what’s good for them. And consequently, Obama’s evaluation of them is itself validated by the continuation of Hillary’s candidacy.

The go in carloads to every rally that is within driving range.

Most college students are younger and without family and full-time job responsibilites. Colleges are natural organizing points as well.

Us old farts are more dispersed, tied down and tired. But we can read, work a mouse and use a remote. We’re not “low-information,” just lazy.

Rallies are for the faithful, not the seekers, so they don’t change minds.

————————————————————————
“McGovern - Mondale - Dukakis - Obama

The few, the lame, the losers

Obama does do larger venues, but Clinton’s rallies are nothing to sneeze at either. I’ve been to both several times. Obama’s shades younger, while Clinton’s have a generally older audience and are more heavily Hispanic, at least here in Texas.

I’m quite confused about the “grassroots”. Where I sit, the activist base has usually consisted of women and many of them well past college age. I’ll grant Obama the netroots, but not the grassroots. That’s why this election is basically tied.

esp in Western and Midwestern states, i think…Idaho and Wyoming and those kinds of places had full stadiums (20k or more attending, i think) but only 10k or less participants in their caucuses.

I tried to see him when he came to a venue near me. Not having a TV, I had no idea that Obamamania existed to the extent it did. So, I thought, “As if any Americans care about politics anyway” and imagined I could show up late, watch for 5 minutes, and go back to work.

Silly me.

I guess my exclusion served a good cause since I can’t vote even if I wanted to. Being a Canuck is equivalent to having committed a felony in the US :)

ever since 2000, many of us have been thinking about moving up there—seriously. You’re the America we should have become, but didn’t (esp for those of us who grew up in the Free to Be You and Me era).

I hate to burst your bubble, but we have a Little Bush in power up here and despite his minority government, no end in sight. And this Little Bush is actually a clever little neocon rodent.

Canada is getting screweder by the day.

a strong Parliament, and effective checks and balances, and a population who won’t allow privatizing of health, etc, right?

he’s hobbled in ways Bush should have been but wasn’t, i think.

Our Presidents inherently are more powerful than your Prime Ministers i think—for good and for bad.

I get a load of America-bashing, much of it well deserved to be sure, but the holier-than-thou aspect from some critics really pisses me off. The neocon BS is like the flu, just spreads from one place to another and now it’s Canada’s turn; pity.

Love to have you write about some of what’s going on. The latest Keystone Kops with the Election Commission, the half-baked stonewalling and press manipulaion makes a terrific story. I’ve been taking notes but you should be the one telling it not me - local authority and all. After the obscene amount of money being spent down here, just the dollar amounts being disputed in your charming country will be fascinating enough.

We Yanks should know our neighbor better than we do. Please?

PA, NC, and now LA too— the GOP has a 50-state strategy against him and against all downticket people too. — http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0…

“
His aides also directly dismissed concerns that his relative weakness among working-class white voters — a constant since at least February — should cause superdelegates to doubt his viability in November.

“The white working class has gone to the Republican nominee for many elections, going back even to the Clinton years. This is not new that Democratic candidates don’t rely solely on those votes,” his chief strategist, David Axelrod, told National Public Radio.” — http://www.politico.com/news/stories/040…

I’ve been living in the US for 3-4 years. I only go back to visit. That’s why I don’t blog as much anymore either, out of touch.

But I can point you to some awesome blogs that do this on a regular basis. For one thing, there is POGGE. www.pogge.ca

Some of the people who write POGGE are real-life friends.

I myself very occasionally blog at politblogo.typepad.com

I used to blog much more frequently but I’m a very reactive sort and prefer commenting on other people’s blogs.

You know they really should read Krugman. He broke it all down for them, that no really, working class voters have gone Democratic, they were just outnumbered.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

the majority of Dems are poorer and lowerclass i believe (and far more diverse by all measures than Repubs). We more accurately reflect the national population—making 50k or less, union members somewhere in the family within living memory, employees and not owners or managers, etc.

(Someone correct me if i’m wrong tho)

And our actions and policies and programs and greatest successes have always helped those giant groups—instead of owners or big corps, for the most part. We even help those deluded poor Repubs who vote against their own well-being.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006…

(from 06)

>He has to win it all, period… ’cos through his candidacy, we are ALL running for president!

Personally, I don’t actually want the vitriolic and dishonest posters who have dominated DK for the last few months to be President.

I’m not sure why Obama is still running. Could have something to do with the Kennedy machine and their ability to screw up “in the bag races” (remember RFK usurping McCarthy in the same way that Obama is doing with Hillary? replete with the speechwriter)

I have no idea why old people are allowed to vote. The cut off should be 26 for women and 65 for men.
Jeez why are women allowed to vote period then they wouldn’t be able to run for president.

Some of the Democrats better show McCain how to make chicken soup to spoon feed Obama if Hillary is not there to gently guide him.

Carville annihilated Judason in the debates tonight on Larry King. I thought Richardson sounded like a moron. Thank god none of the New Mexico voters is from Michigan, would hate to have that whiner be my Governor. (Go Granholm!)

Yes Michigan selected delegates and from all accounts that I heard the majority of the delegates that went to the Union halls were Obamakins. Hillary’s votes did receive hillarians. I think that the Detroit News perspective of the events is greatly exaggerated. But then the Detroit papers have been saying that Obama says, McCain derides and Hillary chastises for more than a month, hence confirming that yellow journalism is alive and well at least in the great lakes state.

I think it’s time that you packed your suitcase, put tinkerbelle in her gilded cage where she belongs and head back to the magical castle where you reside Obama. Just follow the yellow brick road you might find some obamakins on your way.

Democrats never agree on anything, that’s why they’re Democrats. If they agreed with each other,they’d be Republicans — Will Rogers